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By Jordan King
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Wisconsin state Rep. Francesca Hong enters Tuesday’s Democratic gubernatorial primary as the clear front-runner, with a final poll showing her holding a 22-point lead over Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.
Hong received 44 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters, compared with 22 percent for Crowley, 11 percent for state Sen. Kelda Roys and 5 percent for nonprofit executive Joel Brennan, according to State Navigate’s final survey of the race.
The poll surveyed 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters from August 3 to 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Hong’s commanding advantage leaves Crowley facing a steep final challenge despite the backing of outgoing Governor Tony Evers.
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Hong, a 37-year-old democratic socialist, former restaurant owner and Madison lawmaker, has built her campaign around what she calls “permanent affordability,” including expanded child care, greater public-school funding and higher taxes on wealthy residents and corporations.
Her principal opponent, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, has emphasized his governing experience and ability to build a broader electoral coalition, securing the endorsement of outgoing Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.
Their contest has intensified debate over whether a progressive nominee can win statewide in Wisconsin, which President Donald Trump carried in 2016 and 2024. The eventual nominee is expected to face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.
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What the Final Poll Shows
Hong led across all 10 regions examined by State Navigate, including Milwaukee County, where Crowley serves as county executive. Her strongest result was in Dane County, where she led 57 percent to 19 percent.
Her supporters also appeared more committed: 67 percent of Hong voters who had not cast ballots said they would definitely back her, compared with 44 percent among supporters of the other candidates. However, her lead narrowed to 8 points among voters who participated in all four of the previous four primaries, making turnout a potential source of uncertainty.
What Are Francesca Hong’s Odds of Winning?
Prediction markets strongly favor Hong to win the Democratic nomination. As of Aug. 11, Kalshi gave her a 94.9 percent chance of victory, compared with 5.1 percent for Crowley. More than $5 million had been traded on the market.
Polymarket showed a similar picture, placing Hong’s chances at 95.8 percent and Crowley’s at 4 percent. Its market had recorded more than $561,000 in trading volume.
Prediction-market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations, rather than scientific polling, and may change as voting and counting continue.
Why the Wisconsin Primary Matters
The race opened after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers decided not to seek another term, setting up a contest over the party’s direction in one of the country’s most closely divided states. Hong has presented herself as a working-class alternative to the Democratic establishment, drawing on her experience operating Morris Ramen in Madison and advocating for restaurant workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Crowley has offered a more conventional alternative, emphasizing his executive experience and ability to assemble a broad statewide coalition. He reentered the contest after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez withdrew and subsequently received Evers’ endorsement. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes later left the race, leaving Crowley as Hong’s principal rival alongside state Sen. Kelda Roys and nonprofit executive Joel Brennan.
The primary has also focused attention on Hong’s democratic socialist affiliation and past social media posts. Critics, including some Democrats, contend that her record could make it harder for the party to retain the governorship. Hong has rejected that argument, saying her affordability agenda can appeal to working-class voters across Wisconsin and distancing herself from some positions associated with the Democratic Socialists of America.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Cristina Diciu.
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