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By Dan Gooding
Associate News Editor
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Prediction markets have shown higher chances that President Donald Trump will be impeached before his second term ends, as his approval rating reached what polling analyst Nate Silver's latest rundown showed was uncharted territory this week.
Polymarket’s contract on whether Trump will be impeached before January 20, 2029, showed 47 percent for “Yes,” while prior Kalshi milestones documented by Newsweek had climbed to record highs earlier this month, even with Republicans controlling both chambers in Congress.
Why It Matters
Trump himself has predicted he will be impeached if Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives once more in November's midterm elections, telling Republican members in January that the party would find a reason to impeach him.
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Previous attempts to impeach Trump in his first and second terms have seen differing levels of success, but never made it to the point of removing him from office.
The president's slumping approval ratings come amid primary season for congressional races across the country, with Democrats seeking to capitalize on unrest over the war in Iran, sweeping immigration raids, and slow-to-happen grocery price reductions.
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What To Know
Polymarket’s contract “Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?” showed a current probability of 47 percent for “Yes." The market will resolve to “Yes” if the House approves one or more articles of impeachment between market creation and January 20, 2029, at noon ET, when Trump is due to leave office, with neither a Senate trial nor conviction required.
Polymarket listed House and Senate GOP control—220 to 215 in the House and 53 to 47 in the Senate—as the core barrier to impeachment, while noting catalysts that could shift pricing, such as a major bipartisan scandal or a House flip in the 2026 midterms.
Kalshi’s impeachment market reached a record 67 percent likelihood on February 22 and again on March 6, 2026, according to Newsweek’s review, while a separate Polymarket time‑bounded contract showed only an 11 percent chance of impeachment occurring in 2026 at that time, reflecting trader skepticism about near‑term House action under GOP leadership.
Silver’s approval tracker aggregated polls across adults, registered voters, and likely voters, weighting surveys by pollster rating, sample size, recency, and house effects, and identified a new net low of minus 15.3 percent for Trump, driven by near‑universal Democratic disapproval and growing negativity among independents.
The House previously voted down impeachment resolutions during Trump’s second term, including efforts in June and December 2025, while Democratic leaders said impeachment requires a comprehensive process that has not advanced under the Republican majority.
Impeachment requires only a simple House majority, making control of the chamber pivotal; traders have focused on whether narrow Republican majorities can hold through 2026 as approval softens, even though Senate conviction would still demand a two‑thirds vote.
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What People Are Saying
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek on Thursday: “What matters most to the American people is having a commander‑in‑chief who takes decisive action to eliminate threats and keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump is doing with the ongoing successful Operation Epic Fury."
President Donald Trump, speaking to the New York Post about approval numbers tied to the Iran war: “I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago."
Brett Loyd of the Independent Center told Newsweek on Thursday: “Presidential approval remains a functional barometer for tracking the momentum of an administration’s start and finish, but its day‑to‑day utility has diminished."
What Happens Next
While Trump has warned Democrats will seek to impeach him, he and other White House officials have maintained that the policies they are rolling out are for the betterment of the American people and that their work will continue.
Update 3/20/26, 1:25 p.m. ET: This article was updated to clarify details on Nate Silver's analysis.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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