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By Andrew Stanton
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Republicans were dealt two polling blows in the North Carolina Senate race this week, with Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper holding a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley.
The North Carolina Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the 2026 midterms, with Democrats viewing it as one of their top flip opportunities in November.
North Carolina is an electoral battleground that backed President Donald Trump by about 3 points in 2024. Democrats believe a more favorable national environment driven by Trump’s declining national approval rating, as well as the candidacy of a popular former governor, could give them a perfect storm to win a North Carolina Senate race for the first time since 2008.
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Whatley spokesperson DJ Griffin told Newsweek Democrats are “playing the same old playbook they’ve used since 2014 - lead in the summer and lose in November,” adding that this year will “be no different.”
“Career politician Roy Cooper, with his political career stretching across 5 decades, started with universal name ID and has now spent millions on revisionist history biographical ads but is stuck where he started. All while Michael Whatley’s name ID continues to increase as he visits all 100 counties and speaks with communities across the state that Cooper ignores,” Griffin said.
Jef Allen, campaign manager for Cooper, told Newsweek the race will be “very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate.”
“Roy Cooper has spent his career putting North Carolinians first, while Washington DC insider Michael Whatley spent his delivering for billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class,” Allen said
Roy Cooper’s Double-Digit Polling Lead
Two new polls released this week showed Cooper with a double-digit lead over Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC).
A poll from the Carolina Journal showed Cooper leading Whatley by 12.5 points, 51.5 percent to 39 percent. Other candidates received support from 4.7 percent of respondents, while 4.8 percent were still undecided about who they would support.
Most North Carolina voters disapprove of Trump, according to the poll.
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It found that Trump’s approval stood at 41.2 percent, while 56.7 percent said they disapproved of his job performance. An additional 2.2 percent were still unsure of how they felt about his job performance. It polled 600 respondents from August 9-10, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
An Elon University poll showed Cooper up 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent. Three percent of respondents said they would vote for other candidates, while 2 percent were still undecided about who they would vote for.
It also found that 63 percent of registered voters said they are “absolutely certain” they will cast a ballot, while an additional 20 percent said they believe it is “very likely" they will vote in November, a sign of high interest in the Senate election.
Cooper’s lead was bolstered by his support among independents, who broke for him 49 percent to Whatley’s 22 percent, according to the poll. It surveyed 800 North Carolina voters from July 23-31, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Cooper and Whatley campaigns for comment via email.
What Do Other Polls Show?
Other recent polls also show Cooper with a lead over Whatley.
A Fox News poll showed Cooper up 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,005 registered voters from July 23-27. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a poll from The New York Times and Siena University showed Cooper up 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 601 likely voters from June 15-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 points.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Cooper is favored to flip the seat on prediction markets, having a 91 percent chance of victory on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Thursday. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
North Carolina Is Elusive Swing State for Democrats
North Carolina has consistently voted for Republicans in federal races, but has backed Democrats in governor races, over recent election cycles.
The late Senator Kay Hagan was the last Democrat to win a North Carolina Senate race, in 2008, when former President Barack Obama also won the state.
In 2022, Democrat Cheri Beasley lost to Republican Ted Budd, then a member of the House, by about 3 points. Republican Senator Thom Tillis defeated Democrat Cal Cunningham by less than 2 points in 2020. In 2016, former GOP Senator Richard Burr defeated Democrat Deborah Ross, now a member of Congress, by nearly 6 points.
At the same time, Democrats have held a grip on the governor's mansion. Democrat Josh Stein, who succeeded Cooper, won November's race by nearly 15 points after Republican Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.
Over the past decade, Democrats have gained ground in the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh but have struggled in more rural parts of the state, which were once more competitive when Obama won the state in 2008.
Trump also carried the state in each of his three runs, albeit by narrow margins—about 3.6 points in 2016, 1.3 points in 2020 and 3.2 points in 2024.
As of August 8, there were 2,317,320 registered Democrats in North Carolina, and 2,327,476 registered Republicans. However, 3,125,789 North Carolina voters were registered as unaffiliated, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections.
Democrats’ Chances of Flipping Senate Control
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority.
North Carolina is crucial for Democrats’ efforts to reclaim a Senate majority in November, as it is the only GOP-held seat in a state Trump won by single digits in 2024 that is up for grabs. Democrats are also on the defensive in two Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.
Only one Republican Senator, Susan Collins of Maine, is up for reelection in a state Trump lost—by about 7 points. That is another race considered to be a toss-up.
But even if Democrats hold Georgia and Michigan and flip Maine and North Carolina, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so they are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. Polls show close races in those states despite their conservative leans, but Democrats must win two of those races to secure a majority.
If Democrats fail to flip North Carolina, their already difficult Senate math becomes much more complicated, as they would then have to win three of those double-digit Trump states to win a majority.
On Thursday, Kalshi gave both Democrats and Republicans a 50 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. Polymarket gave Democrats a slight edge with a 53 percent chance of flipping the Senate.
What Happens Next
Forecasters give Cooper an edge, with both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Lean Democratic. The two candidates will spend the coming months on the campaign trail, making their case to voters as Senate control remains up for grabs.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Cristina Diciu, Gray R. Thomas
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