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Andrew Stanton

By Andrew Stanton

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Democrats’ lead over Republicans on the generic ballot in the 2026 midterms is more modest compared to their advantage during President Donald Trump’s first midterm in 2018, even as his administration's popularity falls to record lows in the latest polls.

Election season is kicking off after Labor Day weekend, and Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances of flipping the House majority in November. Polling suggests Trump’s popularity has waned since his return to office amid growing concerns around the economy, cost of living and the unpopular war in Iran. Democrats believe Trump’s disapproval will translate to victories for their candidates in key districts.

Key Takeaways

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Democrats Lead Battle to Retake House

The latest polls give Democrats a lead over Republicans, and history is on their side to win a House majority. In the past, when a president’s approval rating is low, the party out of power tends to do well in the midterms.

That was the case in 2018, when Democrats flipped dozens of House seats to take back the House. But Democrats’ lead is not as strong as it was six years earlier, as the party has struggled to recover its image after suffering losses in 2024. The shift could raise questions about how strong a majority Democrats could have after the midterms if they win control.

The U.S. Capitol building is seen on July 04, 2026, in Washington, D.C.

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On Tuesday, Democrats had a 5.8-point lead in the generic ballot, according to RealClearPolitics’ aggregate. For comparison, they had a 7.8-point lead on September 8, 2018.

Voters being “generally more sour” on the Democratic Party overall is a key factor as to why they have a more modest lead this time around, Shawn Donahue, professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek on Tuesday.

“The people that may decide the election are people that disapprove of Donald Trump and have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party this year,” he said.

Newsweek reached out to the DCCC and NRCC for comment via email.

Democrats' Midterm Polls Compared to Trump's First Midterm Polls

Recent polls offer a glimpse into how Democrats’ generic ballot advantage compares to 2018.

Morning Consult

YouGov/The Economist

Ipsos/Reuters

Redistricting Shrinks Battleground

Democrats are also facing a shrinking battleground following a mid-decade redistricting arms race that Republicans are likely to benefit from.

Republicans are likely to pick up a handful of seats that were redrawn by state legislators to favor the GOP. Competitive and Democratic-leaning seats have become more conservative in states like Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas.

Democrats could pick up a handful of seats in California and Utah, but struggled to offset GOP gains in conservative states.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh on Tuesday rejected Missouri’s request to intervene to block a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that said a Republican-drawn map could not be used in this year’s midterm.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a press conference in Washington, D.C. on September 3, 2026.

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Donahue said there are several races that are likely to be nearly automatic flips for the GOP—two seats in Texas, one in Louisiana and one in Tennessee. Several others are also strong flip opportunities for Republicans if not guaranteed, he said.

“Republicans definitely came out on the better end of that,” he said. “Not only the mid-decade redistricting, but the regular redistricting that happened in 2021 and 2022 actually moved a lot of seats out of competitive territory, especially a number of Republican seats.”

Republicans in states like Texas, Indiana and Oklahoma had redrawn suburban seats that had become more competitive to become more solidly Republican, and those seats have not quite reentered the playing field since.

Democrats Target GOP Territory

Democrats are hoping to overcome that shrinking battleground to expand the electoral map this year and flip more conservative seats this November.

The DCCC has expanded its Red-to-Blue program to include more conservative districts that voted for Trump by double digits in the 2024 election. For instance, they’ve added seats like AZ-02, CO-05, FL-13, KY-06, MN-01 and SC-01 to their target list.

These aren’t seats that have been viewed as particularly competitive, but rather “reach seats” that could become engaged in the right environment. As Trump’s approval slips, Democrats view these seats as more competitive.

Donahue said it’s important to watch whether Democrats start investing in these districts.

“The thing that I will look at is, does the Democratic Party committees and super PACs and whomever are out there, do they start making television ad revisions in Lexington, Kentucky or Charleston, South Carolina, where they are saying that we're going to compete in South Carolina 1, Kentucky 6,” he said.

Here is a look at the races considered to be a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

Trump Is Unpopular, But So Are Democrats

Trump’s approval has fallen to record lows in recent polls, but Democrats have not been able to use his unpopularity to fix their image problem.

In the latest Marquette Law School poll, Trump’s approval rating was 20 points underwater, 60 percent disapproving compared to 40 percent approving of the president.

But Congressional Democrats fared even worse, with 66 percent disapproving and 34 percent approving of them.

It surveyed 1,076 adults from July 22 to 29, 2026, and had a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points.

Polling has consistently shown that swing voters don’t particularly like Democrats but plan to vote for them in the midterms.

Why Are Democrats So Unpopular?

Democrats have been dealing with poor polling numbers over the past few years, particularly after the 2024 election. The party faced backlash over former President Joe Biden’s decision to run again and later dropped out amid age concerns.

The party’s poor standing with its own voters is a key element contributing to its poor approval numbers, Donahue said.

“A lot of people that identify as Democrats don't really like their own party for different reasons. A lot of moderates in the party think it's too liberal,” he said. “Some of the more progressives think it's too establishment, too moderate.”

Party leadership in D.C. has faced criticism from the party’s progressive flank over what parts of the base view as a feeble approach to the second Trump administration. Many Democrats have called for the party to fight back harder, a goal that others say is hard to complete as long as they remain in the minority.

Timeline: How House Vote Shifted in Trump Era

Republicans currently hold only a slim House majority, holding 218 seats to Democrats' 214 seats, so only a small lead for Democrats could cause the balance of power to shift. Here is a look at how the past few election cycles have gone in the Trump era.

Can Democrats Flip the Senate?

Democrats are generally favored to flip the House of Representatives, but the Senate presents more of a challenge this year.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority because Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in a 50-50 Senate.

Democrats are defending two seats in states Trump won in 2024, Georgia and Michigan. They view Republican-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024, and North Carolina, which he won by 3 points, as top pickup opportunities.

But no other Republican-held seats in states that Trump either won by single digits or outright lost are up for grabs this year. That means Democrats need to turn to more conservative territory to win a majority.

GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are viewed as potential pickup opportunities despite backing Trump by double digits in 2024. The Cook Political Report rates each of those races as tossups.

Prediction markets showed a close race for Senate control, with Kalshi giving Republicans a 53 percent chance of winning and Polymarket giving Democrats a 53 percent chance as of Tuesday.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

What Happens Next

Polls will continue to be closely watched ahead of Election Day on November 3, 2026.

Democratic and Republican candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters to try to win key races. Issues including the economy, inflation and the Iran war could shape the contours of the midterms.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Gray R. Thomas

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