Democrats' Chances of Beating Republicans in Georgia Again: Polls

With the November midterm election less than five months away, Democrats aim to maintain their momentum from 2020 and hope to beat Republicans in Georgia once again.

President Joe Biden narrowly beat former President Donald Trump in Georgia by a little more than 12,000 votes—a margin of 0.2 percentage points. That made Biden the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in the conservative state since 1992.

Simultaneously, Democratic Senators Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff defeated Republican incumbents to flip their seats blue during a runoff election last January. Prior to their elections, Georgia had last elected a Democrat to represent the state in the Senate back in 1996.

However, recent polls show it could be an uphill battle for Democrats to hold power in the state—particularly as Biden and his party face low approval ratings nationwide.

Stacey Abrams and Raphael Warnock
Democrats aim to maintain their momentum and win big in Georgia again in 2022. Above to the left, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks to the media during a press conference as voters headed to the polls during Georgia's primary on May 24 in Atlanta. Above to the right, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock attends a gala on February 19 in Atlanta. Joe Raedle/Paras Griffin/Getty Images

The race for the governor's mansion and the contest to hold onto Warnock's hard won Senate seat are being closely monitored by Democrats and Republicans alike. While Democrats aim to maintain and expand their winning streak, Republicans hope to ward off their advance and win back the Senate seat they lost in the 2021 runoff election.

When it comes to the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp faces a second challenge from former Democratic state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who previously lost to the GOP politician in 2018. Recent polling shows the prominent Democrat may again find the path to victory difficult to achieve.

The current Real Clear Politics average of Georgia polls shows Abrams trailing Kemp by about 5.2 percent. The incumbent Republican is backed by about 49.6 percent of Georgians compared to 44.4 percent who support the Democratic candidate.

Meanwhile, the most recent poll conducted by East Carolina University from June 6 to 9 shows similar results, with Abrams being down by five points. Kemp is backed by 50 percent of registered Georgia voters while the Democratic hopeful is supported by just 45 percent. The survey included 868 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

Warnock looks somewhat better-positioned to fend off his GOP challenger, Herschel Walker. However, the Democratic senator and his Republican opponent, who has been endorsed by Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, are virtually tied.

Real Clear Politics' average currently shows Walker with a narrow lead of less than one point. The Republican hopeful has the support of about 47.2 percent of Georgians while the Democratic incumbent is backed by about 46.6 percent.

The most recent survey for the election by East Carolina University shows that Walker and Warnock are both backed by 46 percent of Georgia's registered voters.

Notably, if Warnock does lose to Walker, that GOP victory may shift the balance of power in the Senate. With the legislative chamber evenly split, Democrats losing just one seat without simultaneously picking up another one held by a Republican would be enough for the GOP to take back the majority.

The same East Carolina University poll shows that Biden's approval rating in the southern state is deep underwater. A majority (54 percent) of Georgians disapprove of the Democratic president's job performance. Only 38 percent approve.

An early April poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill showed the president's approval rating underwater as well. That survey showed 49 percent of registered voters in Georgia disapprove of him. Just 42 percent approved of the job Biden was doing. The poll included 1,013 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Whether Democrats can ultimately pull off victories in the two high profile statewide races in Georgia, as well as others for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state remains to be seen. However, the recent polling data shows the months ahead will be challenging as they pitch their agenda to voters.