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By Mandy Taheri
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Democrats' chances of retaking the House of Representatives improved in Fox News' latest midterm forecast, which gives the party a narrow advantage in the battle for control of the chamber less than two months before Election Day.
The updated Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats favored in 212 districts, up one from July, compared with 206 for Republicans, leaving 17 toss-up races that could ultimately decide control of the House.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterms. Democrats rode a blue wave to pick up 41 seats in 2018, during the midterms of President Donald Trump's first White House term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
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Ultimately, a small number of competitive districts will likely decide control of the House. A party needs to hold 218 seats to have control of the chamber.
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Candidates have ramped up their campaigns and fundraising operations with less than two months before voters head to the polls, while Trump has expanded his efforts to boost Republicans in key battleground races. The president wrote in a Monday Truth Social post that Democrats are “going to give it one last shot at ruining America, but we're not going to let that happen. We're going to win the Midterms, BIG, and SAVE AMERICA!”
The fight for the Senate remains razor-thin, with Democrats facing a 53-47 minority and facing a difficult map. A handful of toss-up races are also expected to help determine control of the upper chamber.
The competitive contests in both chambers are emerging as key tests of the political climate during Trump's second term, as his approval rating has slipped amid voter concerns over the economy, tariff policies, and the ongoing Iran war.
"House Republicans thought they could ruin the economy, raise the cost of everything, and then rig the maps to save their seats. They’re going to get crushed in November and they have only themselves to blame," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Liam Buckley told Newsweek in a Tuesday email.
Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee for comment via email on Tuesday.
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What To Know
Fox News updated its Power Rankings—a predictor index similar to those of Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball—on Tuesday, improving Democrats' position in the race for the House.
It is a slight shift from its July forecast, when it projected Democrats ahead in 211 districts and Republicans in 208, with 16 races rated as tossups.
"Not a single Democratic-held seat sits in the toss-up column," Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns, told Newsweek.
He continued, "Every one of these fights is on Republican turf—a real indicator of headwinds impacting the party in power. Democrats need six of them for a Congressional majority. That's a winnable defense for the GOP, but only if the party stops giving away seats like Ohio 7."
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Among the ratings changes, Fox News shifted Ohio's 7th District from the likely Republican column into the toss-up category. The race features Republican Congressman Max Miller, who recently came under fire following a series of domestic abuse allegations against his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, and their 2-year-old daughter.
He has denied the allegations and described winning the race in November as not just about the Republican Party, but about his family.
"This election, to me, is about my family and about our daughter and keeping our values here and holding the media and other individuals accountable who have been incredibly reckless," he said in August.
In July and early August, the congressman faced several calls to resign and abandon his reelection bid, including from Miller's former father-in-law, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, who said his daughter lives in “constant fear” of her ex-husband. Miller has remained in the race against Democrat Brian Poindexter.
Klink noted that "Trump carried the Miller district by 11 points in 2024," adding: "A Republican who can't hold an R+11 seat has a candidate problem, not a party problem. The ratings agencies moved the race because of headlines, not because Ohio voters turned blue."
The Cook Political Report also rates the race as a toss-up after moving it from the likely Republican column in August, citing controversy surrounding Miller as a factor in the rating change. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rates the race as a toss-up.
The district previously backed Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns, including by 11 points in 2024. While it has changed shape and demographics over the years, the 7th District has not elected a Democrat to the House since 1936.
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Two other Ohio districts, the 10th and 15th, were also downgraded in the updated Fox News rankings, shifting from solid Republican to likely Republican and signaling a more competitive environment for the GOP.
Redistricting changes also briefly altered the outlook in Missouri's 5th Congressional District, held by Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver. A Republican-backed map was expected to make the district far more competitive for the GOP, but the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously restored the existing boundaries last week pending a statewide referendum, shifting that seat back into the Democratic column in the rankings.
The court said in the ruling, “HB 1 did not go into effect and will not go into effect unless and until approved by the voters. The congressional redistricting the General Assembly established in 2022 remains in full force and effect for the November 2026 general election.”
"Democrats are highly likely to recapture the House, and likely a coin toss to recapture the Senate," Alex Patton, owner of Ozean Media, told Newsweek. He added, "So Democrats firmly hold the upper hand. The real question centers on how much midcycle redistricting insulated Republicans."
Patton continued, "Frankly, with the current economic fundamentals, inflation, gas prices, and the President's historic disapproval numbers, Democrats should ask why they are not blowing this out hands down no questions asked."
However, John Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy who previously served in the House Republican leadership, argues that "It is still anybody’s race. Lots of cards left to play."
"We (Republicans) have better candidates and more money. They [Democrats] have a better environment. It will be close either way," he said.
Trump's approval rating has been a huge talking point heading into the midterms and has historically been a closely watched indicator of the president's party's electoral prospects.
Nationally, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump's job performance, and 59 percent disapprove as of September 7, leaving him underwater with a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. As of Tuesday, the survey had garnered more than 128,600 responses since January 20, 2025, when Trump was inaugurated for a second term.
According to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin polling average, Trump's net approval rating stood at -20 on Tuesday, with 38.2 percent of Americans approving of his job performance and 58.4 percent disapproving.
Voter views on the economy, a central focus of Trump's 2024 campaign, may also present challenges for Republicans heading into the midterms. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,167 adults conducted August 28 to August 31 found Trump's approval rating at 33 percent, and that slightly more respondents trusted Democrats to handle the economy, at 37 percent, than Republicans, at 36 percent. The poll's margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.
Despite some troubling signs for Republicans, GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News Digital earlier this month that Republicans will not only maintain the chamber, but "We're going to grow the majority."
Cook also views the race as tight, favoring Democrats in 205 seats with at least a "lean Democrat" rating and Republicans favored in 209 seats with at least a "lean Republican" rating. The predictor rates 21 races as tossups, 16 of which are currently Republican.
What Recent Polls Show About Control of the House
Several aggregators put Democrats in the lead for the House, such as Real Clear Polling, which gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of securing the chamber compared to Republicans' 42.3 percent. The Silver Bulletin puts Democrats with a net 6.5 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,167 adults conducted August 28 to August 31 found that more Democrats are enthusiastic about voting in the elections, which could boost turnout for the party, while among independents, 36 percent said they would vote Democratic and 22 percent Republican in the midterms.
A YouGov/Economist survey released last week shows that in a generic congressional vote, 36 percent of U.S. adults would pick the Democratic candidate compared to 31 percent who would pick the Republican candidate. One percent said other, 8 percent said not sure, and 23 percent said they would not vote. The poll surveyed 1,592 U.S. adults from August 28 to August 31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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A Quantus Insights poll shows that among 1,200 likely voters, 49.7 percent would pick Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, compared with 42.8 percent for Republicans, and 7.5 percent were undecided. In a generic Senate ballot, 49.3 percent picked Democrats, and 43.4 percent picked the Republican Party, while 7.3 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted from August 26 to August 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
An Echelon Insights poll last month showed that 45 percent would definitely, probably or lean toward the Republican candidate in a generic congressional ballot, compared with 50 percent who said the Democratic candidate. Five percent say they were unsure. The poll surveyed 1,002 voters in the likely electorate from August 13-17 and had a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
Democrats' prospects for winning the House have also improved in recent weeks, according to prediction markets. As of Tuesday, Kalshi gave Democrats an 85 percent chance of controlling the chamber, compared with 15 percent for Republicans, while Polymarket gave Democrats an 87 percent chance and Republicans 14 percent.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenni Fink, Geoffrey Rowland, Dave Siminoff, Sam Wilson.
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