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By Marni Rose McFall
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President Donald Trump has cited autism prevalence figures that differ wildly from the latest official government data, raising questions about the accuracy and consequences of his remarks, ahead of a what he described as one of the the "biggest" announcements in American history, about Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).
In a discussion with reporters aboard Air Force One following Charlie Kirk's memorial service on Sunday, the president said that 15 years ago "1 in 10,000" children were born with autism. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the prevalence rate in 2010 was 1 in 68. He also referred to "two different studies" that showed the rate in boys was 1 in 12 and 1 in 10.
Newsweek was unable to find a peer-reviewed or major study that matched the remarks made by the president and has contacted the White House for comment via email.
Read More
Author of Study Linking Tylenol to Autism Says More Research Still Needed5 min read
Why It Matters
Trump's comments to reporters come ahead of a planned announcement on autism later Monday.
Trump's autism announcement on Monday may represent a potentially significant shift in federal autism policy and research direction.
According to The Washington Post, which cited four sources familiar with the administration's plans, it is expected that officials will tie autism to acetaminophen use during pregnancy and promote leucovorin as a potential treatment. This approach could fundamentally alter medical guidance for pregnant women and autism treatment protocols and may affect millions of families.
The initiative has drawn involvement from top health officials, including Food & Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Marty Makary and National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Jay Bhattacharya.
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What To Know
When asked by a reporter if he planned to link Tylenol to an increased risk of autism during Monday's announcement, Trump said, "I think it's a very big factor. I think you'll see what it is. We have various items. I think it's going to be a very important news conference."
"But you think if you think of it, let's say 15 years ago and 1 in 10,000 that were born with autism and now it's making it 1 in 12, 1 in 10 boys, one in 10 or 12, two different studies," he continued. "Girls, one in 20. Can you imagine, 22 years ago, it was one in 20,000. So that's obviously something artificial that's really wrong. And we think we know what that is."
According to data from the CDC, in 2010 the prevalence rate was 1 in 68, and in 2000, it was 1 in 150. It is now 1 in 31 8-year-olds who have been diagnosed with ASD. The full report states that 1 in 20 boys have ASD, while 1 in 70 girls do.
The "1 in 10,000" figure cited by the president could refer to a 1970 survey of children in Wisconsin, which identified a 0.7 per 10,000 prevalence rate. That study was based only on children who came into contact with psychiatric hospitals or specialized clinics and were diagnosed under much narrower criteria than are used today. Many children who would now fall under the broader autism spectrum were never counted. As a result, medical experts say, the figure dramatically underestimates prevalence and cannot be meaningfully compared to modern CDC data, which reflects wider screening, broader diagnostic definitions, and better awareness.
A 2025 article in Science, Public Health Policy and the Law, ajournal categorized as "pseudoscience" by watchdog site Media Bias/Fact Check, said that 1 in 12.5 boys in California had ASD, citing CDC data, and could be one of the studies Trump cited. The CDC data in question actually shows that 88.7 per 1000 4-year-old boys have autism in California, or 1 in 11. The surveillance area covered by the CDC was part of one county in metropolitan San Diego.
The CDC also reported that about 1 in 6 children, 17 percent between the ages of 3 and 17, had been diagnosed with a developmental disability, reported by parents, during a study period of 2009 to 2017. This included ASD, as well as other disabilities like blindness and cerebral palsy.
Additionally, when asked if there would be an announcement about a potential link between vaccines and autism, Trump said: "We'll see tomorrow. Vaccines are very interesting. They can be great. But when you put the wrong stuff in them, and children get these massive vaccines, like you give to a horse. Like you give to a horse. And I said for a long time, this is no secret. Spread out over five years. Five shots. Small ones. Did you ever see what they give? They give, I mean, for a little baby to be injected with that much fluid? Even beyond the actual ingredients. Sometimes 80 different vaccines. It's crazy. That's a commonsense thing. It's like you're shooting up a horse. You have a little body, a little baby, and you're pumping this big thing. It's a horrible thing. So we'll be having a big discussion tomorrow about autism."
According to a 2025 fact sheet, the CDC recommends 12 vaccines from birth through age 6.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump: "And tomorrow, we're gonna have one of the biggest announcements, really, medically, I think, in the history of our country, we're gonna be doing it with Bobby and Oz, and all of the professionals. I think you're gonna find it...to be amazing. I think we found an answer to autism."
White House spokesman Kush Desai: "President Trump pledged to address America's rising rate of autism, and to do so with Gold Standard Science. Tomorrow's announcement will make historic progress on both commitments."
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in an April Cabinet meeting: "We've launched a massive testing and research effort that's going to involve hundreds of scientists from around the world. By September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic and we'll be able to eliminate those exposures."
What Happens Next
The president's autism announcement is scheduled for Monday in the Oval Office.
Correction, 09/23/2025, 7:10 a.m. ET: An earlier version of this article misstated the CDC autism prevalence rate from the year 2000.
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