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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Democrats are ahead in the race for Congress, but a cluster of high-quality polls suggests their lead is far too thin to call the kind of wave they are banking on for 2026, according to CNN’s chief data analyst.
On June 15, CNN's Harry Enten warned that several high-quality polls show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by only about 3 points, short of the benchmark set in past wave years.
This matters because Republican-led redistricting has tilted the House map, so Democrats need a clear 3- to 4-point national edge just to win back the chamber.
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With control of Congress at stake, whether that lead expands or stalls could help determine the trajectory of the second half of Trump's presidency.
Key Points
- CNN data analyst Harry Enten flagged a Democratic "warning sign" on June 15, noting the party's generic-ballot lead averages just 3 points across Ipsos, Marquette University Law School and NBC News.
- NBC News (May 29 to June 7) gives Democrats a 5-point edge, 49 percent to 44 percent—half their 2018 margin and well under half their 2006 lead.
- The soft lead holds, even as Trump sits deeply underwater, near 37 to 39 percent approval in national averages.
- Prediction market Kalshi gives Democrats a 78 percent chance of winning the midterms—strong, but a more-than-1-in-5 chance that Republicans hang on.
Newsweek contacted the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the Republican National Committee for comment via email on Wednesday morning.
Why It Matters
Historically, a president with approval ratings as weak as Trump's would be expected to drag his party toward significant midterm losses.
But while Democrats are leading national congressional polling, the margin remains narrower than in previous wave-election cycles. With Republican redistricting gains raising the bar for a House takeover, even a small polling advantage may not be enough to guarantee control of the chamber.
The Lead That Looks Smaller Than It Should
Speaking on CNN, Enten opened his case with a simple comparison: Democrats are ahead, he acknowledged, "but compared to what we see historically, it's really not that big of a lead."
NBC News polling puts the party up 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. That is half the 10-point cushion Democrats carried in 2018 and less than half the 11-point margin they enjoyed in 2006—both years they took back the House.
"It's this type of lead where you say, you know what, Democrats are ahead, but don't count your chickens just quite yet," Enten told anchor John Berman.
"The Dems' midterm warning sign is pretty clear," he later wrote in a post on X.
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A Pattern Across Pollsters
Enten went on to point out that the soft numbers repeat across outlets. He grouped NBC News, Marquette University Law School and Ipsos and tracked them from winter into early summer.
Between January-February and May-June, NBC slipped 1 point, Marquette fell 3, and Ipsos held essentially flat. None produced the surge a real wave would generate.
"You have this group of pollsters that are out there where this lead, simply put, is not matching what you might expect if you were expecting a Democratic wave," Enten said.
The newest NBC survey, conducted May 29 through June 7 among 2,400 registered voters, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Iposos’ survey was conducted among 4,531 U.S. adults, fielded June 3 to 8, 2026; conducted online; with a margin of error plus or minus two points overall.
And the Marquette poll was conducted May 20 to 26, 2026, interviewing 1,001 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Redistricting Raises the Bar
After Republican gains in redistricting, Enten estimates Democrats now need a national House-vote advantage "between a 3- and 4-point" margin to actually win control.
Taken together, polling from NBC News, Ipsos and Marquette places Democrats close to that threshold—but not comfortably above it. "It's right on the border there," Enten said, arguing that a Democratic House takeover remains far from guaranteed.
A party can win the national House vote and still fall short if competitive seats are stacked against it. The generic ballot tells you the national mood; it does not redraw the districts.
For Democrats, a 3-point lead is useful and incomplete at the same time, Enten said.
The Independent Question
Independents are Democrats' clearest bright spot and their biggest unknown.
NBC's poll shows them breaking 46 percent to 34 percent for Democrats, a 12-point gap—and independents often decide marginal suburban districts.
Yet an AP-NORC analysis, aggregating 21 surveys from July 2024 to April 2026, with a combined 4,836 independents, points to a longer structural drift: the share of voters identifying as independent has fallen from roughly 4 in 10 around the 2024 election to about a quarter by spring 2026.
*The Economist/*YouGov weekly tracker tells an even-sharper story among independents: Trump's net approval with the group sank to minus 50 in its May 29 to June 1 survey of 1,604 adults (margin of error plus or minus 3.6 points), an all-time low for the series.
That marks a 46-point collapse from the minus 4 he posted with independents in late January 2025, just after his second term began—a slide YouGov's Allen Houston called "a record-low among Independents for either term."
This decline in support creates an opening for Democrats hoping to seize on the president's unpopularity with this core demographic group.
Cracks in the Coalition
On top of a collapse in support among independent voters, there is also erosion in Trump's base, according to recent polling.
In the Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by Enten, Trump's approval among rural Americans fell to 50 percent from 60 percent in February 2025, with disapproval climbing to 48 percent from 34 percent earlier in his term.
Just 31 percent of rural respondents approved of his handling of the cost of living and the economy, against 61 percent who disapproved. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 3 points among rural respondents.
Fox News polling, conducted May 15 to 18, 2026, among 1,002 registered voters, via live phone and text-to-web, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, shows his net approval among rural voters falling from plus 20 in March 2025 to minus 14 in May 2026.
That 34-point swing, alongside weak rural marks on the economy and inflation, suggests affordability pressures are not just hurting Trump with independents but beginning to unsettle parts of his own 2024 coalition.
Soft Despite Trump's Numbers
The puzzle is that Democrats are underperforming even as Trump struggles. National averages place him well underwater: the New York Times estimate has him at 39 percent approval against 57 percent disapproval, and CNN's poll of polls lands at 37 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval.
Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin tracker shows his net approval recovering slightly to around minus 18.7 after a late-May low, still weaker than at the equivalent point in his first term.
That gap—between Trump's weak approval and the Democrats' still-modest lead—is what drives Enten's caution.
Democrats are ahead, he said, but the pattern suggests voters can sour on a president without rushing to hand his opponents the keys to Congress; this is a sign of how polarization can blunt the distance presidential unpopularity travels down the ballot.
For Republicans, the implication is defensive: deny Democrats a clean referendum by keeping races local and competitive, and lean on the structural edge that raises the bar Democrats have to clear.
What Prediction Markets Show
Beyond the polling, Enten pointed to the betting markets as another flashing caution light.
On the Kalshi prediction market, he said, Democrats hold a clear advantage to retake the House, sitting at a 78 percent chance—but he was quick to stress what that figure leaves out.
"Democrats clearly have the advantage at 78 percent chance, but that's far from 100 percent, right?" Enten said. "That's a 1 in 5—more than a 1-in-5 chance Republicans hold on."
The Senate picture, Enten noted, tilts the other way.
Republicans still hold the edge there, with Enten observing it is "more likely than not that the GOP holds on to the Senate," according to the same Kalshi markets.
For Enten, the numbers reinforced rather than softened his warning. "Yes, Democrats probably take back the House, but it's far from a guarantee," he said, framing the markets as a deliberate corrective against complacency.
"We are not going to get caught, like in past years. We ignore those polls that had those warning signs."
It is, as anchor John Berman put it, "a trend worth watching."
What the White House Says
White House spokesman Davis Ingle has repeatedly pointed to Trump’s 2024 victory as a more definitive measure of support than recent polling.
Ingle said "the ultimate poll was November 5th, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda."
Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," arguing that the gains made so far are "just the beginning" as the president’s agenda continues to unfold.
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