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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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FanDuel makes Tuesdays exciting via a promotion called "Dinger Tuesday," which promotes the most fun thing to do when wagering on MLB: Betting on dingers.
Here's how the promo works: You receive a $5 bonus bet (up to $25) for every home run hit in the game featuring the player you're backing to hit a home run.
For example, one of my favorite picks today is Juan Soto in the Yankees-Phillies game. If there are four home runs hit in that game -- regardless of who hits them -- you would receive $20 in bonus bets in your FanDuel account. The max you can get per game is $25, but you can bet on as many games as you'd like.
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It's a fun promo, so let's get right into the best ways to attack it on Tuesday, July 30.
Play 1: Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+290) FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
We went with Soto yesterday and he did not come through for us, but he had an incredible game overall, so it feels like the correct thing to do to go right back to him to mash one today. Despite not hitting a home run yesterday, he had five bases total, with two doubles and a single. He also had three HardHits, with an average exit velocity over 100MPH. More often than not, when he has a game like that it ends with a home run, and he has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since MLB returned from the All-Star break.
He has a total of 22 HardHits, which is the second-most in the league since July 19, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who each have 23. Despite "only" hitting four home runs in this 11-day stretch, he has an ISO rate of .500, which is the fourth-best in MLB in the same time period. The three players above him have hit six, seven and seven home runs, but Soto is still closely behind them in ISO rate due to having hit six doubles.
As for tonight, he is going up against Aaron Nola of the Phillies, whose biggest issue is allowing home runs, and Soto has been phenomenal against him in the past. These two have 11 at-bats against each other over the past three years, and Soto is batting .455 with five hits, one home run and one double, with only one strikeout against Nola. Soto should be able to get to him once again today.
Play 2: Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+350) FanDuel
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Devers has not hit a home run since MLB returned from the All-Star break on July 19, but he has actually been hitting the ball well, so the guess here is that the home runs are going to start to come. He is batting .316, with a .500 slugging and a .886 OPS in this stretch, with excellent Statcast numbers as well. His average exit velocity is 95.4MPH and his HardHit rate is 62.1%, which would be the third-best average exit velocity and the best HardHit rate in MLB if extrapolated out.
The good news is that Devers has enough history of success to trust that with these types of numbers, he is going to go on a home run binge, hopefully soon. On the year, he has the third-best ISO rate in MLB, only behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, which is pretty good company. He also has the eighth-best HardHit rate, the 17th-best barrel rate and the sixth-fastest average exit velocity on the entire season.
As for the pitching matchup, he is going up against Luis Castillo of the Mariners, a pitcher who struggles immensely against left-handed hitters such as Devers. Castillo has seen 31 fewer at-bats against LHH, but has allowed 10 of his 15 home runs against lefties. His HR/9 against LHH is 1.59 (which would be sixth-worst in MLB) and only 0.61 against RHH. All of his stats across the board are significantly worse against lefties, with his fly-ball rate going from 36% to 44.2%, and his HardHit rate going from 26.5% to 35.3%. He predominantly throws 4-seam fastballs (43.8% of the time) and sliders (23.4% of the time), which Devers crushes. Devers has an ISO rate of .400 against 4-seamers and .347 against sliders.
Play 3: Tyler Fitzgerald to Hit a Home Run (+600) FanDuel
Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET
Fitzgerald being priced at +600 at FanDuel is great value when you consider how hot he has been at the plate. Since MLB returned from the All-Star break, he has hit seven home runs, which is tied with Vlad for the most in the MLB. He has absolutely crushed the ball with a barrel rate of 25.9% in that stretch, the sixth-best in MLB since July 19. He has only played in 45 games and has 128 plate appearances, so it's a small sample size, but when he has played this year, he has been awesome.
On the year, Fitzgerald has hit nine total home runs, and eight of nine have come since July 9. He has moved from the eight or nine spot in the batting order all the way up to third, and he has rewarded the Giants with stellar hitting. While he obviously will not be able to maintain this obscene pace, he has a great opportunity to at least keep it going today with the matchup he has.
He is going up against JP Sears for the Athletics, who is definitely a pitcher you want to target for allowing home runs. He allows a barrel rate of 10.4% (fifth-worst in MLB), 40.3% HardHit rate (19th-worst in MLB), 89.7MPH average exit velocity (15th-worst) and 17.2 degree launch angle (14th-worst). The launch angle is the real kicker here, because that is a death sentence when combined with allowing HardHits. Sears' most common pitch thrown is a slider, and Fitzgerald has a .571 ISO rate against that pitch. Let's hope he stays hot tonight.
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