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By Lars Hanson
Associate News Editor
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Democrats are projected to win control of both chambers of Congress. Alaska’s Senate race, now neck and neck, will help determine how large their Senate majority is.
As of 9:24 p.m. Alaska time, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 298 votes. She had 48.3 percent (79,017 votes) to his 48.1 percent (78,719), according to unofficial results from the Alaska Division of Elections. Republican Gerald L. Heikes had 2 percent and independent Daniel J. Sullivan had 1.6 percent, with 211 of 403 precincts reporting.
CNN, CBS News, ABC News and Decision Desk HQ have projected that Democrats will control the Senate. Before Tuesday, Alaska looked like it could decide the majority. Now it will help decide the margin.
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Why Does the Alaska Senate Race Still Matter?
The size of a Senate majority shapes what that majority can do, and Alaska is one of the seats still in play.
If Peltola wins, she is expected to be the 55th or 56th Democratic senator. A Sullivan win would keep the margin narrower and give Republicans a firmer base for 2028.
Before the election, Forrest Nabors of the University of Alaska Anchorage foresaw a split outcome. "It would not surprise me if the Democrats win the senate majority but Sullivan retains his seat," he told Newsweek.
What Would a Mary Peltola Win Mean for Democrats?
It would be the party’s first Alaska Senate seat since Democrat Mark Begich lost to Sullivan in 2014. Peltola, a former U.S. representative, would also give Democrats a foothold in a state Trump has carried in each of his three campaigns.
A Peltola win could also revive a legal fight. The Justice Department sued, arguing that if Peltola beats the senator by fewer votes than the second Dan Sullivan received, his votes may have changed the outcome. A judge dismissed the suit, and the department plans to appeal. Right now, her margin is 298 votes, and the second Sullivan has 2,693.
What Would a Dan Sullivan Win Mean for Republicans?
It would keep a seat Republicans have held since 2015 and limit the size of the Democratic majority. It would also likely make the federal lawsuit moot, since the Justice Department’s request centered on a Sullivan loss.
When Will Alaska Senate Race Be Called?
Probably not for days, and possibly weeks.
Election night results typically make up about 70 percent of the overall vote, consultant Burke Croft told Alaska Public Media. About 131 of the state’s 400-plus precincts count ballots by hand. Absentee ballots mailed from overseas can arrive up to 15 days after Election Day.
"In elections past, we’ve seen shifts as large as four or so points," Croft said. The 2008 and 2010 Senate races each took about two weeks to call.
Registered Democrats voted early at a higher rate than Republicans, and some advance votes are counted after election day, the Alaska Beacon reported. As a result, the first results are expected to lean more Republican than the final count.
The state plans to update its count on November 10, November 13 and November 18.
If no candidate finishes above 50 percent, the state tabulates ranked choices on November 18. The last-place candidate is eliminated, and each of those ballots moves to the voter’s next choice. That repeats until one candidate has a majority. The roughly 6,000 votes now going to Heikes and the second Sullivan could decide the race. State officials aim to certify the results by November 25.
Two Dan Sullivans on the Ballot: The Latest
The second Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan, is a retired schoolteacher who has lived in Petersburg since 1980. He’s running as an independent and is listed on the ballot alongside the senator, Dan S. Sullivan, who is marked as the incumbent.
In June, the state elections director disqualified Daniel J. Sullivan, finding he had filed "with a purpose to confuse or mislead." Two state courts reversed that decision and restored his name to the ballot.
The New York Times reported that Democratic operatives linked to Peltola’s campaign recruited him. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee denied any involvement. Peltola’s campaign said: "The Alaskans for Mary campaign has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign." Daniel J. Sullivan has rejected the idea that he is a decoy.
In dismissing the Justice Department’s suit, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason wrote that setting aside ballots that ranked him would "clearly violate Alaskans’ right to a secret ballot."
In a ranked-choice count, a ballot that ranked him first and the senator second would move to the senator. A ballot that ranked him alone would not.
Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola: What the Polls Showed
A New York Times/Siena poll, conducted October 23-30, had Peltola at 48 percent and Sullivan at 46 percent, within the margin of error. Russell Luke of the University of Alaska Fairbanks told Newsweek the race was rated a toss-up "by all the sources I’ve seen."
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Kate Nalepinski
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