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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump’s approval rating among voters with a high school education or less has fallen to an all-time low, according to new polling, raising fresh questions about whether the president is losing ground with one of his most reliable political constituencies.
The latest figures from Echelon Insights show Trump is now firmly underwater with this group—marking a dramatic reversal from the early months of his second term, when he enjoyed strong positive ratings among less-educated voters.
For a demographic that has consistently anchored Republican electoral success in recent years, the shift signals a potentially significant crack in the coalition that returned Trump to the White House.
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White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek that Trump had delivered “historic progress” at home and abroad, adding that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people,” while highlighting efforts to “create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.”
The administration added that the president’s agenda is still “taking effect,” with further results expected in the months ahead.
Key Points
- According to the latest Echelon Insights poll, Trump’s overall approval stands at 38 percent, with 61 percent disapproving (net minus 23).
- Among voters with a high school education or less, approval is 41 percent, disapproval 57 percent (net minus 16), which is the lowest it has been with this demographic in this polling series.
- In July 2025, his net approval with this group was minus 7.
- At the start of his second term, he held a net plus-18 approval rating with less-educated voters.
- That equates to a 34-point swing since January 2025 among this key demographic.
Clear Base Weakness
The latest Echelon Insights July 2026 Omnibus Survey provides the most up-to-date snapshot:
- Sample size: 1,004 likely voters
- Field dates: July 9–13, 2026
- Margin of error: plus or minus 3.6 percentage points
Results:
- Overall voters: 38 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove (net minus 23)
- High school or less education: 41 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove (net minus 16)
While Trump remains slightly stronger with this group than nationally, he is now clearly underwater—a notable shift for a demographic that has historically leaned in his favor.
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One-Year Trend
A comparison with the July 2025 Omnibus shows deterioration across the board:
- Sample size: 1,084 registered voters
- Field dates: July 10–14, 2025
- Margin of error: plus or minus 3.6 percentage points
Results:
- Overall voters: 45 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove (net minus 8)
- High school or less education: 46 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove (net minus 7)
That means:
- Trump’s overall net approval worsened by 15 points (from minus 8 to minus 23)
- Among less-educated voters, his net rating dropped 9 points (from minus 7 to minus 16)
Both figures show decline, but the crucial point is that his base has not been insulated from it.
From Strength to Deficit
At the outset of his second term, Trump’s standing among less educated voters was substantially stronger, according to the January 2025 Voter Omnibus:
- Sample size: 1,024 likely voters
- Field dates: January 22–24, 2025
- Margin of error: plus or minus 3.5 percentage points
Results:
- Overall voters: 51 percent approve, 43 percent disapprove (net plus 8)
- High school or less education: 56 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove (net plus 18)
Comparing those figures to July 2026:
- Overall approval has shifted from net plus 8 to net minus 23 (a 31-point drop)
- Among less-educated voters, from net plus 18 to net minus 16 (a 34-point drop)
That decline is sharper among this demographic than the electorate overall—an important signal about how opinion is evolving.
A Core Trump Advantage Under Strain
Trump’s political success has been closely tied to strong performance among voters without college degrees.
Exit poll data from the 2024 election showed non-college voters favored Trump by a clear margin, making them a decisive bloc in key swing states.
More broadly, this “diploma divide” has shaped American politics for nearly a decade, with non-college voters leaning Republican while college graduates generally trend Democratic.
In that context, the latest polling is striking—not because Trump has lost this group outright, but because the margin of support has narrowed significantly and moved into negative territory.
Broader Evidence of Slippage
The Echelon findings align with other polling analysis showing declining support among voters without college degrees, particularly outside the Republican base.
An analysis of AP-NORC polling found that approval among independents without a college education dropped sharply during Trump’s second term—falling from around half before taking office to about one-quarter by early 2026.
That shift suggests the erosion is not confined to one dataset, but part of a wider pattern affecting a group that was once central to Trump’s appeal.
In the July poll from Echelon, Trump's favorability among independents and men also fell year over year. His favorability among men this year is 42 percent compared to a 58 percent unfavorable rating. With independents, Trump's favorability is 23 percent compared to a 75 percent unfavorable rating.
Last year, the president's favorability with men was 52 percent compared to a 47 percent unfavorable rating. Among independents, Trump's favorability was 43 percent with the pollster compared to a 52 percent unfavorable rating.
Why This Could Matter for 2026
The electoral significance of less-educated voters cannot be overstated.
They make up a substantial share of the electorate and are particularly influential in battleground regions such as the Midwest and parts of the South. Even modest shifts in support can translate into large changes in electoral outcomes.
Midterm elections amplify these effects. Turnout is typically lower and more variable, meaning shifts in enthusiasm among core groups can have an outsized impact.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Alfred Joyner, Anna Commander and Yannick Demoustier.
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