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By Mandy Taheri
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Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa are locked in a tight gubernatorial race, according to a new poll that finds Abbott holding a slim lead within the margin of error.
The poll comes around three months before Texas voters will decide whether to elect a Democrat as governor for the first time in more than three decades or give Abbott a fourth term that would put him on track to become the longest-serving governor in state history. Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990 and has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980.
Democrats believe President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating could fuel a blue wave that allows them to compete in more conservative states, such as Texas, where there is also a high-profile Senate race. Republicans contend that the state remains conservative and point to their decades-long dominance in statewide races.
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Abbott is viewed by forecasters and prediction markets as a strong favorite for reelection, with the Cook Political Report ranking the race as “solid Republican,” though polls suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over former Representative Beto O’Rourke in 2022.
“Although demographic and political changes continue to reshape the state, Abbott retains significant advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and partisan advantage,” Alex Patton, principal of Ozean Media, told Newsweek in an email. He added, “A Democratic victory in the governor’s race is not completely out of the question, but remains unlikely.”
However, Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist and co-founder of UpShift Strategies, told Newsweek, “It is clear Hinojosa has the momentum. This race has gone from a 10 point race to a 7 point race to a 5 point race to a 3 point race.”
Texas’ race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide in 2026, a cycle that includes several other high-profile open-seat races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.
Newsweek has reached out to Abbott and Hinojosa's campaigns for comment via email on Tuesday.
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What the New Poll Shows
A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,048 likely Texas voters finds Abbott leading Hinojosa 45 percent to 42 percent, with about 10 percent of voters undecided.
Hinojosa leads Abbott among independents by 5 percentage points and among moderates by 18 points. She also holds sizable advantages among Black and Latino voters, leading by 49 points and 38 points, respectively. Abbott, meanwhile, leads among college-educated voters by 9 points and among white voters by 29 points.
The poll was conducted between from July 15 to July 17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch ally of Trump who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022. Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.
Gordon told Newsweek, “the fact that he [Abbott] is polling under 50% is not a good sign for him. If Hinojosa can continue to win over independents and turn out Latino voters, this race is very winnable for her.”
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Patton, on the other hand, said Hinojosa has “an uphill battle,” adding that she would “likely need to win a substantial share of undecided voters, make gains among independents and moderate Republicans, and generate unusually strong Democratic turnout to overcome those advantages.”
The poll found Hinojosa with a net favorability rating of 7 points, with 31 percent of voters viewing her favorably and 24 percent unfavorably. About 45 percent said they were unsure or did not know enough about her to form an opinion.
Abbott's net favorability stood at 1 point. The governor was viewed favorably by 48 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 47 percent, while just 6 percent said they were unsure, reflecting his far higher name recognition.
Trump had a negative 3 net favorability, with 48 percent viewing him favorably and 51 percent unfavorably. Just 1 percent were unsure.
What Other Polls Show
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely voters surveyed from June 19 to June 27 found Abbott with the backing of 51 percent of voters and Hinojosa with 44 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Abbott had a 7-point lead over Hinojosa in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll conducted from June 5 to June 12. The poll of 1,200 registered voters found Abbott up 47 percent to her 40 percent, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
A June poll from Reconnaissance Market Research, the Siena Research Institute and Texas A&M University points to a potentially close race but gives Abbott an advantage. The governor received 49 percent support in the poll compared to Hinojosa’s 44 percent.
It polled 807 likely voters from June 1 to June 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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A Texas Public Opinion Research that surveyed 1,670 likely voters on May 27 and May 28 found Abbott leading by 5 points with 46 percent compared to Hinojosa’s 41 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey, which was conducted among 643 registered voters on May 22 and May 23, showed him up four points with 48 percent to Hinojosa’s 44 percent.
A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Abbott up 6 points with 49 percent to Hinojosa’s 43 percent. It surveyed 1,223 likely voters from April 22 to May 6.
Prediction markets continue to place Abbott's odds of winning above Hinojosa’s. As of Tuesday afternoon, Polymarket gave him a 94 percent chance of winning, while Kalshi put his odds at about 91 percent. Hinojosa's chances stood at 6 percent on Polymarket and roughly 11 percent on Kalshi.
Abbott’s Fundraising Advantage
Abbott benefits from high name recognition and strong fundraising. He entered the race with $106 million in the bank, reported The Texas Tribune. Hinojosa is less well known than O’Rourke was in 2022, due to his 2018 Senate and presidential bids.
Campaign finance filings with the Texas Ethics Commission show that Texans for Greg Abbott, the governor's principal campaign committee, has spent more than $54.5 million during the 2026 election cycle. It also says he has over $67.2 million in cash on hand.
Hinojosa’s total expenditures are a little less than $4 million. She has about $3 million in cash on hand, per the filings reviewed by Newsweek.
Texas Senate Race
Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority, so Democrats are hoping to flip at least four seats to gain control of the chamber, with strategists eyeing the Texas seat as a pickup opportunity. The state has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988.
Surveys show both Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup comes after Paxton defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff in late May.
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Multiple recent surveys have indicated a highly competitive contest between Paxton—who has been endorsed by Trump—and Talarico, the Democrat who has served as state representative since 2018 and was previously a middle school teacher. Paxton is Texas' attorney general with a history of legal issues. In 2015, was indicted on state securities fraud charges related to activities before taking office. He pleaded not guilty. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023, which approved 20 articles against him. The Senate acquitted him. The Republican has repeatedly dismissed the impeachment and other allegations as politically motivated.
The same Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Tuesday found Talarico leading 45 percent to Paxton’s 40 percent. The poll found him also leading with independents by 20 points and moderates by 34 points.
Other polls, such as a recent New York Times/Siena poll, shows the race in a dead heat, with 47 percent for both Talarico and Paxton, and 6 percent of voters undecided.
The poll of 656 likely voters found that a higher share of likely voters believe Paxton is "too extreme," 50 percent, compared to Talarico's 43 percent. The gap is larger when considering which candidate is believed to have "good character," with Talarico with 56 percent of the vote and Paxton 38 percent. The poll was conducted from June 19 to June 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
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Another late-June survey by A2 Insights polled 618 likely voters from June 23 to June 28 and found Talarico with a slight edge, 48 percent to Paxton's 46 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.
A June poll by University of Texas/Texas Politics Project found Paxton with a single-point lead, 43 percent compared to Talarico’s 42 percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 3 percent said they would vote for someone else. Ten percent were still undecided about whom they would vote for in November.
Texans will head to the polls in the fall to determine both the governor's race and closely watched U.S. Senate contest, offering another test on whether Democrats can make gains in a state that has long favored Republicans.
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