...
By Hugh Cameron
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
The cost of food in the U.S. appears poised to rise sharply alongside oil prices, as war-related supply disruptions put pressure on the companies and farmers who keep the country’s shelves stocked.
“The big story right now is oil,” economist Justin Wolfers told MS NOW on Tuesday. “The next story is food.”
Oil prices have risen over 50 percent since the conflict began on February 28, pushing gas prices to a nationwide average of over $4.50 for the first time since 2022.
Read More on News
With farmers now battling higher fertilizer costs on top of the evident increase in their fuel costs—as well as tariffs and a disappearing workforce—some are warning that the next major price shock to hit America will be at the checkout rather than the pump.
Food Prices: How Fast Are They Climbing?
Even before the conflict, sticky inflation on several food staples was straining American household budgets.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), annual headline inflation rose from 3.3 percent in March to 3.8 percent in April, reaching its highest level across both of Donald Trump’s terms.
The energy index has risen 17.9 percent since April 2025, with food up 3.2 percent. Within the latter category, food at home—the amount paid for groceries—rose 0.7 percent in April for the largest one-month increase since early 2022, while hitting 2.9 percent on an annualized basis.
...
And given shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—which remains almost entirely closed despite officials touting progress in negotiations—some are warning the worst impacts for groceries are yet to hit.
Why the Conflict Could Push Grocery Prices Higher
Around a third of the world’s seaborne trade in fertilizers typically goes through the Hormuz Strait, and this disruption has driven up U.S. prices by around 20 percent since the conflict began, according to the Green Markets Weekly North America Fertilizer Price Index.
The World Bank predicts that global fertilizer prices will increase by 31 percent in 2026, due largely to the 60 percent increase in urea prices, creating affordability pressures that are already “eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields.”
While economists like Wolfers predict that poorer nations will be hardest hit by this disruption, farmers in the U.S. have voiced concerns amid the critical planting season. According to an April survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation, 70 percent of farmers report being “unable to afford all the fertilizer they need”—pressures compounded by a 46-percent increase in farm diesel costs since the war began.
The Department of Agriculture has already raised food price forecasts for several food groups in 2026 to reflect these new issues, though projected increases remain unchanged or have been lowered across others.
But according to some experts, the full effects of the conflict on food prices have not yet been felt.
“The impacts of the major fertilizer supply disruption haven’t yet hit,” said Chris Barrett, a professor of economics and agriculture at Cornell University. “Those effects will materialize starting in late summer and build over the course of the fall and winter as the impacts emerge from diminished harvests in places like India, Thailand and Vietnam.”
By the end of 2026, Barrett told Newsweek he expects food price inflation to reach around 11 percent on a year-over-year basis.
“This will hit Americans struggling to feed their families,” he added.
Agricultural economists Ken Foster and Bernhard Dalheimer of Purdue University told Newsweek that “pre-conflict forces were already exerting meaningful upward pressure on food prices before the first shot was fired,” and said that the price shock resulting from the war will extend beyond the downstream impact of fertilizer costs.
“Diesel moves every truck, petrochemicals make every package, and electricity powers every refrigeration chain,” they said. When a drought hits, consumers can switch from expensive impacted food products to cheaper less impacted products. When energy costs rise, every category is affected simultaneously.”
And while “slow to arrive,” Foster and Dalheimer said the price impacts will be “even slower to recede.”
“Food affordability, particularly for lower-income households, is at meaningful risk,” they added*,* “and that risk will intensify as the supply chain pipeline continues to deliver its accumulated cost pressure into retail prices over the coming months.”
What Happens Next
There are few indications that the war is nearing a conclusion, with both sides remaining skeptical of the other’s negotiating demands. On Wednesday, President Trump told reporters he was in “no hurry” to reach a deal with Tehran, but indicated that he was open to a more limited agreement focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Foster and Dalheimer told Newsweek that while the war’s impact on food prices “will be meaningful,” the extent of this “hinges almost entirely” on how long this waterway remains cut off to commercial shipping.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines