...
By Joe Edwards
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump's respective campaigns will be courting a range of key voter groups that could be decisive in the final tally.
While much attention has been given to large voting blocs, often overlooked groups could have a substantial impact too.
Polish Americans, rural African Americans, and Latino evangelicals—groups often with distinct concerns and voting patterns—could tip the balance in closely contested battleground states.
Read More on News
...
Polish Americans
Polish Americans represent approximately three percent of the U.S. population, numbering around 9 million, with significant concentrations in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin alone, Polish Americans account for more than eight percent of the population, a crucial margin in a state that President Joe Biden won by just under 21,000 votes in 2020, and Trump won in 2016.
Polish Americans have historically varied in their political affiliations, swinging between parties based on specific concerns. In the 1980s, many supported President Ronald Reagan due to his staunch opposition to communism.
But data suggests that in recent years, Polish American voters have largely supported Democratic candidates.
A survey conducted by the Piast Institute research group found that about half of Polish Americans identified as Democrats, compared to 39 percent who identified as Republicans.
"As a group, Polish Americans have been in the country in sizeable numbers for a century or more, so their ethnic identity has diluted over time," Professor Emeritus Iwan Morgan at University College London told Newsweek.
"They are habitually anti-Russian, however, so they supported Cold War toughness by the U.S. and now assistance for Ukraine against Putin.
"They may make the difference between Harris winning and losing Michigan in particular and possibly Wisconsin, so [the Democratic Party is] targeting them in these two swing states."
Morgan said: "Polish Americans loved Ronald Reagan because he took a tough line against the military crackdown by the pro-Soviet client government in the 1980s. They are more ambivalent about Trump who tends to say little in these states about what he would do regarding Ukraine were he reelected—other than to claim that he would bring peace soon after taking office but without specifying how."
Rural African Americans
African Americans are a significant voting bloc in states like Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina, and rural Black voters are no exception.
Black voters played a critical role in helping deliver Georgia to Biden in 2020, flipping a state won by Trump in 2016, and their turnout could be crucial again in 2024.
While a recent ActiVote poll found Trump was leading with rural voters generally, in 2020, 92 percent of Black voters supported Biden.
However, like many other groups, rural Black communities face distinct challenges. Economic issues, including access to healthcare and education, remain top concerns. Voting access is another pressing issue following efforts by state legislatures to introduce stricter voting laws.
Morgan described the demographic as "critical to Harris's hopes in Georgia and North Carolina."
"She is unlikely to win these just on the big-city vote. Democrats have not done enough to generate rural support in recent elections.
"But there is now a big organizing drive to get out non-urban African Americans, who represent the Democrats' best chance to win rural votes.
"It is not so much a question of dissuading them from voting Republican but mobilizing them to vote as they have been a Democratic constituency since the Voting Rights Act of 1965."
Latino Evangelicals
Latinos as a whole make up a sizeable portion of the U.S. population: 19 percent according to Pew Research Center, with 15 percent identifying as evangelical.
This growing political force tends to be more conservative on social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference (NHCLC), told Newsweek that although Latino evangelicals are "not beholden to any political party's agenda," key issues for the group include economic growth, the reduction of "unnecessary regulation," a "comprehensive and compassionate approach" to immigration "that prioritizes both security and humanity," parental rights, and religious liberty and freedom of expression.
Katie Gaddini, associate professor in sociology at University College London, U.K., told Newsweek: "Latino evangelicals have become an increasingly important voting bloc, especially as their numbers are growing across the country, and more and more Latin Americans are leaving Catholicism and converting to evangelicalism."
"Research shows that they tend to vote Republican, as their views on immigration line up with the current party platform," Gaddini said.
Polls show Trump has made significant inroads with the 36.2 million eligible Latino voters overall, the second-largest group of eligible voters after white voters.
A national NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll conducted from September 16 and 23 found that 54 percent of registered Latino voters support Harris compared to 40 percent for Trump.
This is a double-digit improvement from Trump's Latino support during his first presidential run. In 2016, only 19 percent of Latinos said they'd vote for Trump, according to NBC News polling data from that election cycle. Trump's current numbers among Latinos are also better than during his 2020 campaign, in which he had 27 percent Latino support, NBC News' data suggests.
"The Republican Party has made a concerted effort over the past eight years to court the Latino vote. Similarly, grassroots conservative groups have reached out to Latino evangelicals to build political alliances," said Gaddini.
"All this means that Latino evangelicals will be highly consequential in this election and will likely show strong support for Trump."
In potentially pivotal states like Arizona and Florida, where Latino voters make up a substantial portion of the electorate, Latino evangelicals could contribute noticeably to the outcome.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Do you have a story we should be covering? Do you have any questions about this article or the 2024 presidential election? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines