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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Republicans and Democrats have finalized their nominees for South Carolina’s 1st District, an open seat after Nancy Mace’s unsuccessful gubernatorial run.
Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt, a Charleston County councilwoman, will face Democrat Nancy Lacore, a retired three-star Navy rear admiral, in the November general election.
Forecast markets suggest Republicans remain heavy favorites, but an open seat introduces uncertainty in a midterm environment.
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Voters along South Carolina’s coast will decide whether to extend Republican control or return the district to Democratic hands.
Newsweek reached out to Honeycutt and Lacore for comment via email on Wednesday morning.
Key Points
- Prediction markets currently give Republicans a 70 to 73 percent chance of holding the seat, versus 27 to 31 percent for Democrats
- The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6, signaling a built-in Republican advantage
- President Donald Trump carried the district by double-digit margins, reinforcing its GOP tilt
- Lacore raised more than $1.6 million by early June, signaling early financial competitiveness
- A Democratic-sponsored poll of likely voters showed a Republican candidate leading by just 3 points
- Democrats last won the seat in the 2018 midterm wave, underscoring a potential—if narrow—path
Why It Matters
South Carolina’s 1st District sits at the intersection of structural Republican strength and periodic volatility seen in midterm cycles.
With an open seat and national attention growing, the race reflects broader questions about whether Democrats can expand the House map beyond traditional battlegrounds.
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What To Know
The race for South Carolina’s coastal 1st District has entered a new phase after both parties settled their nominees in late June runoffs. Both candidates emerged from crowded primaries earlier in June and then secured their nominations in the June 23 runoff contests.
Despite the open seat, the fundamentals still favor Republicans. The Cook Political Report assigns the district a R+6 partisan rating, meaning it typically votes six points more Republican than the nation as a whole.
That advantage has translated into consistent GOP performance.
The district has been held by Republicans for decades, aside from a brief Democratic win in 2018, and Trump has carried it by double-digit margins—including around 13 points in prior cycles, according to race analyses.
Still, Democrats see an opening. Open seats tend to be more competitive than races with incumbents, and early signals—particularly a December 2025 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling—hinted at possible volatility.
That poll, conducted December 5 to 6, 2025, surveyed 645 likely voters and showed Republican Mark Smith leading Democrat Mac Deford by just 3 points, 39 percent to 36 percent.
However, that survey predates the final candidate field. It was also sponsored by the Democratic candidate, meaning it should be treated with caution, given the potential for partisan bias.
Financially, Democrats are attempting to close the gap. Federal Election Commission filings show Lacore raised over $1.63 million between January and early June 2026, with more than $1.35 million already spent.
That early fundraising haul—driven largely by individual donors—suggests national interest in the race, even in a district that leans Republican.
Chances On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts based on expected outcomes, offer another lens into the race.
On Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, Republicans are priced at around 73 percent likelihood of winning, compared with 27 percent for Democrats.
Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, shows similar sentiment, with Republicans near 70 percent and Democrats at roughly 31 percent.
These markets aggregate the views of traders willing to risk money on outcomes. They can capture real-time sentiment and incorporate new information quickly. However, they are not traditional forecasts—volumes can be relatively small, and prices may reflect trader behavior as much as underlying political reality.
Broadly, both markets point to the same conclusion: Republicans are favored, but not guaranteed to win.
Who Is Nancy Lacore? Admiral Fired in Hegseth Purge Wins Democratic Primary
Lacore enters the race with one of the more unusual profiles among 2026 House challengers.
A retired three-star Navy rear admiral, Lacore previously led tens of thousands of personnel and served in senior roles in Washington.
Her military career ended after she was removed during a purge of senior officers under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Now, she is attempting to translate that background into a political argument.
“I can offer something different,” Lacore told News 2 after securing the nomination. “I’ve got experience operating between parties and getting things done.”
Her campaign has emphasized bipartisan credentials, national security experience, and economic concerns such as affordability and infrastructure.
Democrats hope that profile could appeal to moderate voters in a district where ideological edges matter less than candidate perceptions.
Who Is Jenny Costa Honeycutt?
Republican nominee Honeycutt offers a more traditional GOP profile rooted in local politics. A Charleston County councilwoman, she has framed her campaign around conservative governance, infrastructure priorities, and economic growth.
Honeycutt has described herself as “unapologetically conservative” and pledged to champion President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda in Congress.
In one campaign ad, Honeycutt introduced herself as a mother, business owner and “proven conservative,” saying: “I’ve got 28 seconds to tell you what I stand for. No new tax increases. Make Trump tax cuts permanent and pass a balanced-budget amendment. Fix our infrastructure.”
At the same time, her messaging has focused on local concerns—roads, growth, and quality of life in the Lowcountry—rather than national party battles.
“People want somebody that they can relate to,” she said, emphasizing her background as a business owner and local official.
Her blend of ideological alignment and local focus is typical of candidates in districts where national politics matters, but retail connections with voters still carry weight.
Why the Seat Was Vacated by Nancy Mace
The race is open because Republican Representative Nancy Mace chose not to seek reelection, instead running for governor of South Carolina—a bid that ultimately fell short.
Mace had represented the district since 2021, after defeating Democrat Joe Cunningham, who himself had flipped the seat during the 2018 midterms.
Her departure removes the advantages of incumbency, including name recognition and established fundraising networks, but does not erase the district’s Republican lean.
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The Political Geography: A Republican-Leaning Seat
South Carolina’s 1st District stretches along the coast, including Charleston and surrounding Lowcountry communities.
Demographically and politically, it has become more competitive over time, thanks in part to population growth and an influx of new residents.
But its underlying partisan lean remains Republican.
That explains why the Democrats’ path is narrow. Even competitive races typically require favorable national conditions, strong candidates, and a shift among independent voters.
What Happens Next
With both nominees set, the race now shifts toward the November 3 general election, where Republicans begin as the clear favorites in a district long tilted their way.
Democrats, however, are looking to capitalize on the volatility of an open seat and possible midterm dynamics that could narrow the gap.
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