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By James Bickerton
News Reporter
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Donald Trump has replaced Kamala Harris as the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, according to a number of leading bookmakers.
As of 3 a.m. ET on Thursday, Trump had better odds of winning in November than Harris at Paddypower, Betfair, William Hill and 888.sport. They all had the vice president as favorite as recently as Tuesday.
Trump's gains come amid growing speculation independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will drop out of the White House race and endorse the Republican nominee. On Wednesday, ABC News reported Kennedy is likely to leave the race on Friday, when he is due to deliver a major address at 2 p.m. ET. According to analysis of recent polling by election website RacetotheWH, Kennedy pulling out could be enough to flip the key battleground states of North Carolina and Nevada from Harris to Trump.
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Paddypower and Betfair are offering odds of 5/6 (54.5 percent) on a Trump win in November against 10/11 (52.4 percent) for Harris. By contrast on August 20 both bookmakers had odds of 4/5 (55.6 percent) on a Harris win versus 10/11 (52.4 percent) for Trump.
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William Hill and 888.sport have odds of 4/5 (55.6 percent) on a Trump win against 1/1 (50 percent) for Harris. However, on August 20 both betting companies had these odds reversed with Harris in the lead with 4/5, ahead of Trump on 1/1.
Speaking to Newsweek, Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: "President Trump continues to build a historic and unified political movement to make America strong, wealthy, and safe again. Comrade Kamala Harris is the most unpopular vice president in history and our campaign will spend every day until November 5th ensuring every voter understands how dangerously liberal Kamala is."
Newsweek contacted representatives of the Harris and Kennedy campaigns for comment on Thursday via email outside of regular office hours.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "Despite the Democratic Convention taking place this week, we've seen sustained backing for Donald Trump in the past few days. This time last week Kamala Harris hit her shortest ever odds to win the election at 10/11, but since then the betting has tightened and Trump has regained the lead on the Betfair Exchange market.
"Just over £1 million has been wagered on our Election Winner market since the DNC started, and the majority of that has been for Donald Trump, which has shifted the odds in his favour, however we have actually taken more bets on Kamala Harris in that time."
Trump is the favorite with leading bookmakers despite the latest analysis by election website FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates polling and weighs it by sample and perceived reliability, giving Harris a 3.3 percentage point lead over Trump.
On August 21, FiveThirtyEight had Harris on 47 percent of the vote ahead of Trump on 43.7 percent and Kennedy with 4.7 percent support.
On Wednesday, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who Harris selected as her 2024 running mate, delivered a keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago that leaned heavily into his former role as a high school football coach.
Against a backdrop of convention attendees holding up signs reading "Coach Walz," the governor said: "I haven't given a lot of big speeches like this, but I have given a lot of pep talks.
"It's the fourth quarter, we're down a field goal but we're on offense and we've got the ball. We're driving down the field and boy do we have the right team."
The governor continued: "We've got 76 days. That's nothing. There'll be time to sleep when you're dead. We're going to leave it on the field."
Wednesday also saw the DNC addressed by talk show legend Oprah Winfrey, who tore into the ticket of Trump and Ohio Senator JD Vance, his running mate.
Winfrey said: "I'm telling you the truth, that values and character matter most of all in leadership and in life, and more than anything, you know, this is true, that decency and respect are on the ballot in 2024.
"Common sense tells you that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz can give us decency and respect."
Update 8/22/24 7:50 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from Betfair Spokesperson Sam Rosbottom.
Update 8/23/24 2:10 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
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