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By Martha McHardy
US News Reporter
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Vice President Kamala Harris has lost her lead in two swing states, according to a poll.
The poll, conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies between October 12 and 14, showed that both Michigan and Nevada are now tied.
Harris had been leading by 1 point in Nevada and 2 points in Michigan in Redfield and Wilton Strategies' last poll, conducted between 27 September and October 2. Harris' lead, in the poll of 9,667 swing state voters, was in the margin of error in both states.
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Meanwhile, Harris has maintained her 1-point lead in Wisconsin, while Trump has widened his leads in Florida, from 4 points to 6 points, and Arizona, from 1 points to 2 points. However, in Georgia and Pennsylvania the former president has lost the 1- and 2-point leads he had held in a previous poll. In North Carolina, Trump has maintained a 2-point lead.
"What this poll shows, is that it's tight. The race is close, and tightening. Anyone who says they know 'for certain' how this is going to play out, well take them to the sportsbook because they're back from the future," Brett Loyd, president and CEO of polling company The Bullfinch Group, told Newsweek.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
It comes amid a positive month for Trump in the polls. A recent Fox News poll, conducted from October 11 to 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, showed Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 2 points, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. This marked a 4-point swing from September, when Harris was ahead by 2 points.
Similarly, an ActiVote poll from early October showed Trump with a 1.2-point lead nationally, a reversal from September when Harris held a 5.4-point advantage.
Trump has also gained ground in key swing states. Harris needs 44 Electoral College votes from toss-up states to win, while Trump needs 51. A combination of wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd District would be enough for Harris to secure the presidency.
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FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows that Harris is on track to achieve this. However, a Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll from October 9 showed the former president leading in each of the seven swing states, and RealClearPolitics recently reported Michigan flipping in Trump's favor for the first time since late July, with Nevada and Pennsylvania following suit.
FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Trump's vote share has grown in Arizona—from 1.1 points at the start of October to 1.6 points now—and in Georgia—from 1.1 to 1.7 points. Meanwhile, Harris has seen slight declines, according to the tracker, in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, Trump's lead has narrowed from 0.7 points to 0.5 points.
Nate Silver's latest forecast shows 19 states have shifted toward Trump in the past week. Despite these shifts, the race remains extremely close.
Silver's forecast now gives Harris a 50.3 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump's 49.4 percent, reflecting a 6-point drop in Harris' odds since late September.
Silver described the race as "razor-thin," saying: "Recent polls show a virtual tie in key Midwestern battlegrounds, making it a true 50/50 contest."
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, while Silver's tracker has her ahead by 2.8 points.
Update 10/18/24, 5:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Brett Loyd, president and CEO of polling company The Bullfinch Group.
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