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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrats and Republicans are engaged in a close race for control of the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll from The New York Times, which showed single-digit races in six GOP-held states Democrats must win in November to flip the chamber.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats are optimistic about their chances of reclaiming a House majority. But their Senate map is tougher. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Democrats have few easy targets this year and must win seats in states that backed President Donald Trump by double digits to flip the Senate.
The poll from the Times, Siena University and the Portland Press Herald suggested that several key Senate races are close, about four months out from the election. Other polls and prediction markets similarly show a tight race.
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What To Know
- Democrats must flip four seats for a Senate majority in the 2026 midterms.
- Democrats are facing a structural challenge to flip control of the Senate this year. Only Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points, and North Carolina, which he won by 3 points, present clear opportunities for Democratic flips, as no other states he won by single digits or lost are up for grabs. This means they must compete in more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
- The new poll from The New York Times gave Democrats leads in Maine and North Carolina, but Republicans led in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. The parties were tied in Texas. Other pollsters have also produced surveys showing a tight race in each of those states.
- Trump’s declining approval rating over economic issues has given Democrats hope that they could flip the chamber.
Republicans Lead in Key States, But Race Remains Close
In the new poll, Democrats held leads in two states, but they need to flip four to win a majority.
North Carolina presented their strongest lead, with former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, leading former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley by 7 points. Cooper’s support stood at 50 percent, while Whatley’s stood at 43 percent, according to the poll.
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In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins received 47 percent of the vote compared to her progressive Democratic challenger Graham Platner's 49 percent, giving him a 2-point lead over the incumbent.
Texas was the closest of the states polled, with both Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico receiving 47 percent support.
However, Republicans led in three other states.
Republican Senator Dan Sullivan led former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola by 2 points in Alaska. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would vote for Sullivan, compared to Peltola’s 45 percent.
In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson received 48 percent support compared to state Representative Josh Turek’s 46 percent.
Senator Jon Husted, a Republican, led former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown by 3 points in Ohio. Husted’s support stood at 50 percent, compared to Brown’s 47 percent.
Notably, the pollsters only surveyed GOP-held states. Democrats are defending seats in the Trump-won states of Georgia and Michigan, as well as light-blue New Hampshire.
The poll surveyed 3,659 likely voters across the six states from June 15-29, 2026.
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, compared the midterms to 2006, when the economy was struggling, and the Republican administration faced criticism over the Iraq war, in comments to Newsweek.
“Today's economic conditions for people struggling with high prices and housing difficulties, and what is looking like a full-blown debacle with Iran, should have a good chance of producing the same outcome of the Democrats taking the House,” he said, adding that how much of a landslide it will be remains “unclear.”
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Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek that Republicans will “paint Democrats as part of the new crop of Democratic Socialists with extreme views,” even if candidates in these races are not, while Democrats will seek to tie the GOP to Trump’s economy.
“The Republicans will definitely try to paint these Democratic nominees as being akin to the Democratic Socialists who have won in the deep blue urban districts. However, these states have been particularly affected by the president's handling of the economy, and there is a lot of resentment toward him among even Republican voters,” he said.
A Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) spokesperson responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
"Senate Democrats have better candidates, stronger campaigns, and a winning message — which is exactly why Democratic candidates in purple and red states are out-polling and out-raising their Republican opponents and why Democrats are going to win a majority in November," the statement reads.
Newsweek also reached out to the National Republican Senatorial Committee via email for comment.
Why Democrats Believe They Can Flip the Senate
Trump’s approval rating is a major reason Democrats believe they can compete for control of the Senate in this year’s midterms. His popularity has declined since he returned to office in January 2025 due to economic concerns, including the cost of living and higher gas prices amid the war in Iran.
Jacob Neiheisel, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek that 2026 presents a “very favorable environment for Democrats.”
“Given the political conditions (e.g., midterm, low presidential approval, high prices and a war abroad), it would be very unusual indeed if Democrats didn't have an advantage right now,” he said.
