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By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
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Unsold inventory is piling up in the Orlando housing market, according to the latest data, as for-sale homes there face little interest from potential buyers disheartened by rising prices and stubbornly high mortgage rates.
"Supply is spiking. And demand is not rebounding," real-estate analyst Nick Gerli wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday. "Could this market be on the verge of another 2008-style downturn?"
Why It Matters
Orlando was among the many cities in Florida which saw a boom during the pandemic years, when an influx of out-of-state people moved to the Sunshine State in search of sunny weather, affordable housing and lower taxes.
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These newcomers brought up demand at a time when the state was struggling with a lack of inventory, which in turn drove home prices up—leading to a boom that some fear is now approaching a bust.
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Supply is now growing all across Florida as a result of years of new homes construction and mortgage rates stabilizing—though at a historically high rate—which has convinced homeowners holding on to cheaper monthly payments that it is not worth waiting any longer. But buyers, burdened by rising housing costs, are not showing up for the properties sellers are putting on the market.
What To Know
"What's going on in Orlando, Florida?" Gerli, founder of Reventure App, asked on X on Monday, reporting data showing that for-sale inventory in the city has been steadily on the rise since 2022, and has now reached a peak of more than 13,000 homes.
"There are now over 13,000 houses on the market for sale. Sixty-six percent above the long-term norms for spring," he said. "Orlando's current inventory trends suggest major concern about the future direction of the market. As inventory is now at the highest level since the last crash."
The growth in inventory in Orlando has been months in the making.
In February, according to the latest monthly data available, inventory in Orlando was up 44.5 percent year-over-year, from 8,589 in February 2024 to 12,411 in February 2025, and up 6.1 percent from a month earlier, when it was 11,697, according to the Orlando Regional Realtors Association (ORRA).
The number of total closed sales in the same month, at 1,837, was down 15.5 percent compared to February 2024, but up 21.3 percent from January. The average price was $486,064, up 8.4 percent from 2024, but down 1.3 percent from the previous month.
According to Redfin data for the same month, only 297 homes sold in February in Orlando, down 15.9 percent year-over-year, showing that buyers remain reluctant unless sellers considerably slash prices: in the same month, 30.7 percent of homes sold had price reductions, up 2.2 percentage points year-over-year.
"The Orlando housing market is currently witnessing its highest inventory in more than a decade. This might seem like a crazy statistic, but what we have now is actually considered a 'balanced' market," ORRA president Lawrence Bellido told Newsweek.
"During the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates plummeted, causing homes to fly off the market and leading to historically low inventory. Homes would have 20-30 offers within an hour of being listed. It was an extreme challenge for buyers to secure a home, and with so much competition, prices skyrocketed. Inventory has slowly been creeping up back over the last few years," he added.
"Now, with roughly a six-month supply of homes on the market, buyers have more options and room to negotiate—whether that's asking for closing cost assistance or other concessions."
Supply is continuing to grow in Orlando, giving buyers more options and more negotiating power as homebuying season heats up, which accounts in part for a slight uptick in sales this month.
Single-family inventory in Orlando was up by 61 homes in the week between March 16 and March 22, according to the latest data from ORRA, and it now sits at 8,396. During the same period, the median price of a single-family home dropped by 3 percent to $410,000, and sales of single-family homes increased to 390 from 378 the previous week.
The sales of condos, townhomes, and villas also increased during the week ending March 22, from 103 to 112, while their median price dropped by 5.8 percent to $268,500. Condo inventory in the city increased by 30 between the two weeks, and now sits at 4,418.
While Orlando Realtors said this growth in inventory is a sign of a "healthy, stable market", Gerli said that regular homebuyers in Orlando "are completely priced out of the market (still).
"For instance, the typical mortgage payment to buy a house is 39 percent of the local median income. That's way above the long-term average of 27 percent. And reminiscent of what we saw in 2007 at the peak of the last bubble," he added.
Rising homeowner's insurance, property taxes and homeowner association fees are also playing a role in dampening demand in Orlando, the same as the higher cost of living: between 2020 and 2024, prices in the area rose 50 percent, Cotality reported.
What People Are Saying
ORRA's Lawrence Bellido told Newsweek: "The Orlando housing market typically heats up in the summer as the weather warms and families make moves between school years, so I expect to see a rise in sales in the coming months. It will be both a buyers' and sellers' market."
Rose Kemp, past president of ORRA, told WESH 2: "If there is inventory, that means you are going to have those sellers that are negotiable. If you are a seller, that's actually great news too because you can actually go on the market, while looking for your home at the same time and then be able to potentially, simultaneously do back-to-back closings, where you sell your property to pull your equity and get into your new home."
Real-estate analyst Nick Gerli wrote on X: "Some say that this downturn will be nothing like the last one, because we don't have as many bad mortgages. However, Orlando's current inventory trends suggest major concern about the future direction of the market. As inventory is now at the highest level since the last crash."
What Happens Next
Gerli's Reventure App is expecting prices in the Orlando metro to drop by 6 percent over the next year.
"Meanwhile, we have Orlando as a market where prices are 18 percent overvalued compared to long-term norms. So there could be multiple years of a correction coming if current inventory trends hold."
Cotality said in a recent report that while Orlando is also struggling with affordability issues, the city will continue attracting Floridians escaping more expensive metros, including Miami.
Update 4/16/25, 6:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Lawrence Bellido.
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