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By Amanda Castro
Associate News Editor
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A powerful storm system is bringing severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and flooding threats to parts of the United States just hours before voters head to the polls in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The timing puts potentially disruptive weather over parts of the central U.S. as Americans decide control of Congress and hundreds of state and local races. Voters from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley face the greatest threat from storms and heavy rain, while flooding remains a concern in Florida and New Mexico.
National Weather Service alerts on Monday included severe thunderstorm warnings in Texas and Oklahoma, tornado watches covering counties in Kansas and Oklahoma, and flood warnings affecting Florida and New Mexico. The alerts are localized and do not mean that every resident or polling location in those states is under a warning.
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The broader Election Day forecast puts additional areas at risk. The Storm Prediction Center expects thunderstorms Tuesday from the Sabine and lower Mississippi valleys north into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, with some storms capable of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.
Heavy rain poses a separate threat. Forecasters expect areas of the Plains and Midwest to receive substantial rainfall, with flash flooding possible where storms repeatedly pass over the same locations. Parts of Florida, meanwhile, entered the eve of Election Day already dealing with flooding after torrential rainfall along the state’s east-central coast.
Severe Storm Warning Issued for States on Election Day
In Florida, the National Weather Service said flooding was already occurring Monday in parts of Indian River, Martin and St. Lucie counties after 6 to 12 inches of rain, with another 2 to 4 inches possible in the warned area.
In New Mexico, a flood warning for part of Rio Arriba County was extended until 6 a.m. MST Tuesday, with authorities reporting road closures around Chama because of flooding.
The Election Day threat then shifts farther east. The Storm Prediction Center expects parts of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley to face thunderstorms Tuesday, including the possibility of damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall could also produce localized flash flooding, particularly where storms repeatedly move across the same areas.
Conditions are expected to be considerably quieter elsewhere. The Northeast and mid-Atlantic are forecast to remain largely dry and mild under high pressure, while conditions will vary across the West.
When Do Polls Open?
States set polling hours, and they can vary within a state, so there is no single nationwide opening time. Among states in or near the storm-affected area, Illinois opens its polls at 6 a.m.; Florida, Iowa and Kansas generally open at 7 a.m.; and Arkansas opens at 7:30 a.m., all in local time. Polling hours can vary because of local rules and time zones.
That timing could make Tuesday’s storm's progression important. Voters planning to cast ballots in person should check their state or local election authority for their exact polling location and hours, especially since some states allow local variation. Kansas, for example, generally operates from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Central Time, unless a county sets different hours.
All 435 House seats are on the ballot Tuesday, along with 35 Senate contests. Thirty-six states also have gubernatorial elections, while state and local races are being decided across the country.
Does Poor Weather Affect Election Day Results?
Research suggests that poor weather can suppress voter turnout, although the effect is generally modest. Researchers Søren Damsbo-Svendsen and Kasper M. Hansen, in a 2023 study that reviewed 34 previous studies on rainfall and voting, found that local rainfall reduced the probability of voting. Their analysis estimated that each additional inch of rain was associated with an average turnout decline of roughly 1 to 2 percentage points.
Earlier research by Brad Gomez, Thomas Hansford and George Krause examined U.S. presidential elections between 1948 and 2000. The study found that an additional inch of rain was associated with a turnout decline of slightly less than 1 percentage point, while an inch of snow was associated with a decline of about half a percentage point.
The findings do not mean bad weather will determine Tuesday’s midterm results. Rather, the research suggests precipitation can create an additional barrier to voting, while the magnitude of that effect varies. Changes in how Americans vote, including greater use of early and mail voting, also make it difficult to apply historical turnout effects directly to the 2026 election.
For Tuesday, the more immediate issue is whether severe conditions make it harder for some voters to reach polling places. Heavy rain, flash flooding, damaging winds and tornado threats could disrupt travel in affected communities, while much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic is expected to see comparatively quiet weather.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Emma Lee-Sang
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