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By Daniel Orton
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Former Alabama Senator Doug Jones would face staggering odds in a rumored bid to reclaim statewide power in next year's gubernatorial race, according to a new poll out this week.
A survey by the GOP-aligned polling firm Cygnal showed Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville holding a commanding 19-point lead in a hypothetical matchup with Jones, a Democrat, whom he unseated as senator in the 2020 election, underscoring just how difficult a Democratic comeback remains in one of the nation’s most reliably red states.
Why It Matters
The potential rematch between Jones and Tuberville carries major implications for Alabama politics and the broader American political landscape.
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Alabama is considered one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, and a competitive race here would test the depth of Democratic gains highlighted by recent election cycles. The speculation comes as Jones, the last Democrat to win a major statewide race in Alabama, hinted at a 2026 challenge to Tuberville for the governor's office.
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What To Know
The Cygnal poll of 605 likely Alabama voters shows Tuberville ahead 53 percent to 34 percent. The survey, conducted November 12–13, suggests Jones would enter the race with little room to maneuver in a state where voters continue to strongly favor both conservative politics and President Donald Trump.
Tuberville’s edge is broad across key groups. He leads 57–36 among high-propensity voters—those who participated in the last four elections—and captures swing voters by a 2-to-1 margin. Undecided voters also lean heavily Republican, breaking 43–26 for a generic GOP candidate, and identify as 56 percent conservative, compared to just 6 percent liberal.
The poll also found that two-thirds of Alabama voters said the recent federal government shutdown did not affect them personally, a sentiment driven largely by Republicans and independents. Meanwhile, Trump maintains a solid footing in the state, with a 56 percent approval rating on his handling of the economy, reinforcing the broader political environment that complicates any Democratic comeback bid.
Cygnal’s memo concludes that if Jones enters the race, he would do so as a significant underdog, facing “impossible odds” against Tuberville.
Jones served as a senator from Alabama from 2018 to 2021, earning the seat in the 2017 special election, a major upset over Roy Moore. However, Jones was defeated in 2020 by Tuberville, who secured 60 percent of the vote. Now, Jones has signaled an interest in a political comeback, this time eyeing the governor’s mansion rather than a return to the Senate.
During a town hall event in Birmingham on November 8, Jones responded to direct questions about a gubernatorial run with, “Stay tuned,” drawing cheers from the audience.
On the political mood among Democrats, Jones said, “If we can find credible candidates, we can make them competitive. This is the opportunity to build because we have the wind at our backs."
Multiple Democratic sources quoted in media reports believe Jones is likely to announce a bid for governor in the coming weeks. Tuberville, meanwhile, currently holds a substantial fundraising advantage, with campaign filings showing more than $7.7 million raised.
What People Are Saying
Josh Coleman, chairman of the Jefferson County Democratic Party, told al.com: “If [Jones] decides to run, I’ll be excited...I think that anybody who wants to offer themselves for public office should do so. He’s no stranger to the political landscape here in Alabama.”
Alabama Republican Representative Dale Strong said on The Dale Jackson Show: “[Jones is] begging for punishment, trying to relive past history...I promise you this right here, Tommy Tuberville is fixing to be the next governor of the state of Alabama."
What Happens Next
Tuberville enters the race as the incumbent senator, MAGA-aligned figure, and the leading Republican candidate for governor, with significant resources and party support. Jones would be positioned as the lead challenger for the Democratic nomination, but the outcome will depend on his ability to mobilize voters, attract national support, and redefine the political calculus in a state where his party has struggled in recent cycles.
Official campaign announcements and filings are expected in the coming weeks. The primary elections are scheduled for May 2026, and national attention will likely intensify if the race remains competitive.
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