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By Alia Shoaib
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Donald Trump is set to hold a campaign rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on October 29, aiming to win over voters in a critical battleground state both presidential candidates see as pivotal to win the upcoming election.
Polls from recent weeks show Republican presidential candidate Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris neck and neck, with their leads mostly falling within the polls' margins of error.
A poll by InsiderAdvantage taken between October 26 and 27 shows Trump one percentage point ahead of Harris, 48 percent to 47 percent. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent.
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Another recent poll by American Greatness conducted by North Star Opinion Research shows both candidates in a dead heat with 47 percent each. The poll, conducted between October 22 and 26, surveyed 600 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. This poll noted that the sample included more Democrats than Republicans, and said the results reflected a big shift toward early voting for Republicans.
Newsweek reached out to Trump and Harris's campaigns for comment via email.
Another poll conducted by Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania shows Trump ahead 49 percent to Harris' 48 percent. This poll was conducted between October 21 and 22 of a sample of 860 likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.
The pollster noted that there has been no major changes since their last poll in late September.
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"There is a significant age divide among voters: voters under 50 favor Harris, 57 percent to 39 percent, while voters over 50 break for Trump, 57 percent to 41 percent," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Kimball noted that 85 percent of Pennsylvanian voters decided who to support over a month ago, and that this bracket of voters slightly favor Trump. Meanwhile, more recent deciders, though a smaller group, lean toward Harris.
Trump's upcoming rally in Pennsylvania is expected to draw protests from Allentown's sizable Puerto Rican community, following a comedian making racist joke about Puerto Rico at Trump's last rally, at New York City's Madison Square Garden.
Trump won the state against Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a narrow margin of 0.72 percent. President Joe Biden won it back from Trump in 2020 by another narrow margin of 1.17 percent.
While Trump and Harris are both vying to get ahead in several key swing states, Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is considered the most important.
Pennsylvania is also often considered a bellwether state. According to polling expert Nate Silver calculations, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90 percent chance of winning the election.
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