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Democrats have flipped a Florida state House seat that includes Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, winning a special election in a district he carried comfortably in 2024 and handing the president a symbolic defeat in his own backyard.
The upset in Florida’s 87th House District adds to a growing string of Democratic special-election victories since Trump returned to office, raising fresh questions about Republican strength in red‑leaning areas as both parties look ahead to the midterms.
“Florida 87 is not core MAGA country, but voted heavily GOP in 2024," said Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics expert at the University of Surrey. "It seems local voters wanted to get a very clear message to the White House and Republicans at national level that whatever they're doing now isn't working."
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What Happened?
Democrat Emily Gregory won Florida’s 87th House District with just over 51 percent of the vote, defeating Republican Jon Maples, who was backed by Trump, in a special election to replace Republican Mike Caruso.
The district—stretching along the coast through Palm Beach Gardens, Jupiter, Juno Beach and Hypoluxo—has reliably favored Republicans in recent cycles. Caruso secured re‑election by 19 points in 2024, as Trump carried the district by 10.6 points, according to analysis of precinct data by VoteHub.
Unofficial results from the Palm Beach County supervisor of elections on Wednesday showed more than 33,000 ballots cast.
...
Gregory’s Strategy
Gregory centered her campaign on affordability and local quality-of-life issues, including housing, insurance and everyday expenses rather than Trump.
Asked about representing Trump, Gregory told CNN: “I mean I don’t think all of that much about it right, he’s one of 115,000 registered voters in District 87," adding that her opponent made Trump “forefront” in his campaign while she focused on “what all of us will do better with, with lower property insurance, with expanded health care and with strong public schools.”
In remarks reported by The Palm Beach Post after her win, Gregory reiterated that focus on local needs and said of the night, “It’s a pretty wild night... I’m still pretty shocked. We did it. We just did it.”
“It's notable that Gregory is a centrist Democrat who focused on bread-and-butter issues like affordability in the face of inflation in grocery and gas prices and healthcare costs, the latter after U.S. congressional Republicans let Obamacare subsidies expire at the end of 2025,” said Andrew Wroe, a senior lecturer in American politics at the University of Kent.
“This focus, plus her qualities as a mother, military spouse and small-business owner, made it hard for Republicans to paint her as a 'radical left Democrat," Wroe added. "Her opponent's full-throated endorsement by Trump, albeit late in the campaign, failed to move the dial in this local contest.”
Why Turnout May Not Be the Explanation
Although special elections are generally associated with lower voter turnout, political media organization VoteHub’s data science chief Zachary Donnini said in a social media post that the Democratic win was not the result of “quirky special election” turnout.
“The electorates were still double-digit Republican—and Democrats won anyway,” Donnini wrote.
Shanahan suggested another factor may have been at play—Trump's decision to enter the Iran war, which “seems to have played particularly badly,” he told Newsweek.
“While [Maples] would have no influence on foreign policy if elected to the state House, he did suffer from the spike in grocery costs and gas prices triggered by the Iranian war," Shanahan said.
A Broader Pattern?
“We should be wary about reading too much into the outcome of one-off special elections, especially to state legislatures, where many different local factors are in play," Wroe told Newsweek. "But this does seem to be part of a wider national trend in which Democrats are picking up seats won by Republicans in 2024."
In another Tuesday special election in the state, Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran and union leader, defeated Republican former state Representative Josie Tomkow in a closely contested race to succeed Jay Collins in Florida's 14th Senate District.
Tuesday’s results are the latest in a series of Democratic wins.
The Democratic Party has now flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump retook office, a development Democrats have pointed to as one to monitor heading into the midterms. Republicans however have dismissed the notion that a “Democratic wave” is taking place.
“These races have never been predictive of general elections,” Republican National Committee (RNC) National Press Secretary Kiersten Pels said in a statement.
What Did Each Party Say?
The RNC's Pels said: "The reality is that Democrats are consumed by infighting, factional warfare, and competing agendas that are tearing their party apart. Meanwhile, Republicans remain united behind President Trump and his America First policies that are lowering costs, strengthening our economy, and delivering real results for American families."
In a statement issued by the Florida Democratic Party (FDP) and the Palm Beach County Democratic Party, FDP Chair Nikki Fried said: "This victory reiterates an undeniable trend in Florida: with year round organizing and infrastructure investment, Democrats can run and win anywhere–including Donald Trump’s backyard. Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky high prices on everything from groceries, to gas, and healthcare. They are voting for trusted leaders like Emily to steady the ship and return common sense, people-centered solutions back to our communities."
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