Midterms are generally a referendum on the sitting president, and how people feel about national politics will likely be the “biggest factor” in how they vote in November, he said.
In a strong wave, Democrats may have a shot at flipping those more conservative states, according to Shapiro. However, Democrats must avoid being perceived as too far left after progressives and Democratic socialists have won several recent primaries, he said.
“What could hold them back is their being perceived as moving too far left based on the attention given to a few recent primary elections where far left Democrats won. Republican will try to emphasize and criticize that at every turn,” Shapiro said.
A new poll from YouGov and The Economist, for instance, found that 58 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump, while 38 percent approve of his job performance. Among independent voters, a critical voting bloc, only 25 percent gave him positive marks, while 68 percent disapproved of him.
Meanwhile, the poll found that only 25 percent of Americans believe the economy is in either good or excellent condition, a major warning sign for Republicans, as Americans often vote based on their economic well-being. Democrats believe that could provide them an opening to expand the Senate battleground and win more difficult states this year.
“We are poised to take back the Senate. We needed multiple paths. No one thought Iowa or Texas would be part of the path—but it is,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, told Punchbowl News earlier in June.
Republicans flipped four Senate seats in 2024, giving them their first majority since Democrats reclaimed control of the chamber in 2020. Prior to that, Republicans flipped the chamber in 2014.
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What Polls Show in Key Races
Here is a look at where polling stands in each key race.
Alaska
Alaska backed Trump by 14 points in 2024, and it is traditionally viewed as a more conservative state. But the pro-Democratic national environment and candidacy of Peltola, the only Democrat to represent it statewide in recent years, has given Democrats optimism about their chances of flipping the seat. Alaska has also supported Republicans by increasingly narrow margins over recent election cycles.
The latest poll from Alaska Survey Research showed Peltola up 5 points at 49 percent to Sullivan’s 44 percent. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, but the poll did not ask voters about their second or third choices. It was conducted June 4-7 among 1,393 likely voters.
The Cook Political Report moved Alaska from Lean Republican to a toss-up on Wednesday.
Georgia
In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is set to face Representative Mike Collins in the nation’s newest swing state in November. Collins won the GOP primary this month, but polls give Ossoff an advantage.
Georgia backed Trump by about 2 points in 2024, so Republicans view it as a possible target, but Democrats believe Ossoff’s popularity and Trump’s low approval rating should keep the seat in their hands.
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An Echelon Insights poll showed Ossoff up 7 points at 51 percent to Collins’ 44 percent. It was conducted April 3-9 among 407 likely voters. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters February 28-March 2, showed Ossoff up with 48 percent to Collins’ 43 percent.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Democratic.
Iowa
In a state Trump won by about 13 points, Hinson is facing state legislator Turek in the race to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Once a battleground, Iowa has shifted toward Republicans, but Democrats believe economic fallout of the Iran war and tariffs could make the state competitive.
A recent poll from Global Strategy Group showed Turek with a 2-point lead. The Turek internal poll showed support for Hinson at 47 percent, compared with 45 percent for Turek. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters June 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report views the race as Lean Republican.
Belt said Democrats have a “pretty good chance” in Iowa.
“There are a lot of farmers who are upset about the tariffs and a lot of rural voters upset about the Medicaid cuts. They may not show up to vote or may vote Democratic. I see Iowa as very much in play,” he said.
Maine
Democrats are hopeful about their chances of unseating Collins, a longtime incumbent, with progressive political newcomer Graham Platner. Polls have shown a tightening race, however, after a series of controversies involving Platner. Maine uses ranked choice.
A Fox News poll, conducted by Beach Research and Shaw & Company Research, showed Collins leading among registered voters by 3 points, with 50 percent support compared to Platner’s 47 percent.
Among those who said they were “extremely” motivated to vote, Platner led with 53 percent to Collins’ 44 percent. It surveyed 1,003 registered voters from June 23-27, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
An earlier Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 870 likely voters June 9-11, showed Platner at 46 percent to Collins’ 45. A Tavern Research poll, which surveyed 1,642 likely voters June 5-8, showed him at 51 percent to Collins’ 49.
