Is Hurricane Florence Re-Forming, Coming Back As Tropical Storm? Forecaster Says It's Possible

It may sound like some strange weather conspiracy—talk that Hurricane Florence may re-form and come back to haunt the U.S. East Coast once again—but it's not out of question, a weather forecast said. And while it's highly unlikely the remnants of Hurricane Florence will become a powerful storm again, weather forecasters said it was possible for some impact next week or later along the East Coast, possibly even in the flood-ravaged Carolinas.

Consider that a week after Hurricane Florence devastated North Carolina and parts of South Carolina that the remnants of Florence are now out in the Atlantic trying to re-form, and the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 20 percent chance or organizing in five days. It's not likely to become another powerful hurricane, but eventually it could pour more rain into a region that doesn't need it.

Victoria Oliva, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Wilmington office, told the Wilmington Star-News that though there is a chance of the former Florence re-forming, "it is not likely to find the extremely favorable conditions that fueled Florence."

"It is moving very slow, and it is not in a good environment," she said. "Right now, it is just a small system of storms. But there is a lot of dry air and strong upper level winds that would create shear, which tropical storms don't like."

Steve Stewart, a meteorologist at ABC 11 in Raleigh, said on Twitter that the latest models on the disturbance "keep this relatively weak and just some showers possible along the coast before a front swings it back out to sea."

Labeled Disturbance 3 by the National Hurricane Center on Friday, the small storm system was given only a 20 percent chance of re-forming into an officially named tropical depression or storm within the next five days. But 20 percent is something, and it's worth monitoring, since Florence behaved in a highly unusual manner, striking the East Coast from a position in the Atlantic that rarely occurs. And, the National Hurricane Center said in its Friday morning update, Disturbance 3 may find conditions more conducive to slow strengthening next week.

"Although a combination of dry air and strong upper-level winds is expected to inhibit any significant development over the next few days, the environment could become conducive for slow development when the system moves over the southwest Atlantic Ocean during the middle part of next week," the NHC said.

If the system re-forms, it won't be called Florence again, since that name has been used and the storm has dissipated. The likely name next up would be Kirk, and it could impact the East Coast, possibly delivering more rain to the Carolinas.

"It could bring some rainfall, but that might be seven or more days out," Oliva said, according to StarNewsOnline. "Right now, it is all very, very unsure."

Meanwhile, parts of North Carolina and South Carolina continue dealing with widespread flooding from Hurricane Florence. Some areas received 30 to 40 inches of rain over days, and rivers are still flooding the region.

A new round of evacuations was ordered Friday in South Carolina as the trillions of gallons of water dumped by Hurricane Florence meander to the sea, raising river levels and threatening more destruction, according to the Associated Press.

An area of low pressure that developed in the wake of Florence has been given a 20% chance for development off our coast. Forecast models keep this relatively weak and just some showers possible along the coast before a front swings it back out to sea.

— Steve Stewart (@StewartABC11) September 21, 2018