Democrats' chances of losing to Steve Hilton in California governor race

Steve Hilton speaks during a California gubernatorial debate on February 3, 2026, in San Francisco.

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Andrew Stanton

By Andrew Stanton

Reporter

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President Donald Trump’s pick in the California gubernatorial race, Steve Hilton, leads his rivals in some of the most recent polls in the traditionally Democratic state.

Newsweek reached out to campaigns for leading candidates for comment via email.

Why It Matters

California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat and possible 2028 presidential candidate, is unable to run for a third term due to term limits in the Golden State, leaving open a race that has drawn significant attention. Trump made his pick in the race, backing Republican Hilton, a former British government aide and former Fox News host.

Steve Hilton’s Polling in California: What to Know

The latest polls of the race give Hilton a slight lead over other candidates.

Hilton held support from 17 percent of Californians in the latest poll from the University of California, Berkeley. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, followed with 16 percent support.

Representative Eric Swalwell and former Representative Katie Porter were the two Democrats with the most support, at 13 percent each. Businessman Tom Steyer, a Democrat, followed at 10 percent. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra polled at 5 percent. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan received 4 percent.

Steve Hilton speaks during a California gubernatorial debate on February 3 in San Francisco.

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Eighteen percent said they would vote for other candidates or indicated they were still undecided. The poll surveyed 5,019 registered voters from March 9-15, 2026.

An Echelon Insights poll similarly showed Hilton leading with 20 percent, followed by Swalwell at 15 percent and Bianco at 14 percent.

Steyer received 13 percent support in that poll, while 10 percent said they would vote for Porter. Four percent said they would vote for Mahan, and Becerra and Villaraigosa each received 3 percent of the vote. Former California Controller Betty Yee, a Democrat, received 2 percent support, and Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond received 1 percent support.

The poll, sponsored by Hilton’s campaign, surveyed 600 likely voters from March 12-17, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Democrats got slightly better news from an Emerson College poll, which showed Swalwell led at 17 percent, followed by Hilton at 13 percent. Bianco and Steyer each received 11 percent in that poll. No other candidates received double-digit support. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from March 7-9, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A GOP victory in California would be a stunning shift from recent elections, when Democrats have easily carried the state. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won California by about 20 points against Trump in 2024.

Prediction markets still favor Democrats; Kalshi gives Democrats an 89 percent chance of victory, while Polymarket gives Hilton only a 12 percent chance.

Trump Endorses Steve Hilton in California

Trump announced his support for Hilton in a Truth Social post early Monday morning, describing him as a “truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell.”

“Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before,” Trump wrote.

Democrats Sound Alarm About California Governor Race

Rusty Hicks, the chair of the California Democratic Party, has raised red flags about the gubernatorial race as polls suggest a lockout is possible. In March, he penned an open letter urging candidates whose polling has stalled to exit the race to prevent that possibility.

“Despite the ongoing chatter, the likelihood of two Republicans effectively 'locking out' California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low. However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible and I know we are collectively committed to taking the steps required to avoid that possibility,” he wrote.

He urged candidates to “honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign” ahead of the March 6 filing deadline.

However, no notable candidates exited the race following his plea.

What People Are Saying

Democratic candidate Matt Mahan wrote in a statement to Newsweek: *“*By endorsing Steve Hilton, Trump is telling Californians exactly what a Hilton governorship would look like: higher costs, a wrecked economy, and a Sacramento that does Trump's bidding, opens the door to ICE, and attacks our communities instead of defending them. I'm running to do the opposite, to lower costs, invest in California's future, and stand up to Washington when it comes after us. The choice could not be more clear.”

Former California Controller Betty Yee wrote to Newsweek: “Endorsed by one of the most divisive, unpopular and ineffective presidents in modern history? That’s no badge of honor; it’s more like a mark of shame. California voters are fed up with Trump’s failed economic policies, reckless war and dangerous ICE raids, so we certainly don’t want a new governor who follows Trump’s old playbook. California voters are smarter than that. They deserve a governor who delivers results, protects rights and puts people first. That’s the leadership I will provide.”

Steve Hilton wrote in a press release: “I am honored to receive the endorsement of President Donald J. Trump. California should be the best place in the world to follow your dreams, raise a family, start and grow a business. We have everything we need to lead our country again. But after 16 years of one-party rule, we have the highest poverty rate, highest unemployment rate, and highest cost of living in America.”

Former Representative Katie Porter, a Democrat, wrote to X: “If there was any doubt what this race is about, now it's certain: It's California values against MAGA. I'm running because voters are tired of the same old political games when the stakes are so much higher. They deserve a governor they can trust to fight for regular people, not just push policy agendas that only benefit corporate interests and the richest of the rich. I'm the only leading Democrat in this race who's never taken corporate PAC money or profited off corporate greed, and I've taken on Trump and his cronies and won.”

Democratic pollster Adam Carlson wrote on X: “The (overblown) fear that Dems would get locked out of the CA-Gov general election was grounded in the assumption that the two GOP candidates — Steve Hilton & Chad Bianco — would continue to draw roughly equal support Trump endorsing Hilton all but assures a Dem will get through.”

Joel Pollak, opinion editor for the California Post, wrote on X: “Endorsements only matter in primaries, but if this puts Hilton far enough ahead that a Democrat reaches second place, it will backfire. I think the cake is already baked in the California gubernatorial race, and that there is still a chance for a dual Republican general election.”

What Happens Next

The primary is set for June 2, 2026, while the general election will be held on November 3, 2026. Forecasters give Democrats an advantage—both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as being Safe Democrat.

Update 4/6/26, 2:05 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.