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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrats are within striking distance of flipping Iowa from Republicans in this year's midterm elections, according to a new Emerson College poll released on Thursday.
Iowa will be a major test as to whether Democrats can pick up ground in the Midwest after years of Republican gains. Iowa backed President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before voting for President Donald Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 as a result of his strength with white working-class voters.
But Democrats view Iowa as especially competitive this year as they brace for a more favorable national environment fueled by Trump’s declining approval rating. They believe the president’s unpopularity, along with the impact of his tariff policy on farmers, could give them a chance at flipping Iowa in this year’s elections.
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In the governor's race, Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand is facing Republican businessman Zach Lahn, while in the U.S. Senate race, state Representative Josh Turek, a Democrat, is facing off against Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.
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The Emerson poll gave Sand a lead in the governor's race, while Hinson had a lead in the Senate race—the latest sign that Iowa could be competitive in the midterms. It surveyed 712 likely voters August 2-4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
In a statement to Newsweek, a Lahn spokesperson wrote: "Rob Sand is a lifelong liberal who supports amnesty, AOC’s green new deal, abortion on demand, and teaching transgenderism in public schools."
Newsweek reached out to the Sand, Turek and Hinson campaigns for comment.
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Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn: Iowa Governor Race
Sand held a 5-point lead over Lahn in the governor's race, 48 percent to 43 percent, according to the Emerson poll. Two percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else, while 7 percent were still undecided.
It’s the third major independent poll released over the past few weeks showing Sand with a lead.
A survey from The New York Times and Siena University, conducted among 600 likely voters June 15-27, showed Sand up a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
Meanwhile, a Fox News poll showed Sand up 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent. It was conducted by Beach Research and Shaw & Company Research from June 23-27 among 1,003 registered voters.
According to the Emerson poll, Sand is broadly popular in the state despite its rightward shift. Fifty-one percent of respondents said they view him favorably, compared to 31 percent viewing him unfavorably. Lahn, on the other hand, was viewed favorably by 36 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 40 percent.
Iowa last elected a Democratic governor in 2006, when Chet Culver won in a blue wave. He lost his reelection bid in 2010.
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson: Iowa Senate Race
Hinson held a slight lead in the Senate race against Turek, 47.5 percent to 45 percent, in the Emerson poll. She was viewed favorably by 44 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 40 percent, while Turek was viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent.
The Times poll also showed Hinson up 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent. The Fox News poll, however, showed Turek up 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
The seat opened when Republican Joni Ernst opted to retire rather than seek another term in the Senate. Tom Harkin is the last Democrat to win a Senate race in Iowa, in 2008. He retired in 2014, when Ernst first was elected.
What Do Prediction Markets Show About Iowa?
Sand is favored to flip the Iowa governorship in prediction markets, having a 63 percent chance on Kalshi and a 68 percent chance on Polymarket as of Thursday afternoon. But Hinson is favored in the Senate race with a 61 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Iowa’s Path From Battleground to Republican State
Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with Obama carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012. But Trump performed well in the state in each of his presidential bids, winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.
Iowa’s shifts are emblematic of those across the Midwest, where Democrats lost ground among white working-class voters who flocked to Trump and Republicans over the past decade. Winning back those voters will be key to flipping the state in the midterms.
Three of Iowa’s four congressional districts are viewed as competitive in the midterms as Democrats hope to reclaim a majority of seats in the House. In Iowa’s First District—one of the closest races in 2024—GOP Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a challenge from Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative.
In Iowa’s Second District, vacated by Hinson, Republican former state Representative Joe Mitchell and Democratic state Representative Lindsay James are running. In Iowa’s Third District, Representative Zach Nunn, a Republican, faces a challenge from Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott.
What Happens Next
Election Day is November 3, so candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters. The governor's race is viewed as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, while both classify the Senate race as Lean Republican.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Dave Siminoff.
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