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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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A handful of Republican‑held Senate seats look shakier than they should this cycle, and a blend of ratings, polling, and messy primaries suggests the GOP’s map may be more brittle than it appears.
Why It Matters
Private GOP polling that points to a bleak midterm landscape and a Senate firewall under strain has set off alarms inside the party, Axios reports.
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“A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate,” a source described as a “GOP operative who's reviewed internal polling” told Axios. “Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain.”
Republican National Committee (RNC) spokesperson Zach Parkinson told Newsweek Republicans will keep the Senate this fall with candidates focused key issues such as lower prices and safer streets. “Whatever bedwetting ‘operative’ said this has no f***ing idea what they’re talking about," he said.
Newsweek contacted the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) via email on Saturday, outside of regular office hours.
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What To Know
Using a blended assessment of public forecaster ratings, polling snapshots, and structural factors, North Carolina, Maine, and Texas now stand out as the most plausible Democratic pickup opportunities.
Republicans still appear to hold the upper hand, with Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and The Cook Political Report agreeing that 2026 begins with a narrow but persistent GOP advantage.
Yet the consensus also highlights a cluster of potentially competitive Republican seats, with Texas elevated by a volatile primary landscape and the entrance of a candidate with crossover appeal in Alaska making the race harder to call than before.
In addition, Maine’s Susan Collins is again defending the only Republican‑held seat in a state won by Vice President Kamala Harris—a dynamic that forecasters agree keeps the race in the competitive column.
And online prediction markets Kalshi and PolyMarket both put the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate increasing in recent weeks, with Kalshi rising from a 34.3 percent chance at the start of this month to 36.1 percent at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, Democrats' chances of taking the upper chamber with PolyMarket have risen from 34 percent at the start of this month to 37 percent at the time of writing.
It also follows Republican strategist Karl Rove's warning that the GOP could jeopardize its hold on the Senate in the midterms, arguing the party is heading into politically uncertain terrain.
“Well, it could be close,” Rove said Saturday on Fox News’s Journal Editorial Report. “I mean, first of all, remember, we have Maine — it’s critical to us. The reelection of Collins... she won by nine points, while Trump was losing the state by nine. That’s — think about that — one out of nearly, one out of every five Maine voters six years ago voted for the Democrat for president and the Republican for the U.S. Senate. That’s really unusual.”
To create your Kalshi account now, just click here or use the following links to lock in $10 in bonuses once registration is complete and you have completed $100 worth of trades.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Prediction market operators have no influence over newsroom coverage. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
1. North Carolina: The GOP’s Most Exposed Seat
North Carolina is the one Republican‑held seat in a key swing state that leading political forecasters generally treat as a Toss‑Up, with The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball agreeing on its status.
The retirement of Republican Senator Thom Tillis removes incumbency advantage and turns an already closely divided state into the best offensive opportunity for the Democrats, who have not won here since 2008.
Inside Elections also places the race in the Toss‑Up category, noting that the seat opened after Tillis announced he would not seek reelection.
With no incumbent to stabilize the GOP side—and a well‑known Democratic figure likely to emerge, especially with former Governor Roy Cooper entering the race—this contest is likely to represent the most immediate danger to the Republican majority.
2. Maine: Collins Faces Competitive Terrain Again
Senator Susan Collins has survived tough cycles before, but Maine’s fundamentals continue to make her seat unusually vulnerable.
It remains the only Republican‑held seat in a state carried by Harris in 2024, and although Collins retains deep local goodwill, the race appears on every major outlet’s list of truly competitive GOP defenses.
The Cook Political Report has flagged Maine as one of two GOP‑held seats potentially in play.
Inside Elections rates the contest Tilt Republican, underscoring the risk.
3. Texas: Likely Republican—But Messy Primary Matters
On paper, Texas remains “Likely Republican.” In practice, the GOP is facing one of the most chaotic primaries in the country.
New polling shows Attorney General Ken Paxton, Representative Wesley Hunt, and Senator John Cornyn bunched within 1.5 points of one another in a three‑way race. A J.L. Partners survey found Paxton at 27 percent, Hunt at 25.7 percent and Cornyn at 25.5 percent.
General‑election polling shows Paxton underperforming other Republicans in hypothetical matchups, including trials against Democratic state Representative James Talarico.
A new GOP internal poll tested Talarico and Jasmine Crockett against leading Texas Republicans, revealing different routes to a competitive general election. “Texas cannot be taken for granted,” according to a blunt warning in a National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) memo on the poll.
This introduces real volatility: a bruising primary or a polarizing nominee could soften a seat that should otherwise remain safely Republican.
Inside Elections, The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still list the race as Likely R, but the combination of polling and intraparty conflict lifts Texas higher on the vulnerability list than its rating alone suggests
And this is reflected by forecaster Race to the WH, which lists the seat as Tilt Republican.
4. Alaska: Quietly Competitive Again
Alaska is rarely a marquee battleground, but forecasters now consider Senator Dan Sullivan’s seat to be more competitive than usual.
The Cook Political Report shifted it from Safe to Lean Republican after former Representative Mary Peltola entered the race—a notable downgrade—while Inside Elections also places Alaska in the Lean R column.
Alaska’s coalition politics and ranked‑choice voting system regularly produce unpredictable outcomes.
If Democrats unify behind a single credible challenger, this race could tighten rapidly.
5. Ohio (Special Election): Stable for Now—But Watch the Field
Ohio’s special Senate election to fill the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term remains in the Lean Republican category, according to Inside Election and The Cook Political Report—but Race to the WH lists it as a Toss-Up.
The Ohio special Senate election is being held because JD Vance vacated the seat to become vice president, leading to an appointed incumbent (Jon Husted) who must defend the seat in 2026—an inherently volatile setup.
Special elections can swing unusually quickly when candidate fields are unsettled, which keeps Ohio on the perimeter of the battleground map—not a top‑tier risk, but a race Democrats won’t ignore.
6. Iowa: Likely Republican, but Open Seats Carry Risk
Iowa enters the cycle as a Likely Republican seat, yet the retirement of Senator Joni Ernst removes the stabilizing effect of incumbency. Inside Elections maintains the Likely R rating.
While the fundamentals still favor Republicans, open seats can become vulnerable if the national mood sours or if candidates falter during the long campaign.
What People Are Saying
Zach Parkinson, RNC Communications director, told Newsweek: “Democrats are historically unpopular and are running on defunding law enforcement and returning America to the open borders and failed economy of the Biden era.
“Republicans will keep the Senate this fall because our candidates are focused on the issues that matter to the American people: lower prices, safer streets, and a secure America.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) said in a recent press release: “Momentum is on Democrats’ side ahead of the 2026 election and voters are sending a message that they’re fed up with the MAGA agenda that’s ripping away health care, raising prices, and making people less safe.”
The Cook Political Report's Amy Taylor wrote about North Carolina: "The vulnerability of this seat, however, does not alter the overall Senate math for 2026. Even if Democrats were to win here in 2026, they'd still need to flip three more seats, including at least two in deep red states, in order to win a bare majority."
What Happens Next
Any dire predictions about Republican performance in the 2026 Senate contests are premature.
But the trend, according to the prediction market Kalshi, appears to be heading in the wrong direction for the GOP.
The chances of the Democrats taking the Senate hit 36.8 percent on February 8, its highest level with the market, falling to 36.1 percent at the time of writing.
It represents a significant 19.1 percentage point swing toward the Democrats since November 2024, when their chances of flipping the Senate stood at just 17 percent.
With primary season only just underway—and the possibility that Democrats nominate weak candidates in Iowa, Maine, and Michigan—the landscape remains fluid.
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