Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election by a Landslide

Donald Trump's chances of securing a landslide Electoral College victory could be lower than 5 percent, according to bookmakers.

The incumbent president has odds of 20-1 of gaining more than 400 votes from electors, according to Oddschecker. That implies he has just a 4.76 percent chance.

Joe Biden stands a better chance of a securing 400 electors, the odds aggregator said. The Democratic nominee is priced at 7-1, suggesting a probability of 12.5 percent.

U.K.-based bookmaker Betfair gave longer odds for both candidates of securing such a landslide in the Electoral College: Trump is priced at 31-1, while Biden has odds of 16-1.

"In a tight race, either candidate running away with the election looks somewhat unlikely, although it's worth bearing in mind that under the Electoral College voting system, as few as a couple of hundred thousand votes in crucial states can turn a tight race into a landslide," said Betfair's Darren Hughes.

With just four days to go until Election Day, more than 80 million votes have already been cast.

Biden has led in the national polls and the betting markets in recent months, and, crucially, enjoys a narrow lead in a number of battleground states that are likely to decide the outcome of the 2020 election.

The consistency with which the Democratic challenger has been ahead has led pundits to question whether a landslide Biden victory is a potential outcome. Many are wary, though, of relying on the pollsters, which pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the presidency last time around.

The Democrats taking Texas is one possible route to a landslide—and some believe Biden's party is in with a chance of doing so. A poll released published on Thursday suggested Trump could win support from 48 percent of Texan voters likely to vote, compared to Biden on 47 percent. The poll by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion had a 4.3-point margin of error.

GOP Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska has also warned of the potential for a crushing Democrat victory, warning of a "Republican bloodbath" during a town hall event this month.

Donald Trump figurine
A supporter holds a figurine of Donald Trump during a Make America Great Again campaign rally in Tampa, Florida on October 29, 2020. The chances of the president winning a landslide are slim, according to bookmakers. RICARDO ARDUENGO/AFP/Getty Images

The most recent landslide election, in which a candidate has taken at least 400 Electoral College votes, came in 1988 when George H. W. Bush secured 426 of the 539 on offer.

Four years earlier, incumbent Republican President Ronald Reagan defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale, taking 525 of the 539 Electoral College votes.

Reagan achieved a similar feat in 1980, when he took 489 Electoral College votes.

Barack Obama's 2008 election victory was the closest the U.S. has come to a landslide in the last two decades. He secured the backing from 365 of the Electoral College members.