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By Hollie Silverman, Jennifer Radcliffe, and Andrew Stanton
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Democrats are hoping to erase Republicans' narrow majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, when all 435 House races are up for grabs.
Republicans currently hold 218 House seats to Democrats' 214, with one independent and two vacancies, so Democrats only need to flip a few seats to win control of the chamber.
Democrats enter Election Day optimistic about their chances of flipping control of the House, as the party outside of the White House historically has picked up seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular. That is the case for Presisdent Donald Trump, whose approval has suffered amid voter frustration with the state of the economy and cost of living.
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Only a fraction of the 435 contests are expected to determine the outcome. Roughly 50 House races were expected to be competitive, stretching from battleground districts in Arizona and California to Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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A Democratic takeover would establish a major check on the Trump administration. It would give Democrats the ability to block legislation passed without bipartisan support, while opening the door to congressional investigations of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, a continued Republican majority would preserve the GOP's control of the lower chamber and strengthen Trump's ability to pursue his legislative agenda.
On the eve of the election, the Cook Political Report classified 18 races as being pure toss-ups, with an additional 18 in each category for Lean Democratic and Lean Republican. An additional 18 races were classified as being Likely Democratic, with 17 landing in the Likely Republican column.
The forecaster gives Democrats an overall edge to take the House, favoring them in 222 races. But those toss-ups will have major implications for the size of the potential Democratic majority. A larger one would give the party more of a mandate to block the administration's actions as well as more cushioning on major votes where some Democrats may defect.
A handful of races in states that are called early could signal how deep Democrats are able to penetrate Trump-won districts.
Here is a look at the dynamics at play in five of the races to watch early in the night.
Kentucky's 6th District
One of the earliest tests of the night will be in Kentucky's 6th District, which Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. It's based around Lexington and it suburbs and is seen as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Ralph Alvarado are running to succeed Representative Andy Barr, who is running for Senate.
Democrats don't need to flip this district to win a majority, and victory in such a conservative district would be seen as a significant upset even in a strong year for them.
But the margins here could be an early signal. If Democrats outright win the race or even come within a few points of the seat, it would be a major red flag for Republicans about how the rest of the night may go. But if Alvarado wins more comfortably, it could be seen as an early sign that Democrats may not get as large of a majority as they would hope.
The district is notably important because Kentucky, along with Indiana, is the first state where polls close at 6 p.m. ET.
Of course, no single district is going to completely tell the story of the midterms, as local factors and candidate quality could also sway any given race. But this contest has emerged as a major bellwether that will be closely watched by analysts early in the night.
North Carolina's 1st District
Republicans redrew the district held by Democratic Representative Don Davis as part of mid-decade redistricting. Under current lines, Trump won the seat by about 3 points. But in the new district used for this year's elections, Trump won by about 12 points, a more conservative seat based around eastern North Carolina.
Democrats are primed to have a good night in the Tar Heel State. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has emerged as a clear favorite in the Senate race, despite the state backing Trump by about 3 points two years earlier. This seat will test whether Democrats are able to win back voters in rural Southern states, a question facing Democrats in Senate contests in places like Mississippi and South Carolina.
It also tests the power of an established incumbent whose district was changed significantly in redistricting. A key question the GOP faces this year is whether its redistricting arms race was really worth any gains, and this seat, a top target, could prove crucial to that test.
The Cook Political Report classifies it as a toss-up.
In addition, North Carolina's 11th District in the western part of the state, held by GOP Representative Chuck Edwards, is also competitive. The Asheville-based district is seen as Leans Democratic by the Cook Political Report, with Democrat Jamie Ager being seen as the favorite over Republican Jennifer Balkcom, who became the nominee after Edwards announced his withdrawal earlier in the year.
Pennsylvania's 1st District
There are four Pennsylvania House races that are competitive and could be seen as important bellwethers, but Pennsylvania's 1st District is an important gauge into how far the blue wave could sweep.
Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick won reelection by nearly 13 points in 2024, even as former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly edged out Trump in the district. Fitzpatrick, a moderate, is among the GOP's top overperformers, who year after year has defeated Democratic challengers despite the seat's blue tinge.
If Fitzpatrick loses to Democratic challenger Bob Harvie, it would be a sign that even entrenched Republican incumbents are at risk across the country. The race is seen as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, which shifted the race out of the Lean Republican column last week, in the final stretch of the campaign.
Pennsylvania's 7th and 10th Districts are both seen as particularly important races for Democrats. In the 7th District, based around Allentown, Republican Representative Ryan Mackenzie, who flipped the seat in 2024, is facing a challenge from Democrat Bob Brooks. In the 10th District, Republican Representative Scott Perry faces a rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson, who nearly unseated Perry in 2024 despite Trump winning the seat by 5 points.