It’s rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Michigan
The contours of the Michigan race aren’t quite defined, as the primary is set for August. Trump won Michigan by less than 2 percentage points, so both parties view the state as competitive regardless of the national environment.
On the Republican side, former Representative Mike Rogers is viewed as the likely candidate for the general election. Democrats, including Representatives Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow and public health official Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, are facing off in the primary.
The latest poll from Zenith Research favors Democrats—against Rogers, Stevens was up 43 percent to 42 percent, McMorrow ahead 44 percent to 42 percent and El-Sayed led 45 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 602 likely voters June 11-14.
However, a Mitchell Research & Communications poll showed Rogers leading each Democrat: 42-41 over El Sayed, 42-39 over Stevens 42-39 and 43-41 over McMorrow. It surveyed 606 likely voters May 1-7.
The Cook Political Report classifies it as a toss-up.
New Hampshire
Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is viewed as the Democratic front-runner, while former Senator John Sununu and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown are running in the Republican primary.
The latest University of New Hampshire poll showed Pappas leading Brown by 14 points, 52 percent to 38 percent, and Sununu by 7 points, 49-42. It surveyed 1,115 likely voters April 17-21.
Harris carried New Hampshire by about 3 points.
The race is rated Lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report.
North Carolina
Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008, but Cooper’s candidacy as a popular, statewide-elected official has fueled party optimism. He has polled well against Whatley.
A new poll from Catawba College released earlier in June found Cooper with a 14-point lead, 48 percent to 34 percent. Fifteen percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 1,000 North Carolina voters June 1-10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.83 percentage points.
A recent Harper Polling/Carolina Journal poll showed Cooper leading by more than 11 points, with 49.8 percent of respondents saying they would support him in November. Whatley received 38.7 percent of the vote. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters May 10-11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report views the race as Lean Democratic.
Ohio
In Ohio, Brown is seeking a comeback after losing in 2024. He is challenging Husted, who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance. Ohio was once a major battleground but has shifted rightward over the past decade, backing Trump by about 11 points in 2024.
A Fox News poll, conducted by Beach Research and Shaw & Company Research, showed Brown up 8 points at 53 percent to Husted’s 45 percent. It surveyed 1,015 registered voters May 28 to June 1.
A Bowling Green State University poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters April 7-14, showed Husted up 3 points at 50 percent.
It is viewed as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Texas
Texas backed Trump by 14 points last year, but Democrats believe state Representative Talarico will be competitive against Paxton, who has faced some scandals and an impeachment in the state’s GOP-led legislature.
The latest poll from the Texas Politics Project showed Paxton in the lead at 43 percent to Talarico’s 42 percent. Libertarian Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 3 percent said they would vote for someone else. Ten percent were still undecided.
The numbers have improved for Paxton, who was polling at 34 percent to Talarico's 42 percent in an April survey by the pollster.
Belt said he believes Texas may be a tougher lift for Democrats.
“Democrats statewide tend to do worse on election day than the early polls indicate. Also, Texas is a very expensive state in which to campaign, so a lot of resources could be expended for only one seat (e.g. Beto O'Rourke). Democrats would be wise to put these resources elsewhere,” he said.
The race is viewed as Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Overall, prediction markets favored Republicans to hold control of the Senate as of Wednesday morning. Kalshi placed their chances of holding onto the Senate at 58 percent, while Polymarket gave them a 57 percent chance of retaining their majority.
Democrats’ chances in the Senate have fluctuated over the past few months. At the start of the year, Republicans had a 67 percent chance of retaining Senate control, but that narrowed, with Kalshi showing a tied race in March, April and May. Democrats even were briefly favored in mid-April.
However, over the past few weeks, Republicans’ chances have ticked up again.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
What Happens Next
Polls will continue to be watched over the coming months to gauge the mood of the American electorate ahead of the midterms. Upcoming primaries in states like Michigan may also shape the race for control of the Senate.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenni Fink and Sam Wilson.
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