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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Democrats have gained an encouraging late boost in the battle for the Senate, with new polling placing their candidates ahead in three races that could shape control of the chamber.
A new Data for Progress survey gives Troy Jackson a 50 percent to 45 percent lead in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed a 50 percent to 46 percent edge in Michigan, and James Talarico a 49 percent to 45 percent advantage in Texas.
Polling captures opinion during a specific period rather than predicting an election result.
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Each survey carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning the apparent Senate leads should be treated as narrow rather than decisive.
Voters in those states face sharply contrasting choices, although each Democratic advantage is close enough to the survey’s margin of error that the races remain competitive.
Newsweek emailed the Republican and Democratic campaigns in each of these three Senate races requesting further comment on Saturday morning.
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Why It Matters
The three-state picture offers Democrats an encouraging final-week snapshot in contests with different political dynamics: a challenge to a longtime incumbent, an open-seat race and a bid to break through in Republican-leaning Texas.
Key Points
- Democrats also lead the gubernatorial contests in Maine and Michigan, while Republican Greg Abbott holds a one-point edge in Texas.
- President Donald Trump is viewed unfavorably by 62 percent of Maine voters, 59 percent in Michigan and 53 percent in Texas.
- Democratic Party ratings remain underwater despite the candidates’ strength, with net favorability of minus 4 in Maine, minus 2 in Michigan and minus 10 in Texas.
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Maine Democrat Challenges A Six-Term Bid
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson is trying to unseat Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.
Seventy-eight percent of decided respondents said they were definitely supporting their chosen Senate candidate, while 14 percent described their choice as probable and 8 percent were still considering their options.
The statewide survey was conducted from October 23 to 27 among 652 likely voters using SMS, live callers and web panels. Its sample was weighted by demographic and political characteristics.
In the governor’s contest, former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree receives 49 percent, compared with 37 percent for lawyer Robert Charles and 7 percent for independent Rick Bennett; another 6 percent are unsure or refused to answer.
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Michigan’s Open Seat Leans Democratic
Former Detroit Health Department executive director Abdul El-Sayed is running against former Republican Representative Mike Rogers for a seat without an incumbent.
Minor-party candidates register no more than 1 percent apiece, while 3 percent of respondents remain undecided or declined to state a preference. Among those backing a candidate, 76 percent describe their support as definite.
Data for Progress surveyed 622 likely Michigan voters from October 23 to 25 through SMS, live-caller interviews and web panels. The sample was weighted to reflect the anticipated electorate.
Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson takes 52 percent in the governor’s race, against 43 percent for Republican Representative John James; the remaining named contenders each attract 1 percent or less.
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Texas Produces Two Close Contests
Democratic state Representative James Talarico is competing with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 2 percent and 4 percent unsure.
Four in five decided voters call their support definite, suggesting limited room for movement even though the topline difference falls within the poll’s sampling uncertainty.
The Texas survey covered 712 likely voters from October 23 to 26, using SMS and web-panel responses. It was weighted by age, gender, education, race, geography and recalled presidential vote.
While the Democratic Senate candidate is narrowly ahead, the governor’s contest points in the opposite direction: Greg Abbott receives 48 percent as he seeks a fourth term, with Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa on 47 percent.
What Happens Next
The surveys show Democratic candidates in contention across three distinct battlegrounds, but their statistical closeness leaves the outcome dependent on turnout and late voter decisions.
Election Day will provide the test that polling cannot: which campaigns successfully convert support into ballots.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.
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