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By Andrew Stanton
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Texas' Republicans mid-decade redistricting plan, backed by President Donald Trump, could leave several Democratic representatives in precarious positions ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Representative Vicente Gonzalez, whose South Texas district was drawn to become more conservative in the new map, told Newsweek the new district is a "blatant Trump-rigged district" and that he will "win again in an era where Trump is deeply underwater."
Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek that whether or not the map is successful for Republicans will depend on whether the midterm results look similar to 2024, a strong year for the party, or 2018, when Democrats made gains in the state and nationwide.
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Why It Matters
The GOP has appeared ready to use mid-decade redraws in several states to thwart Democratic gains in the midterms. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats, and Democrats are optimistic about a 2018-style "blue wave" next November as Trump's approval rating flounders. If successful, the redrawing efforts could help Republicans retain the majority in the House—or at least diminish Democratic gains.
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Texas Congressional Map: What To Know
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, called a special session that will address redistricting after support from the White House. Trump has indicated he would like to see Republicans net five seats from the process.
Texas has leaned Republican for decades. Democrats made some inroads with voters in the 2010s, but the state shifted rightward in 2024 as the GOP won support from more Latino voters. Republicans are hoping those trends will last for the rest of the decade to allow them to redraw a handful of districts to become more conservative.
There is some risk that Republicans could stretch their voters too thin in some districts and leave some incumbents in more competitive races.
Jones described the plan as a "calculated risk" in an interview with Newsweek following the release of the plan.
"Republicans are taking a calculated risk here," he said. "They're trying to spread relatively thin across these five new targeted districts while weakening themselves modestly in two current Republican districts."
If the election goes similar to 2024, the GOP could pick up three to five districts, he said. However, if it is less favorable, they could lose two seats they already hold in South Texas.
"They are taking a risk in that if Donald Trump's approval ratings decline, if the economy is not doing well and if the Democrats rebound in 2026 similar to how they did in 2018, then it is quite likely to boomerang on the Republicans and resulting in a net loss of seats."
Here is an overview of the Democratic representatives most vulnerable. Newsweek reached out to spokespersons for each of these representatives for comment via email.
Representative Henry Cuellar
Cuellar, a moderate Democrat, is one of two Democrats representing a South Texas district won by Trump last November and is viewed as perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent. Cuellar won reelection by more than five points—but Trump won the former Democratic stronghold by about seven points.
Republicans connectedthe swing areas around San Antonio and Laredo to more conservative rural areas to give Republicans a boost in the district.
A Cuellar spokesperson told Newsweek: "Rep. Cuellar understands the communities that he represents and they trust his experience delivering results. He looks forward to continuing to serve the people of South Texas in Congress and advancing the issues that matter most to them—including strengthening border security, protecting American oil and gas, securing resources for rural communities, and supporting farmers and ranchers. As a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee, he's committed to bringing federal dollars back home to fund critical investments across the region."
Representative Vicente Gonzalez
Gonzalez is the other South Texas centrist at risk. His district, like that of Cuellar, zoomed to the right last November. It spans across the southern part of the state and includes areas like Brownsville and towns near McAllen. Republicans used a similar tactic, spreading those voters across more districts and including more conservative, rural areas in Gonzalez's district.
Gonzalez won the district by fewer than three points while Trump won it by about four points.
He told Newsweek: "The newly proposed TX-34, under the Republicans' outrageously gerrymandered map, is a blatant Trump-rigged district. When they know they can't win, they cheat! It's as simple as that. Texas Republicans have completely surrendered our state to Trump and his billionaire cronies, at the expense of selling out their constituents and Latino voters in South Texas. What they forget is that I'm still a lawyer. We will fight this disgraceful attempt to cheat Lone Star State voters in Federal Court, and will win again in an era where Trump is deeply underwater."
Whether or not Trump's gains with Latino voters are permanent will be the determining factor in whether or not these redraws can be successful. If these voters shift back to the left, it may be more challenging for Republicans to win those seats and others that could take in South Texas voters next November.
