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Republicans' decadeslong hold on Texas statewide offices will be tested this November, with the Senate race between GOP nominee Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico in a deadlock and a close governors race between Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Governor Greg Abbott, according to a new poll.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation's longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped its electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate bid against Ted Cruz.
Democrats have been eyeing Texas as a potential swing state for years without much success, but the party believes President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating along with Democratic nationwide wins could fuel momentum. The Lone Star State has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980.
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“The only poll that matters is November 3rd,” Nick Maddux, a campaign spokesperson for Paxton, told Newsweek in a Thursday email.
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He continued, “When Texans get a look at James Talarico's actual record including endorsing reparations, voting against protecting kids from irreversible transition procedures, attacking oil and gas jobs, and backing the largest tax increase in Texas history, there is no amount of panicked flip-flopping that is going to save him. Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream."
Some analysts see a more competitive political landscape, though are weary if Democrats will prevail, such as Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, who told Newsweek, “Talarico could win this race, but reality intrudes; no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas in more than thirty years and though 2026 is shaping up to be a good Democrat year, be careful.”
Newsweek has reached out to Abbott and Talarico’s campaigns for comment via email on Thursday.
Texas Governor’s Race
The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide in 2026, a cycle that includes several other high-profile open-seat races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.
Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch ally of Trump who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022. A fourth term would put Abbott on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015.
Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.
"Every poll tells the same story: Texans are tired of working more and getting less," Hinojosa told Newsweek in an email statement. "Working families, of every race, ethnicity and in every corner of this state are watching their bills go up, their schools get shut down, and data centers take over their communities while Greg Abbott hands billions to his donors. We hear it everywhere we go: Texans are ready for a governor who will put them first."
The incumbent is viewed by forecasters and prediction markets as a strong favorite for reelection, with the Cook Political Report ranking the race as “solid Republican,” though polls suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over O’Rourke in 2022.
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Texas Senate Race
Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority, so Democrats are hoping to flip at least four seats to gain control of the chamber, with strategists eyeing the Texas seat as a pickup opportunity. The state has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988.
Surveys show both Paxton and Talarico holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup comes after Paxton defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff in late May.
Multiple recent surveys have indicated a highly competitive contest between Paxton—who has been endorsed by Trump—and Talarico, the Democrat who has served as state representative since 2018 and was previously a middle school teacher.
Paxton is Texas' attorney general with a history of legal issues. In 2015, he was indicted on state securities fraud charges related to activities before taking office. He pleaded not guilty. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023, which approved 20 articles against him. The Senate acquitted him. The Republican has repeatedly dismissed the impeachment and other allegations as politically motivated.
What the New Poll Shows
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 likely Texas voters puts the Senate race in a dead heat, with 47 percent backing Paxton and 46 supporting Talarico. About 5 percent are undecided and 2 percent back a different candidate. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, putting Paxton’s lead within that.
“This polling shows Ken Paxton has consolidated Republican support, moving the race closer to even after several months of polls showing him behind. This race is close because there are significant numbers of independent voters breaking for Talarico," Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek in a Thursday email.
After Cornyn's loss, some analysts questioned whether supporters of the longtime senator would unite behind Paxton.
The Senate race "is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
The poll found Republicans to have a bigger lead in the gubernatorial race, with 49 percent supporting Abbot and 45 percent backing Hinojosa. About four percent were undecided.
“Majorities of Texas Hispanic voters are dissatisfied with their federal and state executives: 58% of Hispanic voters disapprove of President Trump and 57% of Governor Abbott,” Kimball noted. “This demographic also breaks for the Democrat on the ballot, by 19 for Talarico and 17 for Hinojosa.”
Regarding the governor's race, Jillson highlighted Abbott’s significant fundraising, saying “Abbott’s spending down the stretch will likely expand his lead at least into the mid-single digits and may well elevate the entire Republican slate just enough to preserve the party’s win streak through one more election cycle.”
Campaign finance filings with the Texas Ethics Commission show that Texans for Greg Abbott, the governor's principal campaign committee, has spent more than $54.5 million during the 2026 election cycle. It also says he has over $67.2 million in cash on hand.