If those two seats don't flip, Democrats may be facing a more difficult night, as they're both Lean Democratic in the Cook report.
In Pennsylvania's 8th District race, GOP Representative Rob Bresnahan—who also flipped the seat in 2024—faces a challenge from Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, marking another toss-up to watch.
Texas' 15th District
South Texas was one of the Republican Party's greatest triumphs in the 2024 election. But two years later, those gains are now threatened to be wiped out. The region, with a large Hispanic population, has long voted for Democrats but flipped to Trump in the most recent election.
But polling suggests the president's support among Hispanic voters has waned. Texas' 15th District is one race to watch to gauge whether Republicans' inroads with these voters will hold, or if there will be a significant reversion to Democrats.
Trump carried the seat by 18 points. Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz is facing a challenge from Democrat Bobby Pulido in what has emerged as a toss-up in the Cook Political Report. Democrats will need a strong Hispanic reversion to flip this seat.
There are several other races in Texas and other states where a Hispanic reversion would spell trouble for Republicans. In Texas, a shift back to Democrats would all leave Republicans facing tougher odds in the 23rd, 28th, 34th and 35th Districts. All backed Trump in 2024 but were once seen as more competitive.
Strong margins in South Texas could also bode well for Democrats James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa in the Senate and governor's race, respectively, which will be among the most closely watched contests.
Virginia's 1st District
Virginia's 1st District was one that barely shifted from 2020 to 2024, even as the national trends shifted significantly toward the GOP. Suburban areas outside of Richmond did not see significant rightward movement, with Chesterfield County actually shifting leftward, defying national trends.
Democrats hope that could leave GOP Representative Rob Wittman vulnerable against Henrico County Prosecutor Shannon Taylor in the suburban seat that backed Trump by only about 5 points in 2024. This seat will test the durability of Democrats' gains in wealthy suburbs over the past decade against another Republican who has historically overperformed.
The race is a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report.
It borders two other important districts as well. In Virginia's 2nd District, Republican Representative Jen Kiggans faces former Democratic Representative Elaine Luria, who lost reelection in 2022. Trump carried the seat by less than half a percentage point in 2024, and the race is seen as Lean Democratic by Cook.
Meanwhile, forecasters have also seen a more competitive-than-expected race in Virginia's 5th District, where GOP Representative John McGuire faces former Democratic Representative Tom Perriello. Cook considers it Lean Republican, but Sabato's Crystal Ball recently shifted it to the Leans Democratic column, despite early expectations that McGuire may face an easy race.
Democrats' Must-Win Pickups
There are 16 seats held by Republicans where Democrats are favored to win in the midterms, according to the Cook Political Report.
These races are true must-wins for Democrats to have a chance of winning a House majority, especially because not every seat Democrats currently hold are guaranteed to stay in their hands. In fact, Democrats are expected to lose at least a handful of seats due to redistricting in states like Florida, Louisiana, Tennessee and Texas.
Democrats losing any of these seats would be a red flag that they may not enjoy as much of a blue wave as they would have hoped.
These top-tier pickups include NC-11, PA-07, PA-10 and VA-02.
On the East Coast, this includes New Jersey's 7th District, where GOP Representative Tom Kean Jr., whose monthslong absence from the House garnered national attention, faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett.
There are four seats in the Midwest where Democrats are seen as favorites to flip. Those include Iowa's 1st District, where Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan in what was among the closest races of 2024, and Iowa's 3rd District, where Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott is challenging GOP Representative Zach Nunn. Both are Leans Democratic in the Cook report.
Cook also classifies Wisconsin's 3rd District—where Democrat Rebecca Cooke is locked in a rematch against Republican Representative Derrick Van Orden—as Leans Democratic. Cooke lost by fewer than 3 points in 2024, even as Trump carried the district by 7 points.
Nebraska's 2nd District, where Democrat Denise Powell and Republican Brinker Harding are competing to succeed GOP Representative Don Bacon, is seen as Likely Democratic.
There are also a number of these seats in the West, where results may be posted later Tuesday night ET.
Democrats are favored to flip two seats in Arizona, which are rated Leans Democratic. Democrat Amish Shah is favored over Republican Jay Feely in Arizona's 1st District, an open seat, while Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is seen as having an edge over Republican Representative Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's 6th District.
Colorado's 8th District, based around northern Denver suburbs, is another must-win. Democrat Manny Rutinel is challenging first-term Republican Representative Gabe Evans in the swing seat.
Meanwhile, in California, Democrats are expected to easily win the 1st, 6th and 41st Districts due to redistricting.
California's 48th District is seen as Lean Democratic. Democrat Marni Von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond are vying for the Southern California seat that became more Democratic in redistricting, backing Harris by about 3 points.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech, Gray R. Thomas, Edward T. Cummins
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