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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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The Democratic Party could be in good shape to retake control of the House in 2026, even if they don't win one of Tuesday's special elections in Florida, according to an expert.
Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst, said the Democratic candidate overperforming in Florida's 6th congressional district would "build the blocks" for the party to do well in the 2026 midterms.
Newsweek has contacted the Florida GOP for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
Democrats have been in disarray since the crushing defeats in the 2024 elections, with polling suggesting the party is less popular with voters than ever. Any positive results from Tuesday would not only give Democrats a much-needed boost but could also have implications for control of the House, where Republicans hold a narrow 218-213 majority.
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What To Know
Two special elections will take place Tuesday in heavily Republican areas of Florida. In the 1st District, Republican candidate, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, is facing off against Democratic hopeful Gay Valimont. The seat was previously held by former Representative Matt Gaetz, who left after originally being tapped as President Donald Trump's pick for attorney general.
Also on Tuesday, Republican Florida state Senator Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil will compete for the seat in the 6th District. That seat was formerly held by Michael Waltz, who resigned to become Trump's national security adviser.
Both Republican candidates are favored to retain their seats. Waltz won reelection in November 2024 by 33 points, with Trump defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the district by 30 points. Gaetz was reelected with 66 percent of the vote, and Trump won the district with 68 percent.
Enten noted Sunday that the face-off between Fine and Weil could be "far more competitive" than the 2024 results would suggest.
Early and mail-in voting data shows Fine with a 9-point lead over Weil—down significantly from Waltz's 33-point margin nearly five months ago.
Enten said that, if the numbers hold, this could still be a positive sign for Democrats. He added that, in the past five midterm cycles, the party that overperformed in special elections went on to win the House.
Several Republicans, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and War Room host Steve Bannon, have expressed concern about Fine's campaign, fearing he may underperform Tuesday.
At a recent press conference, DeSantis said, if the Trump-endorsed Fine fails to achieve something like a 30-point victory margin, it would be a "candidate-specific issue" rather than a reflection of voter backlash against Trump or the GOP.
Weil has also significantly outspent Fine during the campaign. Weil reportedly raised $10 million for his congressional bid, while Fine raised less than $1 million between November 26 and March 3. Heading into the April 1 election, Weil had more than $1.2 million in cash on hand compared to Fine's $92,600.
What People Are Saying
CNN chief political data analyst Harry Enten said: "If you look right now at the early vote plus the mail vote [for the 6th District special election], and we believe that will make up the majority of the vote based on history, the GOP edge in terms of party registration is just nine points. So there's this idea that this race may, in fact, be far more competitive than the 2024 baseline would suggest.
"If we look so far at the average special election—there have only been really state legislative ones—Democrats are doing about nine points better, on average, than Kamala Harris did. Now you might say, 'OK, who cares?' and so forth. But here's why that's important: Going all the way back to the 2005—2006 cycle, when one party outperforms in special elections, guess how many times they've gone on to win the U.S. House? Five out of five.
"So the fact that Democrats have been outperforming so far is a good sign for them heading into 2026. In fact, if they're able to outperform in Florida again on Tuesday, that would just build the blocks that suggest, 'You know what? We can't win in the 6th District, but that district is so far to the right. All of a sudden, we get more toward the center of the electorate—we may be able to pick up seats that Trump won by five points, even if we can't pick up seats Trump won by 30, like the 6th District.'"
Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried told Newsweek Monday:** "These special elections aren't just important races for Floridians; they are important for all Americans. If Florida Democrats continue the national trend and overperform on Tuesday, any Republican in a close seat should be scared about their reelection chances in 2026. Any blue wave in the next few cycles has to start in the South."
Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, told The Hill: "Given GOP voters tend to turn out more on Election Day, we expect the electorate to settle in the R+14 range once all the [6th District] votes are counted Tuesday. All that being said, we have seen special elections recently where the Democratic candidate has overcome R+15 electorates. That's why this race remains close in a district President Trump won handily in 2024."
Randy Fine campaign spokesperson Bryan Piligra previously told Newsweek: "When Randy is victorious on April 1, it will be because of the strength of the Trump agenda and the faith the American people have in him. Randy is grateful for the president's unwavering confidence in him. The voters of CD 6 know they can count on Randy to fight fiercely alongside President Trump to Make America Great Again."
What Happens Next
Florida's special election results are expected to be announced Tuesday.
Another special election for Arizona's 7th District will take place September 23, with the date for a fourth race in Texas' 18th District still to be confirmed.
Update, 03/31/2025, 12:29 p.m.: This article has been updated with comment from Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried.
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