10
Loading video...
By Andrew Stanton
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democrats’ strategy of supporting independents in traditionally conservative states, rather than running their own candidate, faces a reckoning in this year’s midterms, as difficult headwinds for Republicans will test the appetite for these independents in states President Donald Trump carried by large margins.
Over the years, Democrats have declined to run a candidate in certain Senate races when they believed an independent could be able to make the race competitive in states that are generally hostile to Democrats. For instance, Democrats rallied behind independent candidates in Senate races in Nebraska in 2024, Utah in 2022, Alaska in 2020 and Kansas in 2014.
These independents performed relatively well, putting up stronger performances than Democrats generally do in those states. However, they still fell short of a victory, with Republicans winning each of those races.
Read More on Politics
But this year could be different, Democrats hope. The national environment appears to be less favorable for Republicans as Trump’s national approval rating has slipped due to voter frustration with the cost-of-living and the economy. The president’s polling falling to record lows has also fueled Democrats’ optimism that they may be able to compete in more Republican-leaning states.
But there will be no Democrats on the ballot for the Senate races in Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota. Instead, Democrats are backing independent candidates Todd Achilles, Dan Osborn and Brian Bengs in those three states.
The strategy was “born of Democratic frustration in deep red states,” Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek.
He said if the strategy was ever going to work for Democrats, it would be in this year's midterms, when “Republicans must endure the reality of a deeply unpopular president who promised two years ago to lower prices and avoid international entanglements—and did neither.”
“If the independent strategy doesn't work this year, it might not be worth trying again,” Farnsworth added. “But Democrats running statewide in some places don't have a lot of good alternatives.”
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for comment via email.
Can Independents Pull Off Victory in These Red States?
The Senate races in Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota will test the viability of this strategy used by Democrats. Of the three races, only Nebraska is seen as competitive by the Cook Political Report, which classifies it as "Lean Republican," while the other two contests are viewed as "Solid Republican."
Democrats also hoped to deploy the strategy in Montana, a state that has elected some Democrats in recent history despite its Republican lean. Many Democrats called on the party to support independent Seth Bodnar, rather than run their own candidate, but Democrat Alani Bankhead declined to drop out of the race, leaving it as a three-way contest where Republicans remain favored.
The thought process behind the strategy is that in these solidly conservative states, a Democrat is generally unlikely to win, but an independent may be able to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and more moderate Republicans that may be more competitive in the state, though it has not necessarily worked in recent history.
But these independent candidates emphasize that they’re not Democrats. None have said they would caucus with Democrats and have cast themselves as true independents who align with both parties on certain issues. Still, if these independents won, they would deny Republicans seats in states they would ordinarily easily win.
...
Nebraska Appears Competitive Despite GOP Edge
Nebraska is seen as the best opportunity for an independent to unseat an incumbent Republican senator. Dan Osborn, who narrowly lost to GOP Senator Deb Fischer in the 2024 election, is again running in the state, this time challenging Republican Senator Pete Ricketts.
Cook announced the shift to "Lean Republican" on Friday, just days before the election, with analyst Jessica Taylor pointing to a recent internal Republican poll showing a close race and noting that the national environment is tougher for Republicans compared to two years ago. Still, she noted that conservative outside spending should be enough to keep the race in Republican hands.
An Echelon Insights poll, which surveyed 407 likely voters from October 16 to 23, showed Ricketts with a single-point lead over Osborn, 47 percent to 46 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
An earlier YouGov survey showed Osborn up one point, 48 percent to 47 percent, among 1,809 likely voters from September 24 to October 3. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Osborn has cast himself as a true independent who aligns with neither party on all issues. He told CNN in August that if elected, he does not plan to caucus with either party.
“I plan on remaining an independent,” he said.
Republicans, however, have pushed back on the idea that he is independent.
