By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in multiple swing states, which could prove vital for the outcome of the 2024 election, according to a poll.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey of 4,962 registered voters in seven swing states showed the presumptive Republican candidate beating the incumbent in Arizona (49-44 percent), Georgia (47-44 percent), North Carolina (49-42 percent), Pennsylvania (48-46 percent) and Wisconsin (47-46 percent).
The poll also found that Trump and Biden are currently tied in Nevada (both 47 percent) with the president ahead by one point in Michigan (46-45 percent).
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The results are the latest sign that Biden may struggle to win reelection to the White House in November, with the candidate he beat in 2020 considered the frontrunner in both national and swing state polls, despite Trump's ongoing legal difficulties.
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As noted by Bloomberg's analysis, Trump narrowly leading two of so-called "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could be severely damaging for Biden if they translate to general election results.
Biden would be on course for victory with enough electoral votes if he retained the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in November, providing the president holds on to multiple Democratic strongholds.
Overall, Trump is beating Biden by 4 percentage points across the seven battleground states
The two campaign teams were contacted for comment via email.
Even the introduction of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, who is considered a potential spoiler for both Trump and Biden's White House hopes, doesn't change the Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state polling too much.
Morning Consult analysis states that when third-party candidates including Kennedy are introduced to the survey, the margins between Trump and Biden "are nearly identical" in all of those states except Nevada, where Trump goes from being tied with Biden to having a five-point lead (44-39 percent), with Kennedy third on 7 percent.
The results in Nevada, where Trump and Biden are tied may also potentially be misleading. The Nevada polling has a margin of error of five points in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, the largest of any of the seven swing states, and differs from other major polling results.
A previous Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll in April showed Trump beating Biden by eight points, with a New York Times/Siena College poll released in May showing Trump ahead in Nevada by 12 points.
The May Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll was conducted on May 7-13 between 4,962 registered voters: 795 in Arizona, 795 in Georgia, 704 in Michigan, 459 in Nevada, 704 in North Carolina, 812 in Pennsylvania and 693 in Wisconsin.
The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 5 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.
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