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The first tropical storm of the 2025 hurricane season could develop before the end of May, meteorologists say.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said that favorable atmospheric conditions have emerged over the Pacific side of Central America, with a developing tropical rainstorm poised to become the season's first named system—Alvin—if it strengthens further.
Why It Matters
Hurricane season poses significant risk to the U.S, impacting states such as Texas, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and the wider Gulf Coast. Storm systems not only threaten coastal cities with wind but can also trigger widespread flooding and infrastructural damage.
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The 2024 season saw extensive damage, with major storms like Hurricane Beryl striking the Caribbean and Mexico, and later storms including Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton causing fatalities and economic losses estimated at $78.7 billion and $34.3 billion, respectively, according to the BBC citing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
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What To Know
Current observations identify a tropical rainstorm in the eastern Pacific that may further organize and earn the first name on the list for 2025—Alvin. Typically, the first named storm in this basin arrives by June 10, with last year's first Pacific storm, Aletta, forming unusually late on July 4, the outlet noted.
If the storm forms, it could precede historical averages and deliver locally drenching rain to the southwestern coast of Mexico, AccuWeather said.
Fox Weather reported a strong likelihood that the system could become at least a tropical depression within the next two days, though it noted that conditions appeared unfavorable for any significant impact on land.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15. It runs through November 30.
Forecasters at AccuWeather and the NOAA expect the Atlantic hurricane season—from June 1 to November 30—to be above average, with AccuWeather projecting 13 to 18 named storms and up to 10 hurricanes, including around three major ones.
The possibility of La Niña conditions developing later in the year could further boost hurricane activity as the season progresses, the outlet said previously.
What People Are Saying
Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said: "This tropical rainstorm we are watching could wander close enough to part of the southwestern coast of Mexico to bring locally drenching rain."
FOX Weather meteorologist Ari Sarsalari said: "It's going to probably be a well-put-together storm. It makes a little run at the Baja [California] Peninsula."
Sarsalari added: "There's a wall that it hits where the water is much cooler, and there happens to be a lot of wind shear—all things that tend to break up storms pretty significantly."
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek on Wednesday: "At this time, it looks like any significant impacts to the U.S. from this potential storm in the Eastern Pacific look unlikely.
"However, we do feel this system is likely to develop into at least a tropical storm and would take on the name of Alvin. At first, it looks likely to intensify as it moves roughly parallel to the west-central coast of Mexico.
"Then, as this potential storm moves northward and likely curls back eastward toward the coast of Mexico, it would move into a zone of cooler waters and higher wind shear. This would cause the storm to lose wind intensity, and it is possible it would even fall apart before any potential landfall. Thus, the main impacts from the storm are expected to be some locally heavy rainfall and rough surf and rip currents along some of the Mexican beaches."
What Happens Next
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes in the eastern Pacific for 2025. In comparison, the historical averages are 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, it said.
Update 5/28/2025, 1:31 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Dan Pydynowski.
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