“Democrat Dan Osborn is a grifter who wants to raise taxes on Nebraska families and work with the radical left to open our borders. Nebraskans will reject Osborn again,” National Republican Senatorial Committee regional press secretary Nick Puglia said in a statement in July. Leaked audio tape of Osborn describing Trump’s wall along the U.S.-Mexico border as a “symbol of racism” has also given Republicans ammunition to argue Osborn is more liberal than the state.
Unseating a Republican is a steep challenge in Nebraska, a state with a massive Republican voter registration advantage.
As of October 1, there were 619,645 registered Republicans and 329,163 registered Democrats across Nebraska. There were only 283,555 people who are nonpartisan, according to registration numbers from the Nebraska Secretary of State office.
The state backed Trump in all three of his presidential runs, though his margins were narrower than Republican victories earlier in the century.
Trump won Nebraska by just over 20 points in 2024 after winning it by 19 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016. The state also voted for Republicans by 22 points in 2012, 15 points in 2008, 33 points in 2004 and 29 points in 2000. Democrats haven’t carried the state presidentially since 1964.
Idaho and South Dakota Are Reach States
Democrats have also declined to run candidates in Idaho and South Dakota in hopes that independents could be competitive, but these two races have not quite garnered as much attention. Both are considered to be "Solid Republican" by the Cook Political Report.
In Idaho, Republican Senator Jim Risch is facing a challenge from independent Achilles, but high quality, independent polling has been limited. Trump carried Idaho by more than 36 points in 2024, so a close race would represent a stunning shift.
Meanwhile, GOP Senator Mike Rounds has faced a challenge from independent Bengs in South Dakota. A recent Emerson College poll favored Rounds but still pointed to a closer race than would be expected in a state Trump won by 29 points. Rounds led the poll by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent, among 803 likely voters from October 19 to 21. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Related Story
Forecaster Shifts 9 Senate Races as Nate Silver Touts Democratic Polling
Independents Fell Short in the Past—But Ran in Tougher Cycles
Osborn’s candidacy in 2024 highlighted why Democrats sometimes opt to not run in states with viable independents. Osborn lost to Fischer by fewer than 7 points while Trump won the state by more than 20. While this did not translate to a GOP loss, it was still a notable underperformance.
It’s in line with other election results from the past few years—independents perform better than Democrats but have not actually been able to flip these Senate seats.
In 2022, another more conservative year, independent Evan McMullin ran against Republican Senator Mike Lee in Utah, losing by about 10 points in a state that ordinarily votes for Republicans by wider margins.
In 2020, a bit of a better year for Democrats, independent Al Gross ran against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska, losing by nearly 13 points. That was not as strong of a performance, as Trump won Alaska by only about 10 points on the same ballot.
And in 2014, former GOP senator Pat Roberts won by fewer than 11 points against independent Greg Orman in Kansas, a conservative state in an otherwise strong year for Republicans.
Can Independents Help Democrats Retake the Senate?
Control of the Senate is unlikely to come down to those three races.
Instead, toss-ups between a Republican and Democratic candidate in states like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are likely to decide the balance of power in the Senate.
But if independents were to win in any of these races, it would mean Republicans lose a seat in a state that would not ordinarily be competitive. These independents would emerge as critical swing voters in the Senate who could wield significant power on important legislative priorities.
Democrats must flip four seats to win a majority. Maine and North Carolina represented the only GOP-held seats up for grabs in states that Trump either won by single digits or outright lost in the 2024 election, so they need to flip at least two seats in double-digit Trump states to win control of the chamber.
Prediction markets give Democrats an edge to take back the Senate. As of Friday, they had a 70 percent chance on Kalshi and a 72 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Election forecaster Nate Silver on Thursday pointed to strong polling for Democrats in the Senate, writing in a Thursday X post, “Very strong polls for Democrats in individual Senate races over the past couple of days. Polls can be wrong, that's what models/probabilities/markets are for, but I think we're past the point where you can honestly say ‘polls show the Senate is too close to call.’”
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Jason Lemon.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines