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By Jordan King
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U.S. President Donald Trump told Iowans to “pretend [he] is on the ballot” in the November election, a message that may test Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson’s campaign strategy, which has seemingly focused on presenting her as more independent.
Trump rallied for Hinson, who is in a race against Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, and other Republican candidates defending three House districts and the governor's office in Sioux City on Thursday. He told the crowd: "Pretend I'm on the ballot, because if you get out, we're going to win big.”
This close alignment may present a challenge, for “some Republican officeholders are concerned that the base might be less than enthusiastic about the election and might stay home,” political professor Timothy Hagle previously told Newsweek.
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While Representative Hinson has not totally turned her back on Trump, who endorsed her last September, she has put some distance between her and the administration, making it clear that she is prepared to challenge it when necessary. Most recently, she said she planned to tell Trump his diesel deal with Russia is a “bad idea.”
It comes after she called for an end to the war in Iran last month, a departure from her own voting record, and spoke out against Iowans being “squeezed” economically, saying they should have to bear the brunt of the costs.
While Trump carried the state by 13 percentage points in 2024, the agricultural heartland of America has been hard hit by the impacts of Trump’s tariff wars and the knock-on effects the conflict in Iran has had on the price of gas, making Iowa one of this year's most crucial races in determining who gets control of the U.S. Senate.
Hinson, who appeared alongside Trump at Thursday’s rally, told supporters: "If we lose this seat here in Iowa, the Democrats will control the US Senate. Mark my words.”
Newsweek has contacted Hinson’s campaign and the White House, via email, for comment.
Support for Trump in Iowa
Trump has a negative approval rating in Iowa, according to a recent Marist Poll that questioned 1,100 registered voters between October 8 and October 11. Some 44 percent said they approved of the job Trump was doing as president while 53 percent said they disapprove. The survey reports a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points.
Some 44 percent said Trump is not much of a factor in their vote for Congress, a majority of whom approve of his performance, while 35 percent said their congressional ballot is a vote against Trump, compared with 21 percent for him.
Iowan Ron Sitzmann, a 73-year-old semi-retired parts and service director for an automotive company, who was at Trump’s rally, said he still supports the president.
"The only thing is the fuel prices that are hurting him more than anything,” Sitzmann told Reuters, adding that he thinks the issue will go away when the war ends. "I just wish it would happen sooner than later because it’s kind of dragging on," he said.
How Hinson Has Distanced Herself From Trump
The day before Trump’s Iowa rally, Hinson spoke about Trump's deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin – the two have agreed to supply millions of tons of diesel fuel to global markets, saying the arrangement would help lower fuel prices. The announcement, made earlier this week, sparked immediate pushback, including from Republican lawmakers, who argued that the U.S. should not allow Russia to export its oil amid its war with Ukraine.
"I think that's a bad idea. I don’t think we should be making deals with Russia," Hinson said during an interview with NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Llamas, when asked what she would tell the president regarding Russia and Iran. "I do want to see the war come to an end as soon as possible. I want it to be successful."
Last month, when Hinson spoke out against the war in Iran, she said: “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran. We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices.”
She went on to suggest the federal government could respond by pausing diesel exports, suspending gas taxation and creating a relief program for farmers and then called on the House to “return to D.C. immediately to work to pause diesel exports, suspend the gas tax, fully unleash E15 and biodiesel, and work on a diesel relief program for truckers and farmers.”
In August, Hinson also condemned Trump’s decision to pause beef tariffs on certain countries in a bid to reduce meat prices, which she described as a “bad idea.” Iowa has a large ranching industry that feared being undercut.
At the beginning of this month, Hinson’s campaign launched a new TV advert in which a man called Doug, who said he was a lifelong Democratic voter, said he would vote for Hinson and praised her ability to work across party lines.
Turek’s campaign has questioned the authenticity of Hinson’s splits, previously telling Newsweek she was trying to "rewrite her record".
"It’s easy to send a tweet or release a statement, but when the choice came – seven times – Hinson voted to continue the war because she is a multimillionaire who doesn’t care that Iowans are paying more," a Turek campaign spokesperson said.
"Josh Turek has been clear for months that this reckless war that is driving up costs for Iowans needs to end immediately.”
Ashley Hinson Vs. Josh Turek: Latest Polls
Recent polls show a tight race in the state.
- YouGov: A YouGov poll conducted between October 6 and October 12 of 2,245 likely voters gave Turek a narrow lead over Hinson at 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of voters still undecided.
- Marist University: A Marist poll conducted between October 8 and October 11 surveyed 1,100 likely voters, giving Turek a three-point lead over Hinson, at 48 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent still undecided.
- Emerson College: An Emerson poll surveyed 650 likely voters between October 5 and October 6. Hinson led by two points, at 47 percent to Turek's 45 percent, with 7 percent of those surveyed still undecided.
- CNN/SSRS: A CNN/SSRS poll was conducted between September 29 and October 5 and surveyed 801 likely voters. Hinson led by two points at 45 percent to Turek's 43 percent, with 8 percent saying "neither" and 3 percent saying "someone else."
- Suffolk University: A Suffolk poll surveyed 500 likely voters between October 1 and October 4. Turek held a four-point lead, with 48 percent to Hinson's 44 percent and 2 percent of those surveyed said they planned to vote for Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn. Six percent said they didn't know who they would vote for.
Voting is already underway in Iowa, where early in-person and absentee voting began on October 14 ahead of the November 3 election, when polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. statewide.
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