10
Loading video...
By Jesus Mesa
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Being the most popular governor in the United States may not be enough to save Vermont’s Phil Scott from an historic upset, according to a new poll.
A new University of New Hampshire (UNH) Green Mountain State Poll, released Sunday, found Democrat Amanda Janoo leading the Republican incumbent 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate. Independent Brian Judd had 4 percent.
“Republican Governor Phil Scott has comfortably won re-election in recent years, but he trails Democrat Amanda Janoo in the final days of the 2026 campaign,” the poll’s press release said.
Read More on Politics
UNH is the only pollster that has shown Janoo ahead in the general election, and the most recent competing survey, from State Navigate, had Scott up 3 points last week (49 percent to 46 percent).
“We started this campaign with a goal of building a movement of Vermonters who love this state,” Janoo said in a statement to Newsweek reacting to the poll. “Vermonters who may not share the same backgrounds or lived experiences, but who believe we can do more for each other and for our state than sit on the sidelines when things get hard.”
Newsweek reached out to Scott's campaign for comment.
America's Most Popular Governor
In Morning Consult's most recent state rankings, based on surveys of registered voters from April 1 through June 30, Scott had a net approval rating of +52, the highest of any governor. North Dakota Governor Kelly Armstrong followed at +50 and Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon at +49.
A Morning Consult ranking released in February put his approval at 74 percent, with 19 percent disapproving, and listed him as the most popular governor for the 14th consecutive quarter.
Vermont Public found his approval at 45 percent this fall, down 15 points from 2022. UNH had him at 47 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving in September. State Navigate's poll showed that Scott had 58 percent approval.
Scott has said this is his toughest race since he first won in 2016, and he has pinned much of that on Democratic enthusiasm.
Scott vs. Janoo, How the Race Has Shifted
Scott’s number has barely changed in UNH’s polling this year. He had 42 percent in June, 44 percent in July and 43 percent in both September and October.
Janoo, however, has climbed over the same period, going from 27 percent to 33 percent, then 49 percent and now 51 percent, the first UNH figure to count leaners.
The partisan breakdown shows why. Janoo wins 78 percent of Democrats, up from 73 percent in September, while 20 percent stick with Scott. Scott holds 85 percent of Republicans, with 10 percent going to Judd, and carries independents 51 percent to 39 percent. He wins 25 percent of former Vice President Kamala Harris voters, while 38 percent of Janoo's supporters say they voted for Scott in 2024.
The poll also found that Janoo, a 39-year-old economist who has never held office, was viewed favorably by 54 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 29 percent. Scott’s numbers were 42 percent and 40 percent.
Sean McKinley, the UNH Survey Center’s project director, told Newsweek in September that Scott had “a bit of a hill to climb.”
Democratic leaders had originally hoped for a more established candidate. The party tried to recruit Attorney General Charity Clark, Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas and Treasurer Mike Pieciak to take on Scott, but all three decided to seek reelection to their current offices.
...
What Vermont Voters Are Worried About
Money tops the list. Asked to name their most important issue, likely voters in the UNH poll most often cited affordability or inflation, at 17 percent, followed by economic health or financial security and the tax burden or public spending, at 10 percent each.
The candidates have split sharply on how to deal with them. Janoo has proposed higher taxes on top earners and universal primary care, a plan Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent, backed at a Winooski event last month. Scott argues the state has too few wealthy residents to carry that load. "One person makes a billion dollars, and when that's gone, that's gone," he said at an October 21 debate.
Education is another dividing line, with Janoo opposing the forced school mergers she says Scott's overhaul would bring. AI data centers have also surfaced as Scott vetoed a bill regulating them in May, while Janoo supports a moratorium.
Scott vs. Janoo, What Other Polls Say
The State Navigate survey of 1,752 likely voters, conducted October 23-25, had Scott ahead 49 percent to 46 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Its early October poll showed him up 46 percent to 43 percent.
State Navigate also found Scott keeping 66 percent of his 2024 voters while 30 percent moved to Janoo. He won 25 percent of Democrats, a bigger share than UNH found, and his job approval stood at 58 percent, with 40 percent disapproving.
A Vermont Public poll conducted September 10-21 gave Scott his widest lead, 44 percent to 34 percent among likely voters, with 16 percent undecided.
Scott's campaign has fought the UNH numbers since September, when campaign manager Dustin Degree called that month's poll "statistical malpractice" and pointed to a sample with far more Democrats than Republicans. The center's final 2024 poll had Scott winning 65 percent to 26 percent. He won 73.4 percent to 21.8 percent. Andrew Smith, the center's director, defended its methods at the time while acknowledging it had underestimated Scott's margin.
UNH says its data were weighted in part to 2024 election results, and its October sample was 60 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 11 percent independents.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" last month. Sabato's Crystal Ball and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin have it at "Lean Republican."
Polymarket and Kalshi both gave Scott about a 68 percent chance of winning on Monday.
National Environment
Republicans face a difficult final week nationally ahead of the midterms. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters had Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 53 percent to 44 percent, while an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll had them up 52 percent to 44 percent, with Trump's approval at 40 percent and his disapproval at 59 percent.
Trump is far weaker in Vermont, where UNH put him at 20 percent approval and 77 percent disapproval. Democrats there are also more engaged, with 69 percent saying they are extremely interested in the election, compared with 59 percent of Republicans. Scott has opposed the White House on tariffs and National Guard deployments, among other issues.
Nearly 140,000 Vermonters had turned in ballots by Friday morning, according to the Vermont Secretary of State's Office.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Jason Lemon.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines