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By Andrew Stanton
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A new poll of Michigan voters delivered warning signs to Democrats about key races in the 2026 midterm elections.
The Glengariff Group poll, published in The Detroit News, showed Republican candidates leading both of the major statewide races, while many Michigan voters are still unsure of who they will support.
Newsweek also reached out to the Michigan GOP for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
Michigan has emerged as a battleground state over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024 but former President Joe Biden in 2020. The state is again expected to be competitive in November, as Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring while Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer cannot run again because of term limits. Both races are viewed as competitive, even as Democrats are hoping for a 2018-style blue wave that will carry them to victory in key races.
What To Know
In the Senate race, former GOP Representative Mike Rogers is leading all three potential Democratic rivals. In a matchup against Representative Haley Stevens, he led by less than half a percentage point (44.1 percent to 43.7 percent). He held a prospective lead of about 3 points against state Senator Mallory McMorrow (45.7 percent to 42.4 percent).
Rogers held a larger lead against Abdul El-Sayed, former health director of Wayne County, of more than 6 points (48 percent to 41.6 percent).
In a statement to Newsweek, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel said Michigan voters will “reject the toxic GOP agenda” in November.
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David Dulio, a political science professor and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, told Newsweek that Rogers is benefiting from his 2024 Senate bid. Other candidates don’t have the same level of name recognition among Michigan voters, he said.
"None of the Democrats are well-known, I don’t think, outside of their home areas," he said.
Pollster Richard Czuba told The Detroit News that voters remember Rogers from his 2024 Senate bid, which he narrowly lost to now-Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat. Democrats, meanwhile, are less well known. McMorrow, for instance, was known by only 24 percent of respondents, he said.
However, when only “definite” voters were polled, Democrats were favored. Stevens led Rogers by 5 points (47 percent to 42 percent), McMorrow led by more than 3 points (46.2 percent to 42.7 percent), and El-Sayed also led by just over 3 points (46.6 percent to 43.3 percent).
The governor's race poll may also be worrying for Democrats, though the dynamics are different because former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat, is running as an independent.
That poll showed Republican Representative John James leading the three-way race by less than 2 percentage points over Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (33.8 percent to 32.2 percent). Duggan received 26.1 percent of the vote.
Benson, however, would have an advantage in a two-way race against James, leading that hypothetical matchup by 2 points (47 percent to 45 percent), according to the poll.
It also polled Benson against other potential Republican candidates, including former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, former Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt. She led each of those races.
Cox received 28 percent, Duggan 31 percent and Benson 34 percent in that matchup. Nesbitt received 24 percent, Benson 35 percent and Duggan 32 percent in that potential race. Meanwhile, Leonard received 24 percent, Duggan 33 percent and Benson 34 percent in the third possible matchup.
The poll surveyed 600 likely general election voters from January 2-6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Dulio told Newsweek that Benson is the “presumptive nominee” on the Democratic side, but that the Republican primary field could have a “surprise.”
“But some of the fears of Democrats are borne out in this survey,” he said, “I would read this as Duggan pulling slightly more from the Democrats than the Republicans, which is what Democrats are scared of.”
Democrats in both races can improve their standing by focusing on the economic issues, he said.
“What their plans are, what their vision is to improve affordability,” he said. “The president was here in Michigan yesterday, and the economy was a focus of his speech. Republicans are kind of in a corner with the economy at the moment.”
What People Are Saying
Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel, in a statement to Newsweek: "While Michigan Democrats are laser focused on bringing costs down and delivering for Michiganders, Republicans are running on a disastrous agenda that spikes health care and grocery costs to give tax handouts to billionaires. Michigan voters will reject the toxic GOP agenda that's making it harder for working families to make ends meet at the ballot box this November.”
Nikki Goldschein, Democratic Jocelyn Benson’s campaign manager, in a statement to Newsweek: “This race is a tossup, and we’ve always known that. What this poll shows is that when the most motivated voters–Democrats–turn out, Jocelyn Benson wins and wins decisively. Every time Jocelyn has run for office, she’s expanded the map, most recently leading the statewide ticket by 14 points and carrying counties no other Democrat did. Michiganders know her record of delivering: she fixed a broken Secretary of State system and moved Michigan’s elections from 34th in the nation to 2nd. While others talk about standing up for Michiganders, Jocelyn Benson has a proven history of actually doing it, and that’s why she’ll win in November.”
Ed Duggan, independent campaign manager for Mike Duggan, in a statement: “When an Independent is statistically tied with both parties, it tells you everything you need to know about how fed up voters are with politics as usual. People want solutions, not slogans, and they’re ready for something different. This poll shows there’s significant momentum for independent leadership that puts results ahead of party labels.”
Arik Wolk, spokesperson for Democrat Haley Stevens’ campaign, in a statement to Newsweek: “This race is about winning for Michigan in November, and yet another poll shows that Haley Stevens is the only Democrat who can defeat Mike Rogers this November with her unique magic with independent voters–a group that will be the deciding factor this election.”
**National Republican Senatorial Committee Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell, in a statement to Newsweek: "**Chuck Schumer is refusing to acknowledge his handpicked candidate Haley Stevens' failed campaign because he knows the numbers do not lie. It does not matter which radical leftist makes it out of the Democrats' messy primary, Mike Rogers is ready to turn Michigan red and grow President Trump's Senate Majority."
Hannah Lindow, spokesperson for Democratic candidate McMorrow's campaign, in a statement to Newsweek: "NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell, in a statement to Newsweek: ""Chuck Schumer is refusing to acknowledge his handpicked candidate Haley Stevens' failed campaign because he knows the numbers do not lie. It does not matter which radical leftist makes it out of the Democrats' messy primary, Mike Rogers is ready to turn Michigan red and grow President Trump's Senate Majority."
Pollster Richard Czuba told The Detroit News: “The bottom line is this Senate race is going to be close. Michigan is going to be one of these six seats that’s going to be critical in the U.S. Senate conversation.”
Craig Mauger of The Detroit News, on X: “Our first poll of 2026 points to a very close race to be Michigan’s next governor. Independent Mike Duggan also appears to have gained ground on the major party candidates.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters view Michigan’s senatorial and gubernatorial races as being among the most competitive of the midterms. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the races as both being toss-ups.
Update 1/14/26 1:40 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 1/14/2026 5:46 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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