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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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The Detroit Lions didn't exactly sneak up on anyone in 2023 after finishing 9-8 in 2022.
Plenty of fans and bettors expected big things in Year 3 under coach Dan Campbell, and his team more than lived up to the expectations, with a 12-5 regular season and playoff wins over the Rams and Buccaneers.
Even more is expected this season.
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Oddsmakers view Detroit as one of the top Super Bowl contenders (its outrights are the fourth-shortest in the league, behind only the Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens), the second-favorite to win the NFC and a heavy favorite to win the NFC North and reach the playoffs.
At this point, the Lions' upward trajectory -- from 3-13-1 in 2021 to 9-8 in 2022 to 12-5 (and, at one point, up big on San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game) -- is undeniable.
That leaves one question: can QB Jared Goff and Co. take the next step in 2024 and reach -- and/or win -- the Super Bowl?
Detroit Lions 2024 Futures Odds
Few teams in the league have a higher floor than Detroit, hence the win total of 10.5 -- with a bet of $120 or more necessary just to win $100 on the Lions getting to 11 wins.
Only last year's Super Bowl teams, the Chiefs and Niners, have a higher win total than Detroit.
In every 2024 NFL futures market, the Lions are getting a ton of respect. That's understandable after they went 4-2 down the stretch in 2023 to finish at 14-6 (12-5 regular season) following a near-road upset of San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
Lions fans have been ready to turn the page on what happened on January 28 at Levi's Stadium for months. Still, it's worth pointing out that Detroit led that game 24-7 at halftime before a furious second-half rally by the Niners, who won 34-31 to advance to Super Bowl 58.
Detroit Lions 2024 Betting Outlook
The Detroit offense had few weaknesses a year ago, as Goff's evolution continued for a unit that was among the most balanced in the league.
With Goff throwing for 4,575 yards and 30 TDs and RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs leading a ground game that piled up a league-high 27 rushing TDs, the Lions offense was humming by the end of the season.
Will opposing defenses figure out Detroit's offense?
The Lions are coming off back-to-back outstanding seasons offensively (fifth in the NFL in scoring in both 2022 and 2023) under coordinator Ben Johnson. The 38-year-old has turned down head-coaching opportunities each of the past two offseasons.
As long as he, Goff, 2023 first-team All Pro WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, star tight end Sam LaPorta and Pro Bowl O-linemen Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow stay healthy in 2023, this unit will remain among the best in the league.
A scary thought for opposing defenses is that there's good reason to believe Detroit will be even better this season. The case for this offense improving in '24 includes the following:
- LaPorta and Gibbs are both coming off outstanding rookie seasons, and should be even better as they continue to mature.
- Goff's interceptions should decrease, as he threw 12 in 2023 after throwing a total of 15 in 2021 and 2022.
- Detroit's already rock-solid offensive line could also be even better after adding 34-year-old guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency. He gives Detroit four former first-rounders among its projected starting five O-linemen, including three who went to the 2023 Pro Bowl.
If there's a weakness for Detroit's offense, it's the lack of a proven second wide receiver, but there are a few reasons why that's not a significant red flag.
For one thing, Detroit is coming off back-to-back seasons in which it had plenty of success despite limited production from any receivers other than St. Brown.
Kalif Raymond caught just 47 passes in 2022, and last year's No. 2 receiver, Josh Reynolds, finished with 40 catches. This hasn't hamstrung the Lions, however, due in large part to how well Detroit uses its running backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Third-year WR Jameson Williams, a speedster who has shown flashes in limited work (18 appearances) since Detroit drafted him at No. 12 overall in 2022, or Raymond could step us as a dangerous complement to ARSB in 2024. But recent history has shown that regardless of whether either of those players steps up in 2024, Detroit will be plenty potent.
Will Detroit's offseason overhaul of its secondary put it over the top?
While the Lions offense featured no clear Achilles heel in 2023, the same could not be said for the defense.
DE Aidan Hutchinson and DT Alim McNeill anchor a solid front seven, but Detroit's secondary was not good enough a year ago, when the Lions gave up 4,205 yards passing and 28 touchdowns. They finished 27th in the NFL in both those stats.
The Lions devoted plenty of resources to the their defensive backfield this offseason. First, they traded a 2024 third-rounder to acquire former Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis III and signed free agent nickel corner Amik Robertson from the Raiders.
In April, they traded up from No. 29 to No. 24 to draft Alabama corner Terrion Arnold in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Between the three probable starters this team acquired this offseason, not to mention rookie second-round corner Ennis Rakestraw Jr., 2023 second-round safety Brian Branch and 2022 third-round safety Kerby Joseph, the Lions' secondary now features no shortage of young talent.
If this unit can shore up the pass defense -- and assuming Hutchinson, McNeill and linebackers Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell are once again stout against the run -- Detroit will have everything it needs to match, if not surpass, last year's run to the NFC Championship Game.
Detroit Lions 2024 Best Bets
Lions to Win NFC (+550) -- available at FD, DK, bet365
Even if you're bullish on this team, its playoff odds and NFC North odds offer little value.
The Lions deserve their status as the favorites to win their division, but given how good Green Bay -- and, to a lesser degree, Chicago -- look on paper, the Lions to win the North at +140 doesn't jump out as a smart move.
So the question is, do you trust Detroit to knock off San Francisco in a potential playoff rematch in January?
Given how close they came to doing just that last January -- on the road, no less -- plus the possibility that the 49ers will be without star WR Brandon Aiyuk this season, Detroit is a solid play to win the NFC, especially at longer than +500 odds.
Lions Regular Season Win Total Over: 10.5 (-122) -- available at FD
Detroit figures to be a better team than the one that went 21-13 over the last two seasons. On the surface, that should make it a safe bet to go over its posted win total.
The schedule will make it difficult to reach this number, though.
In addition to playing in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, Detroit plays at San Francisco in Week 17 and at Dallas (Week 6) outside the NFC North. The Lions also have a couple tricky home games outside the division: the Rams visit Detroit in Week 1, and the Bills come to town in Week 15.
Detroit's slate shouldn't quite convince you not to bet on this team going over 10.5 wins, but it is something to keep in mind (especially at odds this short).
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