Both Cuellar and Gonzalez may face "tougher fights" in 2026 as a result of the new map, but how competitive the races may become depends on whether Latino voters revert back to voting more Democratic. They are not as "fixed in their voting behavior" as white and Black voters in Texas, meaning there is more volatility in the region in terms of election results.
Representative Lizzie Fletcher
Fletcher represents a suburban Houston seat that was redrawn in the last round of redistricting to pack in Democratic voters. But now, Republicans are working to win that seat back by dividing the Houston suburbs, as well as nearby areas that have shifted to the right, up across more districts.
Fletcher was elected to a more competitive iteration of the seat in the 2018 midterms.
Houston Democrats may be playing a game of "musical chairs" as Fletcher could either run for the neighboring seat held by former Representative Sylvester Turner, who died in March or a light red suburban seat, where she'd be the underdog but could win in a good year, Jones said.
Representatives Julie Johnson or Mark Veasey
Republicans are also eyeing a new right-leaning district near Dallas**,** drawing Veasey and Johnson into a single district. Veasey's base of Fort Worth was drawn into more Republican districts.
Johnson's seat is less blue than the one held by Veasey, though she still won her race by 23 points last November. They are in a similar position and may be running in a primary against each other, Jones said.
Johnson called the maps a "disaster" that was "crafted to divide neighborhoods and rig the game for Donald Trump" in a statement.
"It's a desperate move from a party losing its grip on a changing state," she wrote. "Thousands of Texans have overwhelmingly spoken up against this scheme across the state. The message is clear: We don't want this done in our name."
She wrote that the map is "erasing" people of color and "violates voting rights."
Representatives Greg Casar or Lloyd Doggett
The fifth seat Republicans may redraw is in Central Texas. Representative Joaquin Castro's San Antonio district is unlikely to become more conservative, but Casar's seat, which spans from Austin to San Antonio, is likely to be redrawn. This would put Casar and Doggett in a primary for a single Austin-area seat that would contain some of the most left-leaning areas of the state.
Jones said that Casar will "probably be forced to go against Doggett," who could decide to retire instead of run for another term.
Doggett in a statement said Trump is "taking a hatchet to chop up Austin and our state with the sole objective of maintaining his one-man rule."
"This is designed to eliminate accessibility, accountability, and a strong voice for our shared values. For years, Republicans have failed in their attempts to use redistricting to get rid of me. If we continue working together, they will fail again. If Trump and his cowardly Republican accomplices get away with rigging Texas, voters in states across America will be at risk. For now, my sole focus is on defeating this Trump-imposed gerrymandering, which relies on crooked lines instead of honest votes. The only 'What if' that matters is 'What if this crooked scheme is approved to give Trump a rubber stamp to do whatever he pleases,' " he wrote.
What People Are Saying
Representative Fletcher wrote in a statement earlier in July: "Mid-decade redistricting is disrespectful to citizens, no matter their political affiliation, and is a betrayal of our democratic principle that all citizens should have a say in our government. Once a decade, redistricting takes place not for politicians but for citizens. Politicians should not trade their constituents to maximize partisan political advantage. They deserve—and should expect—better from those elected to serve them."
Representative Gonzalez in testimony before the Texas redistricting committee: "I am ashamed to see such a blatant attempt to sell out Texans and shut out key communities—like my own in the Rio Grande Valley—from the process. Our community is strong, and we deserve to be properly represented during both this process and in Congress. I wrote to you all just a few days ago urging you to schedule a field hearing—in-person, not virtual—in the Rio Grande Valley, where all of our citizens have the opportunity to participate if they so choose."
President Donald Trump told reporters this month: "No, no, just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats. But we have a couple of other states where we will pick up seats also."
What Happens Next
Texas isn't the only state considering redistricting. Other Republican states like Florida and Missouri could follow suit, while Democratic leaders in states like California have said they could retaliate by redrawing their own maps.
Jones noted that the map could trigger a quorum break among Democrats in the Texas legislature. If that happens, Republicans may have to wait until September to pass the map, which could brush against November filing.
Update 7/30/2025 11:38 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 7/30/2025 1:35 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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