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By Megan Cartwright
Associate News Editor
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Actor Jack Lowden has surged to the top of Polymarket’s next James Bond market, reaching 49 percent week, after Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman suggested the role has already been cast.
The move signals that prediction-market traders increasingly see Lowden as the front-runner ahead of a potential announcement by the end of the year.
Newsweek reached out to Lowden’s representatives via email for comment on Tuesday.
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Why It Matters
The James Bond franchise is entering a new chapter under Amazon MGM Studios, turning the question of who will inherit the tuxedo into a spectacle of its own. Now, a cryptic comment from one of the franchise’s most recognizable insiders has sent prediction markets moving—decisively in Lowden’s direction.
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Co-Star Lights the Fuse
The latest spark came from Oldman, who said that a decision had already been made behind closed doors.
“They have picked him. They have made their choice, but they have not announced it yet,” the Golden Globe award winner told Deadline in an article published on September 7.
The comment quickly ricocheted across social media. X user @advitwake captured the prevailing theory in a post with 469,000 views and 3,100 likes: “i think the Slow Horses cast knows something we don't.”
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Lowden’s role in Slow Horses, where he stars alongside Oldman in the Apple TV+ spy drama, gives the suggestion an added layer of intrigue.
The speculation also drew concern that Oldman’s comments—or the attention surrounding them—could complicate the casting process.
“Crazy thing to post before the official announcement,” one commenter wrote on X.
A second called the post “dumb,” arguing that such “nudge-wink stuff” could potentially hurt Lowden’s chances.
A third user noted another intriguing connection: Nina Gold serves as casting director on both Slow Horses and the Bond film.
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Numbers Behind the Buzz
On Polymarket, Lowden now leads the field at 49 percent, with roughly $132,000 in trading volume tied to his outcome.
The “No Bond chosen” outcome sits second at about 16 percent, reflecting continued uncertainty over whether an actor will be officially named before the market’s deadline.
Jack Barton ranks third at nearly 12 percent, an unexpected showing for the relative newcomer known for Heartstopper and Rogue Heroes. Callum Turner follows at roughly 6 percent, while Richard Madden, Jonathan Bailey and Harris Dickinson sit in the low single digits.
The market has generated more than $725,000 in total volume since opening on May 18 and is scheduled to resolve by the end of the year.
Kalshi’s market is also now heavily tilted toward Lowden. The exchange gives him a 63 percent chance of being cast, up 32 percentage points, with Jack Barton at 20 percent and Callum Turner at 14 percent. Kalshi’s Bond market has generated about $2.08 million in total volume.
The gap between Lowden and the rest of the field on Kalshi is notable: His 63 percent market-implied chance is more than three times Barton’s 20 percent and more than four times Turner’s 14 percent.
Why Lowden?
Lowden’s case is built partly on his spy-thriller credentials in Slow Horses and partly on the type of actor the franchise appears to be seeking: a younger British performer who could carry a new Bond era across multiple films.
That profile has made Lowden an increasingly natural fit in the betting market. Reports tying the casting process to Amazon MGM Studios and director Denis Villeneuve have only reinforced the perception that the search is narrowing.
Barton’s strong showing, meanwhile, suggests traders are still leaving room for an unexpected newcomer. Turner and Dickinson remain in contention thanks to their franchise-ready profiles and rising critical reputations.
How the Market Resolves
Polymarket will pay out based on the first official announcement naming the next 007 by 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2026, with Amazon MGM Studios listed as the primary resolution source.
If no actor is officially named by then, the “No Bond chosen” outcome wins.
Kalshi’s market uses a longer resolution window: Its current Bond contract can remain open until January 1, 2030, although it can resolve earlier if the casting outcome occurs.
Those deadlines help explain why traders continue to put meaningful money behind both Lowden and the no-announcement outcome. Screen tests and casting speculation may be reaching the final stretch, but until Amazon MGM makes it official, the Bond market remains just that: a market.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and Dave Siminoff.
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