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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell sharply in recent days, and could slip more as new surveys fully reflect late-January events, according to leading polling expert Nate Silver.
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek: “The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth, secure our border and mass deport criminal illegal aliens.”
Why It Matters
Silver’s tracker placed Trump’s net approval at -14.3 as of February 3, 2026, indicating significantly more Americans disapprove than approve of his job performance, a level close to his second-term low of -15.0, underscoring persistent headwinds for the White House and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
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What To Know
Trump’s approval rating is under pressure — and it may not have hit rock bottom yet.
That’s because, according to Nate Silver’s live tracker and a new analysis by Silver Bulletin senior elections analyst Eli McKown-Dawson on the Silver Bulletin site, the full political impact of the January 24 killing of Alex Pretti has not yet been fully absorbed in the national numbers.
Most of the highest‑weighted surveys in Silver’s average include at least some interviews conducted after the killing.
But critically, many of those same polls began fieldwork before January 24, meaning a chunk of respondents were answering without knowledge of the incident.
As McKown-Dawson notes, that timing creates a kind of statistical shadow: the initial wave of post‑event data is only partially informed by the news environment that now dominates coverage.
"As the killing becomes fully baked into the polls, Trump’s numbers might decline further," McKown-Dawson wrote.
The shooting of Pretti—a 37‑year‑old ICU nurse killed by federal immigration officers in Minneapolis—triggered immediate protests after videos contradicted early administration claims that he posed a violent threat.
The backlash intensified scrutiny of Trump’s immigration crackdown and created a politically volatile backdrop that could further pressure his approval ratings as fully post‑incident polling comes in.
Silver’s presidential approval average showed a net -14.3 on February 3, 2026, with the share of Americans who strongly disapprove rising to a second-term high of 45.7 percent and just 24.2 percent strongly approving.
Over the next few weeks, as pollsters enter the field with fresh samples and voters respond with full awareness of the killing and its aftermath, Trump’s approval rating could erode further.
This is the period when an event becomes "fully baked" into polling—when the public has processed it, discussed it, and begun to connect it to broader views of a president’s leadership and judgment.
Silver’s tracker compiles and weights surveys from adults, registered voters, and likely voters, prioritizing all-adult samples when multiple versions are released, while adjusting for pollster "house effects," recency, frequency of publication, pollster rating, and sample size.
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Recent individual polls have shown Trump’s approval underwater, including a Fox News survey conducted January 23-26, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, finding 44 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval among 1,005 registered voters, with issue ratings of 45 percent approval on immigration, 40 percent on the economy, and 35 percent on inflation.
Similarly, Trump’s overall job approval edged down to 45 percent in January, from 47 percent in December, reflecting broad slippage across core issue areas including the economy, immigration and foreign affairs, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll.
The online survey of 2,000 registered voters, conducted January 28–29 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points, showed a year‑long pattern of gradual erosion across nearly every policy metric.
However, one area where Trump showed an uptick was on a newly tested question about his response to the anti‑ICE protests in Minneapolis, where 51 percent of voters expressed approval.
And Trump has clawed back to 50 percent approval in a new InsiderAdvantage national survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted January 31–February 1, using a mixed‑mode text/panel approach and weighted by age, race, gender and party. The poll carries a 3.09‑point margin of error.
What People Are Saying
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek: “Nearly 80 million Americans gave President Trump a resounding Election Day mandate to end Joe Biden’s economic disaster and immigration crisis. The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth secure our border, and mass deport criminal illegal aliens.”
Eli McKown-Dawson, co-author of Silver Bulletin’s approval tracker, wrote: "The polls have not been kind to Donald Trump this week. As of today, his net approval rating in our average is down to -14.3. That’s better than his second term low of -15.0, but not by much.
"Drilling down into that number, the share of Americans who strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing hit a second term high of 45.7 percent yesterday. Comparatively few Americans—24.2 percent—strongly approve of Trump."
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery: "I am keenly aware that our polling of Donald Trump is viewed by some as an outlier. But I am equally aware that our track record of polling him in his three presidential races has consistently been among the most accurate of public pollsters.
"In our latest round of polling (over the past two weeks) we have seen Trump’s approval drop to a 43 percent immediately following the shooting and death of a man by ICE agents in Minnesota, only to rebound to the 50 percent level following a replacement of leadership of ICE efforts in that state."
Trump on Truth Social: "The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!"
Republican pollster Daron Shaw: "The president faces two difficult obstacles—the virtually unanimous and intractable opposition of Democrats and the stubbornness of high prices."
What Happens Next
Republican strategists and Democratic campaign committees will likely recalibrate midterm elections messaging around inflation, immigration, and economic performance as issue ratings shift, with upcoming polls from major media and academic outlets offering further signals of where voters stand heading into the 2026 cycle.
Update, 02/05/26, 07:30 a.m. ET. This article was updated with comment from White House spokesman Kush Desai.
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