Hinojosa’s total expenditures are a little less than $4 million. She has about $3 million in cash on hand, per the filings reviewed by Newsweek.
Rottinghaus, who noted to not read too much into individual polls, also said, “What is clear from this poll and polling trends is that the race is close. Democrats haven’t seen this potential in almost a decade. The Democrats have strong tail winds from an unpopular President and the rising cost of living. This cycle highlights this unique moment as the Democrats’ best chance to break an almost 30 year statewide losing streak.”
The poll found that 48 percent believe Texas is headed in the wrong direction, while 43 percent believe it's on the right track. About 8.6 percent have no opinion.
What Other Polls Show About the Governor’s Race
Most polls show Abbott leading the race, albeit by a smaller lead than in 2022.
A late July Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely Texan voters found Abbott leading with 49 percent to Hinojosa’s 43 percent. About 5 percent of voters were undecided, and 3 percent were backing Libertarian Pat Dixon.
The poll highlights the demographic and generational divides shaping the Texas governor's race. Abbott leads Hinojosa among white likely voters by 24 points, 58 percent to 34 percent, while Hinojosa holds a 14-point advantage among Latino voters, 55 percent to 41 percent, and a 59-point lead among Black voters, 74 percent to 15 percent.
The Democrat also leads among women by 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent, while Abbott holds a 24-point advantage among men, 58 percent to 34 percent.
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The poll was conducted between July 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,048 likely Texas voters finds Abbott leading Hinojosa 45 percent to 42 percent, with about 10 percent of voters undecided.
Hinojosa leads Abbott among independents by 5 percentage points and among moderates by 18 points. She also holds sizable advantages among Black and Latino voters, leading by 49 points and 38 points, respectively. Abbott, meanwhile, leads among college-educated voters by 9 points and among white voters by 29 points.
The poll was conducted from July 15 to July 17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely voters surveyed from June 19 to June 27 found Abbott with the backing of 51 percent of voters and Hinojosa with 44 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Abbott had a 7-point lead over Hinojosa in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll conducted from June 5 to June 12. The poll of 1,200 registered voters found Abbott up 47 percent to her 40 percent, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
What Other Polls Show About the Senate Race
Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority, so Democrats are hoping to flip at least four seats to gain control of the chamber, with strategists eyeing the Texas seat as a pickup opportunity. The state has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988.
A recent Texas Pulse survey conducted by ReconMR for the Texas A&M Bush School. Talarico leads Paxton 47 percent to 43 percent among likely Texas voters. The poll surveyed 619 likely Texas voters from July 27 to July 30 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The poll found Talarico leading among women, 53 percent to 40 percent, and among voters under 65, while Paxton maintains a strong advantage among Republicans and voters 65 and older. Talarico's strength is particularly pronounced among younger voters, where he leads 66 percent to 23 percent among those ages 18 to 34.
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A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 45 percent to 40 percent. The poll surveyed 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to July 17 and had a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
A Fox News poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 51 to 48 percent, within the survey's margin of error. Among those who are both extremely motivated and extremely interested to vote, Talarico leads 53 percent to 47 percent in both groups.
The poll surveyed 1,006 Texas registered voters from July 23 to July 27 and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
Prediction markets have recently shown better odds for Talarico, with Kalshi putting Talarico's odds at 53 percent compared to Paxton's 47 percent and Polymarket putting the Democrat at 51 percent to Paxton's 49 percent, as of Thursday afternoon. The Democrat surged ahead of Paxton on prediction markets this week for the first time.
Texans will head to the polls in the fall to determine both the governor's race and closely watched U.S. Senate contest, offering another test on whether Democrats can make gains in a state that has long favored Republicans.
What's Next
The Texas statewide campaigns will enter the final stretch before Election Day, with both parties expected to ramp up advertising, candidate appearances and voter outreach as the Senate and governor's races remain highly competitive.
Key dates:
- October 5, 2026: Deadline to register to vote in the Texas general election.
- October 19, 2026: Early voting begins statewide.
- October 23, 2026: Deadline for most applications for a ballot by mail to be received.
- October 30, 2026: Last day of early voting in Texas.
- November 3, 2026: General Election Day. Texans will vote for governor, U.S. senator and other statewide offices. Polls are scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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