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By Martha McHardy
US News Reporter
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President Donald Trump has fallen into negative territory even in polling conducted by one of his most consistently favorable firms.
A new survey from Big Data Poll, long seen as a bellwether for pro-Trump sentiment, shows the president with a slightly underwater approval rating for the first time, signaling potential erosion of support within his core base.
Why It Matters
The polling comes after Trump had seen an uptick in approval ratings in several polls following an earlier plunge to an all-time low for his second term after protests in Los Angeles and airstrikes in Iran.
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What To Know
The latest survey, conducted July 12 to 14, shows 48 percent of voters approve of Trump's performance, while 49 percent disapprove—a net rating of -1. It marks the first time Trump has registered underwater in the firm's polling since he reentered office.
The downward trend marks a sharp contrast to earlier in the year. In May, Big Data Poll had Trump narrowly above water at +1 (48 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove). That figure was already a notable drop from January, shortly after Trump returned to office, when the pollster recorded one of his strongest ratings: 56 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval, a net positive of +19.
Much of the decline appears to be driven by a decrease in support among independents. Just 37 percent of independents now approve of Trump's job performance, while 56.6 percent disapprove.
Demographic shifts offer a more complex picture. Trump's approval among voters ages 30–49 remains relatively strong, and he has seen a bump in support from Americans with at least a four-year college degree, a group that has historically been skeptical of him.
However, this progress is offset by a steep decline among younger voters aged 18–29, who have become increasingly disillusioned in recent months. Approval ratings among older voters have remained relatively stable: those aged 65–74 have largely remained unchanged since May, while voters aged 75 and older have shown a marginal improvement.
Nonetheless, the deterioration suggests that frustrations with the administration's policy focus and messaging, especially after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, foreign policy decisions like the bombing of Iran, and the fallout over the Epstein files, are cutting into Trump's appeal beyond his core base.
Meanwhile, broader public sentiment about the country's direction has also become more pessimistic. The gap between those who say the U.S. is on the right track and those who believe it's headed in the wrong direction widened slightly in July, returning to double digits after months of improvement.
Just 39.4 percent now say the country is headed in the right direction, while 50.8 percent say it's on the wrong track and 9.8 percent remain undecided. The reversal is notable because this traditionally bleak indicator had been trending more positively under Trump's second term—until now.
"Voters, specifically part of the president's partisan base and independents, believe the administration is focusing too much on issues that matter little to them, and dismissing issues that do," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said in a statement. "Fair or not, that's how they feel and those feelings will need to be appreciated and their concerns addressed if he hopes to recover."
"The White House clearly lost the messaging war over the One Big Beautiful Bill and that's in no small part due to those achievements being overshadowed."
It comes as polls have shown Trump's approval rating in decline, hitting an all-time low.
That includes Newsweek's tracker, which shows Trump's net approval rating at an all-time low of -11 points, with 43 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.
Individual polls also showed Trump's ratings dropping. The most dramatic drop came from YouGov's poll, which saw Trump's approval rating fall from -5 in early July to -17 in the latest survey conducted from July 9 to 13 (39 percent approval, 56 percent disapproval).
The Economist/YouGov poll, conducted over a similar period, also showed deterioration. Trump's net rating slipped to -14 (41–55), down from -11 earlier this month.
Even Echelon Insights, which has at times offered more favorable numbers for the president, showed his position weakening, with approval falling from -4 to -8 (45–53). Ipsos/Reuters, meanwhile, showed Trump holding steady at -13 (41–54), unchanged from early June.
Quinnipiac's poll remained relatively unchanged but still underwater, holding at -14 (40–54). CNN/SSRS, which has consistently been among Trump's worst-performing pollsters, reported a net -16 in its previous wave; the latest results, at -18 (42–58), suggest little movement. Similarly, the new poll from Quantus Insights showed no gain from the previous wave, holding steady at -2 (48–50), suggesting a ceiling may be forming even among Trump-leaning pollsters.
One of the few bright spots came from Morning Consult, where Trump improved slightly from a -6 net rating to -3 (47–50). AP-NORC also showed marginal movement in Trump's favor, rising from -21 to -18 (40–58), though the president remains deeply unpopular in that survey.
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