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By Flynn Nicholls
US News Reporter
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Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll before Election Day, with a three-point lead over the vice president.
The poll, released Thursday, showed Trump with 49 percent support among likely voters, while Harris had 46 percent, marking a four-point swing since last month, when Harris led by one point.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, recorded a shift toward Trump among independents and undecideds.
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Both candidates have solidified their bases, but Trump has fared better with last-minute gains from undecided voters, the poll suggested.
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"The movement under the surface suggests Trump is having a better closing moment," said James Johnson, cofounder of J.L. Partners. Johnson added that independents and third-party voters had trended toward Trump in recent weeks, giving him a late boost in the race.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Harris and Trump via email for comment.
The poll came as some national forecasters echoed a similar shift. Aggregators such as RealClearPolitics have recently placed Trump slightly ahead of Harris, with a lead of just 0.4 points. Meanwhile, polling averages from FiveThirtyEight showed Harris holding a narrow 1.4-point lead, but with a declining trend over recent weeks.
With just five days remaining, the election's outcome is likely to hinge on seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—where polling shows the candidates are locked in neck-and-neck races or holding slim margins.
But according to the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners poll, Trump's gains among independent voters and slight national polling edge might give him a path to 270 electoral votes if he manages to secure battleground states.
The poll also highlighted a clear gender divide in voter preferences.
"One thing makes this election stand out from others: When voters go to the polls next week, they will be sharply divided on their gender," Johnson said. Harris had the support of 54 percent of women, compared to Trump's 40 percent, while men supported Trump by a margin of 59 percent to Harris' 37 percent.
The data also showed a significant enthusiasm gap in favor of Trump. According to the poll, 74 percent of Trump's supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting for him, compared to 67 percent for Harris.
The swing reflects a sharp contrast from just two months ago when Harris surged in polls following President Joe Biden's decision not to seek reelection, which initially buoyed her campaign and fundraising efforts.
As the campaigning progressed, however, Trump's strategy of appealing to rural voters proved effective. This poll found he had a 43-point lead in rural regions, although Harris held a slight two-point advantage in suburban areas.
Despite Trump's gain in this J.L. Partners poll, broader trends still show the race is effectively a coin toss.
Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin recently characterized the race as a true "50-50 toss-up," indicating that close polling in swing states could result in unpredictable outcomes. Silver added that "you should remain open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong" in either candidate's favor.
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