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By Giulia Carbonaro and Alia Shoaib
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El Niño is officially underway, according to a new update by U.S. scientists, and chances of it intensifying into one of the strongest the country has ever witnessed have soared.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has upgraded the U.S. El Niño status from "watch" to an "advisory" in its monthly release published on Thursday, reporting above-average sea surface temperatures across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past month.
"There is a 63 percent chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," the release reads.
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That is nearly double the odds the agency estimated in May. The three strongest events since then have been in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
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The appearance of El Niño now is within the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) estimates, as the United Nations agency said earlier this month that there was an 80 percent chance that an El Niño event would have developed between June and August, and a 90 percent chance it will last until at least November.
The agency urged all UN countries to bolster early warning systems after confirming the onset of El Niño, stating that the phenomenon will bring above-average temperatures "nearly everywhere" and fuel more extreme weather this year. This is something of a worst-case scenario, but experts are being cautious and preparing for any outcomes.
"Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcome," the NOAA update released on Thursday warned.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a complex weather pattern that breaks normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reversing the natural process known as "upwelling"—when trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America toward Asia and replacing it with cold water rising from the depths. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, toward the western coast of the Americas.
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It is not a new phenomenon. It was first noticed by South American fishermen in the 1600s, but in recent years it has made headlines for its increasingly devastating impact.
El Niño has been observed to fuel extreme weather conditions, increasing the likelihood of droughts in the Northern U.S. and Canada and floods in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast.
How Bad Could ‘Super’ El Niño Be?
The traditional method of identifying the intensity of El Niño involves measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in a key zone of the equatorial Pacific. A strong event is defined as more than 1.5C or 34.7F above average temperatures; a very strong one above 2C or 35.6F.
Warnings of a "super" El Niño this year come after scientists around the world rang alarm bells over warming global temperatures for years, if not decades. Studies have found that higher temperatures are amplifying the Pacific Ocean-warming phenomenon, exacerbating natural disasters.
While the intensity of this year’s El Niño is still unclear, most experts are expecting a strong one.
NOAA projects that tropical Pacific waters may warm by 2.4C or 36.32F by November, pumping heat and moisture into the atmosphere and likely bringing about heavy rains and potential flooding to the United States.
Most likely, a "super" El Niño would bring another year of record-breaking temperatures, though possibly in 2027 rather than 2026. A very strong El Niño could lift global air temperatures by around 0.2C or 32.36F, as reported by the BBC.
Does El Niño Mean More Rain?
El Niño doesn’t mean it will be wetter everywhere, but it does change where rain and storms are most likely.
According to the NOAA, stormier weather is more likely in the Southern U.S., with an increased chance of both rain and snow during El Niño winters.
Conversely, drier conditions are expected over the Northern Rockies and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
How Long Does El Niño Last?
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle called the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which shifts between three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
During El Niño, ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average. The opposite phase, La Niña, happens when those same waters become cooler than average.
Each El Niño or La Niña episode typically lasts about nine to 12 months, although some can last longer, occasionally lasting for years.
The cycle itself doesn’t run on a regular schedule, with El Niño and La Niña occurring irregularly, on average every two to seven years.
Which States Will Be Affected?
Experts note that every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique, but studying past events helps scientists identify recurring regional patterns.
NOAA maps of three-month average temperature and precipitation anomalies from November through April since 1950 show consistent trends that emerge across El Niño episodes.
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During strong El Niño events, like this one is forecast to be, above-average temperatures often develop across a broad area of the Northern U.S., stretching from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
The states most likely to see the greatest above-average temperatures are Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
These conditions typically peak between December and February before gradually easing into early spring.
Meanwhile, colder-than-average temperatures are expected across a large swathe of the Southern U.S., extending from Arizona and New Mexico through Texas and the Gulf Coast into Florida and the southeast. These conditions peak between January and March.
Wetter-than-average conditions tend to affect southern states, especially California, the Gulf Coast, the Southeast, and Florida, while drier conditions are more likely in parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and parts of the Pacific Northwest.
Update, 06/12/26, 05:59 a.m. ET: this article was updated with three new subheads at the bottom, a map, and an updated headline.
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