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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are facing mounting challenges ahead of November's midterm elections, according to three national polls, with Democrats leading on key measures tied to voter sentiment.
Three polls released in recent days showed Democrats holding advantages in congressional voting intentions and, in one survey, overtaking Republicans on the economy as the midterms approach.
Control of Congress will be decided in November and shifts in voter sentiment could shape a number of highly competitive races.
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Republicans defending narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress face growing pressure in battlegrounds where independent voters could determine the outcome.
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Key Points
- A new Reuters/Ipsos survey found Democrats leading Republicans on handling the economy, 37 percent to 36 percent, the first such Democratic advantage in nearly a decade.
- The same survey showed Democrats ahead by 42 percent to 37 percent on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump's approval rating slipped to 35 percent.
- Economist/YouGov’s late July-early August poll found registered voters favoring congressional Democrats by 4 points nationally and by 5 points in swing districts.
- An I&I/TIPP poll released in August found Trump's favorability largely unchanged at 39 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable, with job approval at 38 percent.
Why It Matters
Midterm elections often serve as a referendum on the party that controls the White House.
With Congress narrowly divided, even modest changes in public opinion could have significant consequences for control of the House and Senate.
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Democrats Gain Ground on Economy
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found Democrats holding a narrow edge over Republicans on stewardship of the economy, with 37 percent choosing Democrats and 36 percent choosing Republicans.
The finding is notable because Republicans have generally maintained an advantage on economic issues through much of the past decade. Rising gasoline prices amid the ongoing war with Iran have coincided with a deterioration of the GOP's once-clear lead on the issue, Reuters reported.
The survey also found Trump's job approval falling to 35 percent, down from 37 percent in the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Among registered voters, Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 42 percent to 37 percent. Independents favored Democratic candidates by 12 points.
Reuters/Ipsos surveyed 4,505 U.S. adults nationwide online July 30-August 3. The poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Competitive Districts Show Similar Pattern
New analysis from Economist/YouGov suggested Democratic strength extends beyond heavily blue districts.
Nationally, registered voters favored Democrats over Republicans by 4 percentage points. More importantly for control of the House, voters in the 65 most competitive congressional districts preferred Democrats 45 percent to 40 percent, YouGov said.
The survey also highlighted warning signs for GOP incumbents in battleground districts. In districts represented by Republicans, just 33 percent viewed their representative favorably while 49 percent viewed them unfavorably, a net rating of minus 16.
Independent voters appeared particularly important. In competitive districts represented by Democrats, independents held net positive views of their member of Congress. In comparable Republican-held districts, independents were substantially more negative.
YouGov also found Trump's standing underwater nationally, with 36 percent approving of his job performance and 60 percent disapproving.
The poll was conducted July 31-August 3 among 1,609 U.S. citizens aged 18 and older. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in online panel and weighted to be representative of the adult U.S. citizen population. The survey had an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Trump's Ratings Remain Stuck
An I&I/TIPP poll offered a slightly different picture, showing Trump's support largely stable rather than falling further. The survey found 39 percent of voters held a favorable opinion of Trump, compared with 52 percent who viewed him unfavorably. His job approval stood at 38 percent, while 52 percent disapproved.
Although those figures represented little change from July, the poll showed the president continuing to face significant deficits among independents, who rated him negatively on favorability and job performance.
Respondents gave Trump's strongest policy marks on immigration and border security. His weakest ratings came on inflation and the cost of living, healthcare and the economy.
The newest survey among the three, conducted by I&I/TIPP July 28-August 1, polled 1,463 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
White House Pushes Back
White House spokesman Davis Ingle has repeatedly pointed to what the administration describes as progress on jobs, inflation and housing affordability.
"No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," Ingle said. "The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."
What Happens Next
With fewer than three months until Election Day, both major parties will be focused on persuading a relatively small pool of competitive-district and independent voters.
While national polls do not determine election outcomes, the consistency across multiple surveys suggests Democrats are entering the final stretch of the campaign with momentum on several measures that have historically been important indicators of midterm performance.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and Dave Siminoff.
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