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By Andrew Stanton
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Gavin Newsom’s 2028 presidential odds rose after he revealed that President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice is investigating him, according to prediction markets.
Newsom, who is viewed as a likely Democratic presidential candidate but has not formally announced a campaign, revealed on Monday that federal agents in recent days have visited the homes of family members, friends and former employees seeking documents and records.
He suggested the investigation was politically motivated and tied to his potential presidential ambitions, writing that Trump is “coming after me because I am considering running for President.”
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Political analysts say the investigation could reshape the early 2028 landscape, and that Newsom could potentially benefit politically from the investigation.
“As we saw when Trump attacked Senator Mark Kelly, a bogus partisan investigation is rocket fuel for fundraising and earned media so the only impact it will have is helping him,” Democratic strategist Eddie Vale told Newsweek.
What to Know
- Newsom says Trump’s DOJ is investigating him, with federal agents visiting associates in recent days.
- Prediction markets show his 2028 odds rising, suggesting traders believe he may benefit politically from the probe.
- Polls still show Kamala Harris leading the 2028 Democratic primary, but Newsom remains one of the strongest Democratic contenders.
Gavin Newsom’s 2028 Odds Rise After DOJ Investigation
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Kalshi favored Newsom to win the Democratic primary on Monday, giving him a 24 percent chance of beating potential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff. That’s an increase from a 21.7 percent chance one week earlier on the market.
On Polymarket, Newsom’s chances of winning the 2028 election rose from 14.4 percent on June 9 to 16 percent on Tuesday. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio also had a 16 percent chance of winning, according to the market.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends.
They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
The impact of the investigation depends on how convincing the evidence may end up being, Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.
“We have passed—either temporarily or permanently—the point where just being under investigation derails a campaign. The president has helped numb the public to that as a red line for a credible run for office. And for some Democrats, it’s like earning a Purple Heart,” he said.
Vale, the Democratic strategist, noted that while details of the investigations are yet to emerge, it’s unlikely that anybody except for “the hardest of MAGA partisans believes anything the Trump DOJ says.”
How Newsom Compares in Recent 2028 Democratic Polls
The rising odds come as new polling continues to show Newsom as one of the strongest Democratic contenders heading into 2028.
- A Noble Predictive Insights poll showed Harris in the lead with 27 percent compared to Newsom’s 14 percent. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg polled at 11 percent, Ocasio-Cortez polled at 8 percent, while Arizona Senator Mark Kelly received 5 percent support. It surveyed 1,224 registered voters from June 1-4 and was first reported by The Center Square.
- A new poll from TIPP released Monday showed Newsom polling at 14 percent support, behind only Harris at 31 percent. It surveyed 593 Democratic voters May 26-28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
- A Focal Data poll showed similar results—Harris led with 36 percent, compared to Newsom’s 16 percent. Buttigieg received 8 percent support, while Ocasio-Cortez’s support stood at 7 percent. It surveyed 1,719 voters May 29-June 1.
- The latest HarrisX/Harvard poll gave Harris 44 percent support compared to Newsom’s 26 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s 10 percent, Ocasio-Cortez’s 8 percent and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s 7 percent. It surveyed 1,725 registered voters from May 29-31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
What Newsom Has Said About Running for President in 2028
Newsom has neither confirmed nor ruled out a 2028 run. Typically, candidates wait until after the midterms to make formal plans, but campaigns could be well underway in less than a year.
"I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold,” he told The Wall Street Journal in June 2025.
In October, he was asked by CBS News if he was giving “serious thought” to a 2028 run.
"Yeah, I'd be lying otherwise," he said. "I'd just be lying. And I'm not—I can't do that."
Newsom has taken steps that have fueled presidential speculation, including visiting early-voting primary states like South Carolina. These visits could give him an opportunity to make inroads with critical voters who could be influential in the primary.
Some Democrats point to Newsom's social media trolling of Trump as an example of better communication that could help the party win back support.
But some critics believe the governor of California, among the most Democratic states in the country, may not resonate with a national audience. He also lacks support from progressives, many of whom prefer other possible candidates such as Ocasio-Cortez.
Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat also viewed as a potential 2028 candidate, said on CNN he does not "look at the politics of it" when asked whether the investigation could bolster Newsom in the primary.
"This is not going to be something that divides Democrats," he said.
Newsom has established himself as a leading anti-Trump voice, clashing with the administration on major issues, including climate policy, energy infrastructure and the president’s deployment of National Guard troops to California last summer.
Why Is the DOJ Investigating Gavin and Jennifer Newsom?
A source familiar with the situation told Newsweek that there have been several investigations ongoing for about a year. The investigations originated in California from whistleblowers and local sources. They are being run through the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Sacramento.
One investigation deals with Newsom’s wife and her taxes. Another deals with a former chief of staff and potentially current staffers, but more details about the scope of that investigation remained private.
The exact number of investigations also remained unclear.
Newsom also said the DOJ investigation involves his wife, Jennifer, but the nature of the alleged probe is unclear.
Newsom's office told Monica Madden of ABC7 in California that the DOJ is "chasing conspiracy theories." Madden reported that Newsom and his wife had not received subpoenas as of Monday.
*″*One by one, anyone who has challenged Donald Trump has ended up on his hit list,” Newsom said in the video statement. “And today, I proudly join that list. He has directed his Department of Justice to investigate us.”
Newsom said the DOJ is “abusing the grand jury process” in its demands for records.
The potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate directly challenged Trump in the post, saying he has “nothing to hide” and vowing he is “not going anywhere,” escalating an already-tense feud.
Trump DOJ Probes President’s Adversaries
The DOJ has opened investigations into other prominent Trump critics, including former FBI Director James Comey, New York Attorney General Letitia James, former CIA Director John Brennan and ex-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Powell investigation, notably, has been dropped.
Democrats were quick to criticize the Newsom investigation.
Jonathan Underland, spokesman for California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, criticized the investigation in a statement to Newsweek.
“Donald Trump called for Governor Newsom’s arrest, then ordered his DOJ to try to manufacture a crime to justify it — and when that wasn’t enough, he went after the Governor’s wife. This is what authoritarians do: they don’t investigate crimes, they attack their critics,” he wrote.
What Happens Next
Future polls will be closely watched to determine how the investigation impacts Newsom's standing among primary voters. Candidates are likely to begin announcing campaigns in early 2027.
As for the investigation, it's unclear when more details would be made public.
Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani told Newsweek on Monday that there is no legal requirement for the DOJ to disclose the existence of an investigation, so ther is no clear timeline as to when the DOJ could provide more details.
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