Euro 2024 Golden Boot odds: Cody Gakpo favored entering quarterfinals

Golden Boot

...

Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.

Through group play and the round of 16, it would be an understatement to call the race for the Golden Boot (top scorer) award at Euro 2024 "wide-open."

As of July 5, 12 players have scored either two or three goals in this tournament, but three of them (Georges Mikautadze, Ivan Schranz and Razvan Marin) represent squads that have already been eliminated.

Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) and Jamal Musiala (Germany) are the only players who have scored three goals and have a chance to add to those totals.

Euro 2024 Golden Boot Odds (as of July 5)

Euro 2024 Golden Boot Analysis

At this stage of the competition, it's not easy to suss out who offers value in the Golden Boot market given that two teams will end up playing three more games before this award is decided, while four will be sent packing by the time the quarterfinals conclude on Saturday.

Below are a few reasons to both like and dislike/second-guess the top betting favorites for this award (as of July 5).

Cody Gakpo Euro 2024 Golden Boot Odds

Best odds: +450 (DraftKings)

Pros: In addition to being tied with Musiala with the most goals through four games, Gakpo is among the tournament leaders in shots on target, with seven, on just 11 shots. His shots on target percentage (63.6%) speaks to the quality of looks he's getting.

At this point, the biggest question is whether the Netherlands (currently the fifth-favorite) can stay in this tournament long enough for Gakpo to bring home the Golden Boot.

Cons: Even if we assume Gakpo's Dutch side will get by Turkey in the quarterfinals (and we probably shouldn't -- just ask Austria), the Netherlands would face a tough task against either France or Portugal in the semifinals. The fact that oddsmakers don't see the Dutch as much of a threat to win this tournament is the biggest reason to fade the 25-year-old.

Jamal Musiala Euro 2024 Golden Boot Odds

Best odds: +600 (FanDuel, ESPN BET, bet365)

Pros: Musiala, at just 21 years old, has been considered one of the top young players in the world for years, and he's shown why throughout Euro 2024.

With goals in three of the four games his team has played, Musiala has been one of the top threats for the high-flying Germans, who have scored a Euro-leading eight goals.

Cons: It's tough to trust a player who is one of several viable options for his team, and that absolutely applies to Musiala. Kai Havertz has taken more shots (13 to 7) and also has the edge in shots on target (7 to 4). This is a good problem for Germany (obviously), but it doesn't bode well for Musiala winning the Golden Boot.

Kylian Mbappe Euro 2024 Golden Boot Odds

Best odds: +1200 (DraftKings, bet365)

Pros: The 25-year-old French star is the best bet of any player in Euro 2024 to go off for multiple goals at any moment, but he's scored just once in the three matches he's played in so far.

Multiple underlying metrics, including his total xG (2.5) to date, indicate he's due to rediscover his scoring touch soon. Also: It's never a bad idea to trust the player who won the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup (eight goals scored) and finished tied for second in 2018 (four goals), especially at odds this long.

Cons: Mbappe suffered a broken nose in France's Euro 2024 opener against Austria, and while he's only missed one match, he didn't look totally comfortable against either Poland or Belgium.

Given that he's currently two goals behind Gakpo and Musiala, and the fact that France have a tough quarterfinal match against Portugal (which could set up a semifinal against a Netherlands side that played France to a 0-0 draw in group play), it's understandable that Mbappe is longer than 10-to-1.

Harry Kane Euro 2024 Golden Boot Odds

Best odds: +650 (ESPN BET, bet365)

Pros: Outside of Mbappe, no one at Euro 2024 is a more proven commodity when it comes to scoring goals. Kane is as safe a bet as anyone to take advantage of his opportunities; he just needs a side that has looked disjointed to do a better job creating them.

His lengthy track record for England, Tottenham and Bayern Munich makes him tempting as long as you trust the Three Lions to remain alive in this tournament for a few more matches.

Cons: It hasn't necessarily been his fault, but Kane plays on the most disappointing front line in Euro 2024. Between Kane, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden, to name a few, England should -- at minimum -- be enjoying plenty of scoring opportunities, if not converting them. Instead, England have been much more cohesive defending than going forward.

Kai Havertz Euro 2024 Golden Boot Odds

Best odds: +1200 (FanDuel)

Pros: Havertz is the most intriguing option based on his stats. He's just one goal behind leaders Gakpo and Musiala, but that doesn't do justice to his performance to date. He's also third in Euro 2024 in shots taken (13) and third in shots on target (7) while comfortably boasting the highest xG (3.6).

Any one of those numbers alone would justify at least a flier on Havertz, but they combine to make a strong case for Havertz winning the Euro 2024 Golden Boot.

Cons: As Arsenal and Chelsea fans can attest, Havertz's finishing touch has been known to abandon him without warning. Additionally, his battle with Musiala for opportunities is reason to consider looking elsewhere.

Lastly, while Germany have looked capable of a deep run, they face an imposing Spanish side in the quarterfinals. If Germany win on Friday, they'd either be the underdogs against England in the semifinals or face a dangerous Swiss side that shut out Italy 2-0 in the round of 16.

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.

View 0 Comments

Request Reprint & Licensing

Submit Correction

View Editorial & AI Guidelines

Read More on Betting