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By Anna Skinner
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A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is shaping up to deliver a polarized winter across the country, with nine states projected to see above-average snowfall while others face unseasonably warm and dry conditions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center expects the weather phenomenon to range from strong to very strong through March 2027, significantly altering traditional winter patterns. Meteorologists note that the ongoing atmospheric shift will likely push the jet stream southward and eastward, increasing storm activity across the southern tier of the country.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Director Ken Graham said in a winter outlook published on October 15. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”
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Federal officials caution that heavy rainfall on parched terrain carries a heightened risk of flash floods and mudslides ahead of the official start of winter on December 21.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It occurs between every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months, although a particularly strong El Niño can last longer. It is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and weakened trade winds, which can influence weather around the globe in different ways.
This year's El Niño has already broken records in terms of how far above average the ocean surface temperatures have risen. A stronger El Niño can be associated with stronger storms.
What Is La Niña?
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. It is characterized by stronger trade winds and unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Why Can El Niño Impact Winter Weather?
In the United States, El Niño's influence is typically strongest during the fall and winter months. Historically, stronger El Niño events have favored a more active storm track across the southern tier of the country while bringing warmer-than-average temperatures to parts of the northern U.S. As a result, some states that normally see significant winter snowfall can experience reduced totals when warmer air dominates.
At the same time, the shift in storm patterns can boost snowfall in other regions by delivering both the moisture and cold air needed for snow, allowing some states that saw relatively little snowfall the previous winter to experience snowier-than-average conditions.
Which States Could See More Snow This Winter?
The states that could see more snow this winter are ones that didn't see much snow last winter, according to a report by AccuWeather published earlier this month. While the North, Midwest, and Northeast are expecting below-average snowfall this winter, the Intermountain West, Southwest, and Central U.S. could see above-average totals.
When compared to last year, the states most likely to see more snow than they did in 2025 are Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and California, AccuWeather senior meteorologist and long-range forecaster Chad Merrill told Newsweek on Monday, crediting "the strong footprint of El Niño" for the forecast.
The forecast marks a stark contrast from last winter, particularly across the Intermountain West, where a snow drought hampered ski seasons and heightened drought concerns. With less snowpack available to melt in the spring and summer, rivers, reservoirs and other water supplies received less runoff than usual.
“We’d like to get more snow there,” The Weather Channel's on-camera meteorologist Mike Bettes told Newsweek on Monday. “The Colorado River basin had an awful season last year. Salt Lake City had paltry amounts of snow last year, so they’d like to make up there if they could.”
The climate pattern will bring a "strong subtropical jet stream into southern California, and another storm track that goes up into the Central Plains." There will be plenty of moisture compared to last year for those areas, Merrill said, which is expected to fall as snow, especially for higher elevations.
A strong El Niño also can influence wetter patterns across the South and Bettes said it’s not completely out of the question that cold air intrusions could lead to snow and ice storms in states in the Tennessee Valley. Such an event happened during an El Niño year in 2023, when Memphis and Nashville saw “big snow” and a snow/sleet mixture hammered Louisiana, Bettes said.
“Something similar could happen for us again this year,” Bettes told Newsweek.
How Has El Niño Impacted Snow Historically?
This year's forecast is in line with how El Niño historically influences snowfall across the U.S., according to NOAA data.
El Niño's impact on snowfall varies widely across the country. NOAA data on snowfall departures from average show that during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters, parts of California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey have historically recorded snowfall totals more than 10 inches above normal between January and March.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Great Lakes region, and Northeast can see lower snowfall totals, as much as 10 inches below average.
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When Could El Niño Weather Effects Hit California?
A storm associated with El Niño could arrive in California as early as this weekend, Merrill told Newsweek. The storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Southern California, as well as some high elevation snow across the region. It is the "first storm in a series" expected to move across the U.S. West because of El Niño's footprint, Merrill said.
When looking ahead to how long the stormy winter could last, Merrill said the season will "probably have a pretty long tail," with storms persisting into March and April before quieting down.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Kate Nalepinski.
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