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By Anna Commander
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The Cook Political Report has shifted two governor's races toward Democrats one week before midterm elections, with changes seen in Nebraska and Kansas—two Midwest states President Donald Trump won easily in the 2024 presidential election.
According to the forecaster, the gubernatorial contest in Nebraska is shifting from likely Republican to lean Republican and the battle in Kansas is shifting from lean Republican to a toss-up.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Trump won Kansas and Nebraska during the 2024 presidential election versus then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have recently slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns. The polling lows come as Trump has crisscrossed the country in the lead-up to November 3 to rally for potentially vulnerable GOP candidates.
Newsweek reached out to Republican nominee Ty Masterson's campaign via Facebook and Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher's campaign in Kansas via email, along with Republican incumbent Jim Pillen's campaign in Nebraska via email on Tuesday night.
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What To Know
Trump easily won the 2024 presidential election in Kansas with 57.2 percent of the vote compared to Harris' 41 percent, and in Nebraska, he secured 59.3 percent of the vote compared to Harris' 38.9 percent.
In Kansas, Cook is shifting the gubernatorial race as the state's U.S. Senate battle has become more competitive between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Cook also cites internal polling from Holscher as a contributing reason.
"Republicans still feel optimistic about flipping this race, and it remains their best takeover opportunity, but the volatility of the contest merits it being in a more competitive column," Cook notes in part in its report on Tuesday. Masterson, who is backed by Trump, has been leading in a majority of polling over Holscher.
Holscher reacted to Cook's report on X Tuesday, saying, "BREAKING NEWS: Cook Political Report has officially moved our race to a TOSS-UP! Despite over $20 million in spending against us, the momentum is clearly on our side. All gas, no brakes."
In Nebraska, Cook cites internal polling and a crowded ballot among the reasons behind shifting the race. Rick Beard is also running there as the Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate and Brett Lindstrom is competing with the America First Party.
Pillen leads in a majority of recent polling and is also backed by Trump.
"The presence of an America First candidate could hurt the incumbent, but a Legal Marijuana NOW candidate could also pull from Walz," Cook said in part in its report Tuesday.
Sophie Mestas, spokesperson for Democratic nominee Lynne Walz's campaign, told Newsweek via email on Tuesday night that "This shift reflects what we're seeing on the ground every day: Nebraskans know what's at stake, and they're ready for a Governor who works for them."
"Jim Pillen has spent four years putting himself and his friends first. Lynne Walz will always answer to Nebraskans, not special interests. She's earned support in every corner of this state, and with one week to go, she's not slowing down."
Overall, Cook says that Democrats are in a position to net anywhere from two to four gubernatorial seats this midterm election cycle. Republicans have controlled a majority of governorships for roughly two decades, not including a four-year Democratic stint from roughly 2007 to 2011. There are 36 top state seats on the ballot in next week's election, of which the parties currently hold 18 apiece.
What the Polling, Prediction Markets Show
In Nebraska, a recent YouGov survey showed Walz had 43 percent of the potential vote compared to Pillen's 44 percent, while 2 percent said someone else, 10 percent were undecided and 1 percent said they would not vote. The poll surveyed 1,809 Nebraska likely voters from September 24 to October 3 and had a margin of error of 3.3 percent.
On prediction market site Kalshi, Pillen has 82 percent compared to Walz's 18 percent. Polymarket showed an identical spread on Tuesday night.
In Kansas, a recent YouGov poll shows Masterson with 47 percent compared to Holscher's 44 percent while 1 percent said someone else and 7 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 2,255 Kansas likely voters from September 24 to October 4 and had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.
A New York Times and Siena Research Institute poll shows Masterson with 49 percent and Holscher with 44 percent. Seven percent didn't know or refused to answer while less than 0.5 percent said another candidate. The poll surveyed 605 likely voters from September 22 to September 30 and had a margin of error of 4.6 percent.
On Kalshi, Masterson has 73 percent compared to Holscher's 27 percent. On Polymarket, Masterson also has 73 percent compared to Holscher's 28 percent on Tuesday night.
Map Shows Toss-Up Governor's Races Ahead of Midterms
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins.
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